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It could be your neighbors or the man who ran past you at the grocery store. Maybe it’s the last minute addition to Thanksgiving dinner or the friend who took off his mask next to you at the gym.
All over Los Angeles, COVID-19 is closer than ever.
One in 145 people in LA County is currently infected with the disease, according to a model released by health officials Wednesday. This is a big jump from just two months ago, when the rate was estimated at 1 in 880 Angelenos.
“Our situation is getting worse every day,” LA County health official Dr Muntu Davis said at a press briefing Wednesday where the numbers were released.
The county has recorded more cases of the coronavirus than ever this week, but the latest calculation suggests the actual number of people sick is even higher. The county uses a mathematical model to determine how many people – diagnosed or not – are actively contagious with COVID-19 and may spread it to others in the community, based on how many people end up in hospital every day, according to officials.
Based on figures reported up to Monday, county scientists have found that about 0.69% of the county’s residents, or about 69,000 people, can currently transmit the coronavirus to others. This does not include people who had the virus but are no longer contagious, or those who have been infected so recently that they are not yet contagious.
Across the country, epidemiologists calculate similar numbers, although the formulas used to reach their estimates often differ. Still, the numbers give some idea of how health officials are reflecting on the extent of COVID-19 in different parts of the country amid a crushing winter surge.
In Colorado, officials this week said that one in 41 people are currently contagious with COVID-19. Meanwhile, Chicago officials say as many as 1 in 15 could be.
Across the country, 3.6 million Americans were infected with COVID-19 on Sunday, or about 1 in 100 people, according to a model created by Columbia University epidemiologist Jeffrey Shaman and his team. “The majority of these contagious people are unaware of their infections,” Shaman said in an email to The Times.
Estimates attempt to overcome one of the most insidious features of this coronavirus: up to 40% of those infected show no symptoms. And for those who develop a cough or fever, studies have shown that they are very contagious to others before these signs appear, a major concern during the upcoming holiday season.
“We’re programmed to feel safer around family members or friends, so you’re more likely to let your guard down,” said Ali Mokdad, epidemiologist at the University of Washington. “That’s why winter is going to be dangerous for us, because we want to convince the symptom-free public to assume that you are infected and that you can spread the virus.”
When nearly 1% of the population can be a vector, bending the curve down becomes more difficult. Once transmission starts to accelerate, more people in the community have the virus, so the same activities that people have been doing for months become more dangerous. These activities make more people sick, which further increases the prevalence, and the cycle continues.
“There is just more COVID in our communities,” said Dr. Mark Ghaly, senior health official in California on Tuesday. “You are more likely to be infected with COVID simply because it is more available and more in our communities, even if you behave exactly as you did a month ago.”
Indeed, in LA County, health officials said the people who fell ill with COVID-19 in recent weeks did not make more trips to stores, restaurants, workplaces or elsewhere than those who fell ill a few months before. More people are just getting sick in the same places, they say.
“There are risks involved even in these seemingly benign interactions,” Davis said Wednesday. “The numbers continue to be alarming.”
Davis also reported a rapid increase in cases and hospitalizations in recent days in the county. The acceleration prompted the county to halt outdoor dining and institute a modified stay-at-home order this week. If the number of cases does not decline, hospitals could be full in a few weeks and the death toll could run into the thousands, officials said.
The county’s prevalence estimate is calculated by the Department of Health Services modeling team, which also predicts the demand for hospital beds and the county’s transmission rate, known as R. The figure prevalence was added in mid-June to try to help people. understand the far reach of the virus.
To calculate the percentage of infected, the model assumes that for every person sick enough to end up in the hospital with the disease, there are 39 more who are sick but did not go to the hospital, officials say. County.
Simply put, the number of people recently hospitalized with COVID is multiplied by 40. Data scientists then adjust this figure to exclude those currently hospitalized – since they do not infect other people in the community – and those who may have had COVID but are no longer infectious. The model assumes that each infected person is contagious for 2 to 5 days.
Department of Health Services Director Dr Christina Ghaly said that with so many sick people unaware, Thanksgiving could turn into a dangerous affair. She cited recent research which found that more than half of all infections come from people who did not show symptoms when they passed the virus on to others.
“They may not know they are infected… But they are out there and they are exposing other people to the virus,” she said. “This family meal is turned into an opportunity for COVID-19 to spread.”
One in 145 Angelenos infected with COVID doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll make others sick. Dating with contagious people can be made safer by masks, social distancing and limiting time spent together, especially in indoor environments, experts say.
Nonetheless, the prevalence of COVID-19 in the community is likely only to increase in the coming weeks, as the number of cases and hospitalizations continue to rise. The highest estimate ever documented in the county was in late June, when authorities said one in 140 people were infected.
These trends could be reversed with simple changes in behavior, but such improvement is not guaranteed, said Christina Ghaly.
“We are not seeing that happening yet, so I expect the number to continue to increase,” she said.
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