[ad_1]
One in three Los Angeles County residents have been infected with the coronavirus, according to new estimates from county scientists, a startling sign of how quickly the virus is spreading in the hard-hit region.
The estimate, based on scientific modeling, means officials estimate that more than 3 million of LA County’s 10 million people have been infected with the coronavirus, of which nearly 13,000 have died.
That’s more than triple the cumulative number of coronavirus cases confirmed by testing. Officials have long believed that tests only catch a certain percentage of those who are infected, as many of them either show no symptoms or only suffer from mild symptoms.
The growing number of people infected has actually slowed the rate of transmission of the coronavirus, as the virus increasingly comes into contact with people who have survived the infection and have likely developed immunity.
“Unfortunately, we are still engaging in behaviors that facilitate the spread of the virus, so it’s always able to find many people who could infect,” said Dr. Roger Lewis, director of demand modeling at the hospital. COVID-19 for the LA County Department. health services.
About 75% of the population of LA County will need to be immunized against the virus through generalized vaccinations to significantly slow its spread, Lewis estimated. Even though half of the population of LA County were immune, “and yet we decide to just pretend we don’t have to take precautions, we’re still going to have a very, very devastating pandemic.”
LA County has recorded on average more than 15,000 new cases of coronavirus per day over the past week – one of the highest such rates so far in the pandemic.
Exceeding 15,000 new coronavirus cases a day brings the county to a level that officials say could tip overwhelmed LA County hospitals into a worse disaster, deplete resources and stretch staff to a point that officials say. health might have to choose which patients receive the attention of critical care nurses and respiratory therapists and have access to ventilators; and which patients receive palliative care.
Authorities have urged residents to take even more precautions to avoid becoming ill.
When leaving their homes to access essential services, LA County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said people should bring disinfectant wipes to disinfect their cellphones, car keys, workstations and more. doorknobs – anything they might touch that others have touched as well. Health officials have also suggested avoiding eating or drinking with people outside your household, washing or disinfecting your hands every hour if you are with other people, and doing a break in your shopping.
They also issued a new recommendation: People who live with elderly residents or with residents with an underlying health condition and who need to leave their homes should wear a mask at home.
More than 1,600 dead in one week
More than 1,600 people in Los Angeles County have died from COVID-19 last week – a toll Ferrer called “tragic, heartbreaking and, frankly, overwhelming” and a sign of extraordinary danger as the variant may be most contagious of the virus begins to spread in California.
Follow virus precautions “as if your life or that of a loved one depends on it,” she said in a briefing Wednesday. “Because it can be fair.”
In the one-week period ending Wednesday, an average of 232 people died each day from COVID-19 across the county, according to data compiled by The Times. By comparison, the confirmed death toll from the Northridge earthquake – which struck Southland almost exactly 27 years ago – was 57.
In the past seven days, the county set and then tied its daily record for new coronavirus-related deaths, with 318.
Last week represents an acceleration, but not an aberration. A total of 2,904 LA County residents have died from COVID-19 in the past 14 days – a number that represents nearly a quarter of the county’s cumulative death toll, or just under 13,000.
“Your infection could lead to dozens of other infections in just a few days, and someone along this transmission path could very well die from COVID-19,” Ferrer said. “These are just not normal times, so we can’t go out and continue to act like nothing has happened.”
Ferrer did not rule out issuing additional restrictions.
“We are considering all options at this point,” she said on Wednesday, without specifying what the new orders might look like.
“We’re very, very concerned about the still high number of cases here,” Ferrer said, “and I feel like there really isn’t a big window here to try and contain the ramp-up. . “
COVID-19 hospitalizations stabilize, but at a high rate
In LA County, new hospitalizations related to COVID-19 have stabilized for now, with even hints of a slight decline. But hospitals are still overcrowded and hospital admissions are extremely high; the ICU at Memorial Hospital in Gardena, for example, is 320% occupied.
In recent weeks, an average of 700 to 850 new patients a day with coronavirus infections have been admitted to LA County hospitals – a number that has prompted hospitals to prepare for the need to ration care.
“This is three times higher than what was seen earlier in the pandemic,” said Dr Christina Ghaly, Los Angeles County director of health services.
While the stable numbers are good news, they likely represent a stabilization in transmission that took place after Thanksgiving – when LA County and California officials issued stay-at-home orders – but before Christmas. , Ghaly said.
It will take longer to see the effect of the Christmas and New Years gatherings on hospitalizations, said Ghaly: “We just don’t have the information available at this point to determine whether this wave has happened or no and, if so, how these numbers will climb. ”
If there was a sharp increase in the transmission of the virus during the holidays, “it would be absolutely devastating for our hospitals,” she said. Simply maintaining current levels of COVID-19 hospitalizations compromises the care of future COVID-19 patients and others who suffer from non-COVID illnesses and emergencies such as strokes and heart disease. heart attack.
“For there to be meaningful relief for healthcare providers, we need a rapid and significant drop in hospitalizations for a period of one to two months at a minimum,” Ghaly said. “Don’t let the current number of daily hospitalizations seem normal to you just because it’s leveling off. … This is unprecedented during this pandemic in Los Angeles County, and everyone should continue to worry about what could happen if hospitalizations start to rise again.
Even though transmission was relatively controlled over Christmas and New Years, with – on average – each infected person transmitting the virus to another person, Ghaly said, “we would still expect a very high continued demand for hospital services with a the continued limited supply of hospital beds – and particularly intensive care beds – over the next four weeks.
Hospital morgues are overcrowded
Hospitals across Southern California are overcrowded to an extent never before seen in modern history. In Ventura County on Tuesday, there were a total of 1,002 hospital patients – 448 of them infected with the coronavirus. “I don’t know if we’ve had that many hospital patients at the same time in our county before,” said Steve Carroll, Ventura County Emergency Medical Services Administrator.
“It doesn’t seem to be getting any better, unfortunately,” Carroll told the Ventura County Oversight Board. “All hospitals are overloaded at all times.”
The slight decrease in COVID-19 hospitalizations noted by state officials did not occur in Ventura County, where they reached an all-time high, said Dr Robert Levin, county health official from Ventura. “This week is critical. And I think we’ll know over the next five days or so by looking at our hospital census where we’re heading with this.
Some hospital morgues are full and hospitals are taking up to three days to get the dead out of their crypts and put them in a morgue. In some cases, a mortuary can only process four embalms per day and quickly cope with a save if more than four bodies per day are received. One morgue said it normally treated seven to eight families per week; it’s now 50, Carroll said.
Ventura County has recorded a total of 388 deaths from COVID-19; nearly half of them, 189, have been reported since mid-December.
“A lot of us watched what happened in New York and Italy and saw some horrific scenes. And we are getting closer, ”said Carmen Ramirez, Ventura County Supervisor.
Grandparents die
In Riverside County, there have been days when 10 of its hospitals are using 100% or more of the total authorized bed capacity, said Bruce Barton, director of emergency management for Riverside County.
In Orange County, COVID-19 is devastating families. Dr Clayton Chau, Director of the Orange County Health Care Agency, told the story of grandparents who were in the process of adopting their eighth-grade granddaughter whose mother has passed away cancer a few years ago.
“They just died from COVID. Both, ”Chau said at a supervisory board meeting on Tuesday, his voice breaking. “We need to do something quickly in our community. It’s not just about reopening our economy that’s important. But it’s about taking care of our vulnerable community. Our seniors are dying.
Times writer Dakota Smith contributed to this report, as did Paul Sisson, Jonathan Wosen, and Lori Weisberg of the San Diego Union-Tribune.
[ad_2]
Source link