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Michigan has certainly looked like a college football playoff contender for three weeks, but the competition it faces has fallen short. While West Michigan could have been the best of the three opponents so far given they just beat the ACC Pitt team, Washington and NIU are both 1-2 on the year, the first being the most likely to regain some momentum this season.
But it’s not just that the Wolverines win, it’s how they win.
Michigan is currently ranked # 6 in the ESPN SP +, which is an advanced predictive and opponent-adjusted tempo analysis model created by Bill Connelly. In this model, Michigan has the 12th best offense and eighth defense to go along with the second best special teams unit. While Ohio State is still ranked ahead of Corn and Blue, its struggles are apparent, and that led Connelly to an interesting conclusion: The Big Ten will get two teams in the college football playoffs this year, and the Buckeyes won’t be one of them. ($)
That leaves the door wide open to Michigan, which Connelly has spent most of his time talking about.
In the early days of Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan era, his Wolverines weren’t content to beat outmatched opponents, they make examples of them. They allowed 14 points in a five-game breakout streak in early 2015. They humbled Hawaii, Rutgers and Maryland by a 200-6 total in 2016. They’ve seen resounding wins since, but the advantage, the outright willingness to offend, was not quite the same.
On Saturday we had the clearest impression yet that Harbaugh’s 2021 Wolverines have regained their advantage. That they blew up an understaffed northern Illinois team was not in itself very telling; the lack of mercy they showed, however – even emptying the bench – could have been. Led 28-3 at the end of the first half, Cade McNamara went far to Cornelius Johnson for 87 yards. Running backs Blake Corum and blue-chipper Donovan Edwards scored on carries 51 and 58 yards, respectively, in the third quarter. The Wolverines have scored touchdowns on their first nine possessions, and after running 72 yards for a first quarter field goal, NIU has only gained 61 yards in their next eight drives. Final note: UM 63, NIU 10.
Michigan is 3-0 and has climbed to sixth place in the SP +. From a numbers standpoint, the Wolverines have been unassailable. Corum and receiver AJ Henning give them both versatility and true top speed. Hassan Haskins remains a powerful option in the backfield, and Edwards (15 carries for 117 yards this year) may soon be ordering more playing time. The fact that McNamara went up to 8 for 11 passing for 191 yards on Saturday might have appeased at least some of the “what happens when they really have to go?” Concerns that swelled over the course of two games, and Johnson’s long touchdown dropped clues as to who will advance into the receiving corps with frontman Ronnie Bell for the season.
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Of the 15 power conference teams with at least a 4% chance of going 11-1 or better, by SP +, five reside in the Big Ten. Even though Alabama and Georgia win in the regular season and gobble up two of the four college football playoff spots – which is obviously far from guaranteed – the quirk of the start of the season and the depth of options within the Big Ten could mean he has a chance to score the other two spots.
Of course, if Michigan achieves such a goal, they should probably win or get closer. Wisconsin already have a loss, but if they were to win the Week 5 game wouldn’t be a disaster if the Wolverines couldn’t win at Madison. Plus, Penn State continues to impress, as does Michigan State.
Of course, the only way to know for sure is to play the games, and the Big Ten game begins Saturday when Michigan Football hosts Rutgers at 3:30 p.m. EDT on ABC.
Stream college football games from SEC, Big 12, The American and more on ESPN +
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