2019 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Quarterback Tiers 7.0 and updated strategies

Last year, the top-12 quarterbacks averaged 23.4 Fantasy points per game. It's the most I've heard from the No. 1 passer group EVER.

Patrick Mahomes 'season for the ages had plenty to do with that, but so too did Matt Ryan' s huge campaign, Ben Roethlisberger 's blowout bonanza and Andrew Luck' s comeback season. They are averaged over 24 Fantasy points per game. In total, nineteen quarterbacks averaged over 20 Fantasy points per game, including part-time starters like Lamar Jackson, Carson Wentz and two guys on the same team (Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick)!

The position is not just deep, it's saturated. Fantasy points per week is not enough. You need to be greedy.

Now that you know that, you can answer these questions:

If you think Mahomes is going to throw for another 5,000-and-50, you're delusional. Those numbers are super rare. However, if you think he can come up with 80% of those numbers – some equivalent of 4,000 yards and 40 touchdowns – then you should target him. Fantasy quarterback again. Fantastic quarterback again.

But he's not only one who could come close to those numbers. Aaron Rodgers is one of the most successful groups in the world. Deshaun Watson is healthy again, as are his wideouts. Ryan and Baker Mayfield should uncork a lot of big plays behind good O-lines (Ryan's is better). Cam Newton's throwing motion is more compact, his receiving body appears on the brink of a breakout and he'll still run around a little. Carson Wentz has the best supporting cast of his career. A case can be made for all these fellas to find ridiculous numbers.

This is why fawning all over Mahomes is not the way to go. All of the others listed above should finish, or be relatively close to finish, in the top five. They are all in line for a 24-plus point-per-game average and are therefore differentiators at their position.

Your goal should be able to get one of these quarterbacks at a supreme value. It should feel like you're stealing. Mahomes in late Round 3 or Round 4 is a steal, as is Ryan Gold Mayfield in Round 7-plus. I've drafted Newton and Wentz in a bunch of analysts in Round 7 or 8, and I love it.

Now you know that the most leagues do not see quarterbacks fall that far. Mahomes could end up being a first rounder in your league. If so, let him and any other pass taken in the top 30 go. Taking one early is too risky. There are too many great players at other positions when you take a quarterback later on. Read that sentence again. Commit it to memory.

If plan is to pick up a big bargain with a top seven Fantasy quarterback, Plan B is to wait a little longer … and do the exact same thing. Luck's stunning preseason retirement leaves the position a little less deep, but there are still plenty of options. Jared Goff, Jameis Winston, Russell Wilson, and Kyler Murray offered ridiculous upside or significant stability (Wilson has both). You could make a similar case for Lamar Jackson. Even in a draft where Mahomes, Rodgers and Watson are taken in the top-40 picks, you could easily wait until Round 9 or later to get one of these signal-callers and rip off your opponents. Take them to the cleaners! Doing this takes advantage of your rivals' eagerness to take a quarterback. And, the risk is lower because you're spending a lot on one of them.

Old school versus new school: A lot of youth is being served at a quarterback, pushing names you know like Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady, but into Fantasy free agency! Is it warranted? Given the warts these "old" guys have, I think the ADP is about right. But that does not mean they'll be bad. Each and every one of them in the game-to-game consistency (yes, even Roethlisberger) and only Big Ben averaged over 24 Fantasy points per game (with Antonio Brown on his side). These folks are clearly great quarterbacks, but there's more upside down in other choices.

What about drafting two quarterbacks? This is a move you might consider if you speculate on Murray, Winston or Jackson. You may want to have a go at it in your case, but keep in mind that you will not be able to get away from it. It's not a must.

What about SuperFlex and two-QB leagues? In these cases, the strategy changes. Spending a top-40 pick on a quarterback is Encouraged. But do not take a second look at the depth of the situation. It's a safe bet that you'll be in a position to pay more attention to the quarterbacks when the other positions begin thinning out. That could happen around 45th overall in non-PPR leagues and 55th overall in PPR leagues. Plan accordingly. Additionally, make it a point to get three good quarterbacks – you'll need a third arm for bye weeks, an injury replacements and a trade bait.