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We will start this update at the top of the range where there have been some reshuffles on the first two starting lines since Saturday morning. That's largely thanks to the semifinal win of the Tennessee Volunteers SEC 82-78 semifinal against the Kentucky Wildcats (and another round of calculating numbers from me).
For the moment, the top two teams among the 68 players come from ACC, with the Virginia Cavaliers 29-3 at the top of the overall standings (at the top of the Eastern Region) and the 28-5 at Duke Blue Devils. in second place (anchorage to the South). Tennessee climbs to third place (leading from the Midwest), with the Gonzaga Bulldogs placing fourth and anchoring the West. The No. 2 seeds are the North Carolina Tar Heels, the Kentucky Wildcats and a pair of teams that will be in tomorrow's Big Ten tournament final, Michigan State Spartans and Michigan Wolverines.
The Selection Committee does not have an easy choice to determine the last two seeded No. 1. Here is an overview of what I took into account in my current projection.
- Virginia is at the top of the NET rankings and is tied with Michigan State for the highest number of Quad 1 wins in the country, with 12. The Cavaliers rank at the top.
- Duke is only third in the NET, but 10-4 in the Quad 1 games with second place on the national schedule. In addition, they seem to be back in the world with Zion Williamson, even though Bolden Brands is still missing. The Blue Devils are second for the moment.
- Third, things are starting to get tough. The Tennessee gets the nod even though the Volunteers are not in the top four NET (sixth in the standings this morning). But a pair of wins over Kentucky and this win over Gonzaga on Dec. 9, gives them the edge over the moment. However, if Tennessee lost to Auburn in the SEC tournament final tomorrow, it could fall again.
- Finally, Gonzaga is fourth, even with a defeat on the road against North Carolina (a match that Killian Tillie did not play for the Bulldogs). The Bulldogs are second in the NET, which should sit well on the selection committee. However, a comment by Committee Chair Bernard Muir, after taking a sneak peek at last month's slice, could worry Gonzaga fans.
The Bulldogs' magnificent defeat on Tuesday night against Saint Mary's is currently their worst defeat. But the Gaels entered today at the 32nd place of the NET. At the same time, North Carolina's worst defeat came down on Texas, ranked 38th (curiously, on the same floor of the Orleans Arena where the West Coast Conference Tournament is held), Kentucky has lost 50 years and the state of Michigan lost to Illinois in 109th place.
So, I keep Gonzaga on the top line based on the advice of the Committee.
- North Carolina could now rank first, at the expense of Gonzaga or in defeat of Tennessee tomorrow. The Tar Heels have these two victories on Duke, even though they went without Zion Williamson in the Blue Devils. In addition, I can not help but think that the Committee will not punish the UNC too much for losing by a single point Duke with Williamson playing.
To make matters worse, if Duke beat the Florida State Seminoles in the final of CCA's tonight's tournament, the debate over whether the Blue Devils or the Virginia No. 1 was ranked as a whole would be fascinating.
Down the line, teams waiting to see if they will win one of the last positions in the overall standings received good news this afternoon. In the American Sports Tournament, both potential poppers were eliminated, the Houston Cougars having resisted the Memphis Tigers, 61-58, and the Cincinnati Bearcats ahead of the Wichita State Shockers, 66-63. The Mountain West will also not put a surprise team in the pack, as the Utgies State Aggies impressed in the second half to defeat the San Diego Aztecs, 64-57. So the image near the cut line is almost identical to this morning.
The last four farewells: Miss Ole, Florida, Ohio State, TCU
Last four in: St. John's, State of Arizona, Temple, Belmont
Four first on: State of NC, Alabama, Indiana, Texas,
Next Four OUT: Oregon, Lipscomb, UNC Greensboro, Clemson
But it's still possible for a bubble drama to happen. As the MAC's top seed, the Buffalo Bulls are currently playing Bowling Green Falcons in the final of this conference in Cleveland. Then, later in the evening, the Oregon Ducks will hope to overthrow the Washington Huskies (10:30 pm ET) to win the Pac-12 title and possibly a third bid for this beleaguered conference.
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