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The 2020 NHL playoffs will continue through to the conference semifinals starting August 22 with the Colorado Avalanche taking on the Dallas Stars.
The Avs beat the Stars 4-0 in the playoff round robin, but the Stars won all four regular season games (including one in overtime and one in shootout). So will Nathan MacKinnon & Co. continue the offensive assault of their dominance of the Coyotes, or have they met their match in the defensive group of Dallas?
Note: Advanced stats are from Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, and Evolving Hockey
Learn More: Check out the full NHL Playoff schedule here.
What we learned in the quarterfinals: The Stars passed a major character test by knocking out the Calgary Flames in six games. Of course, they had a break when Matthew Tkachuk was injured, ripping the beating heart out of the Flames chest. But it was a tight, at times brutal, series that culminated in a seven-goal rally in Dallas after falling 3-0 in Game 6. They showed some good offensive chops unexpectedly and only occasional clues about their defensive ability – although having No.1 goaltender Ben Bishop “unfit to play” for much of the series might have helped.
The Avalanche? They were what we thought they were, owning their streak against an outclassed Arizona Coyotes team that needed 49 saves from Darcy Kuemper to win a game. The last two games of the five-game series were an evisceration, with Colorado edging Arizona by a 14-2 margin. (Hey, at least the Cardinals have some security.)
First line: Both teams put together the best-known versions of their best lines for the playoffs. Nathan MacKinnon (4 goals, 9 assists), Gabriel Landeskog (8 assists) and Mikko Rantanen (3 goals, 7 assists) combined for six 5v5 goals and have not given up any in eight games, with one a 71.66% advantage. It’s a trio that can take control of the games on their own, as Arizona discovered the hard way. Dallas handled Tyler Seguin (3 assists), Alexander Radulov (2 goals, 1 assist) and Jamie Benn (2 goals, 2 assists) for seven games. They beat their opponents 4-1 and had an expected advantage of 54.89% at 5 to 5. They are a talented trio. This is not, however, the MacKinnon line. Advantage: Avs
Front depth: The Stars’ top two scorers in the playoffs are not on their lead line. Rookie Denis Gurianov has six goals, including four in this Game 6 rally, while playoff hero Joe Pavelski has six. They skated with Mattias Janmark and Joel Kiviranta. Roope Hintz, who has struggled at times, has a line with Jason Dickinson and the always entertaining Corey Perry. Radek Faksa, Andrew Cogliano and Blake Comeau are an effective control line. The Avalanche invested in their depth last summer, and it paid off: Center Nazem Kadri has six goals and five assists for 11 points, second on the team. He saw the time with Andre Burakovsky (8 points) and Joonas Donskoi (6 points), both added last summer. Matt Calvert, Matt Nieto and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare are a solid control line. JT Compher, Tyson Jost, and resurgent defensive ace Valeri Nichushkin are also in the mix. Advantage: tie
Defense: This series features two of the best young defensemen in the NHL, who took back-to-back spots in the 2017 NHL Draft. Miro Heiskanen of the Stars (3rd overall) leads the team with 12 points for the playoffs and plays 26:06 on average with partner Jamie Oleksiak; Avs Cale Makar (4th overall) has seven points and is averaging 21:42 per game with partner Ryan Graves. But Dallas has another star defenseman beyond Heiskanen to John Klingberg, who has seven points in the playoffs and forms an effective duo with Esa Lindell. Andrej Sekera and Taylor Fedun round out the match, while Stephen Johns has been “unfit to play” for five matches. Colorado’s defensive depth includes Erik Johnson, Samuel Girard, Ian Cole and well-dressed Nikita Zadorov. All of their pairings went well at 5v5. Advantage: stars
Goalie: Bishop won Game 2 for Dallas, but it was Anton Khudobin (.919 save percentage) who started the others against Calgary while Bishop was sidelined. Something is wrong, as Bishop has given up four goals in each of his two playoff appearances. Colorado had one of the best goaltending tandems in the NHL with Philipp Grubauer (.937 playoff save percentage) and Pavel Francouz (.958), and nothing changed that perception. With Bishop not quite Bishop at the moment, the Avalanche gets the nod. Advantage: Avs
Framing: Dallas caretaker coach Rick Bowness is the third coach in NHL history to win a playoff series at age 65 or older. His work was not without criticism – like its use in explosive shelter Denis Gurianov – but it helped guide the Stars to a difficult victory in the series. Avalanche coach Jared Bednar has a really good idea of how this formation combines, is a constant presence behind the bench and is a bit underrated if we’re being honest. Advantage: Avs
Special teams: Colorado was 19th on the power play in the regular season, mainly due to injury. Now healthy, they’re on absolute heat: They posted a 30.6% conversion rate, the playoff best in eight games. Dallas is no slouch at 20.0% in nine games. Colorado have a slightly above-average penalty, although their 88.0% success rate has a lot to do with Arizona’s ineptitude. The Stars’ penalty was poor in the regular season (17th) and playoffs (76.7%). Advantage: Avs
Prediction: Avalanche in Sept. It has the makings of a fantastic series, as the cautious Stars veterans and stingy defense battle a Colorado side that has looked absolutely stuck from the start of the tournament. An upheaval isn’t out of the question, but given Colorado’s special teams, health and advantages, they find a way to win here.
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