2020 polls: Biden in the lead, Warren on the rise, Trump in action

Former Vice President Joe Biden is still at the helm of the Democratic primary, but he is likely to encounter weak points in his foundation, according to a poll group released in recent days. Senator Bernie Sanders has reached a plateau and Senator Elizabeth Warren is on the rise. Senators Kamala Harris and South Bend, in Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg hold firmly behind the top three.

At the same time, President Donald Trump seems to be in trouble as he prepares to formally launch his reelection campaign.

Several new national polls in 2020 told the same story about the Democratic candidates. Fox News and Economist / YouGov polls revealed Biden to be in the lead with around 30%, Sanders second and Warren third. Here are the longer-term trend lines from Real Clear Politics: Biden and Sanders support has declined, Warren is on the rise, while Buttigieg and Harris are above the rest of the market.

A real clear policy

National surveys have limited value, but the story seems to be the same in the early primary states. Some more nuanced polls, polling the voters of the Democratic primary on their degree of comfort with a given candidate, also suggest some erosion for Biden and Sanders, while others, like Warren and Buttigieg, estimate more and more voters .

Meanwhile, the vote for Trump continues to look bad. It is too early to draw any conclusions about Trump's bid for reelection, but he is under water in the key battlefield states that were key to his victory last time. His approval rate is still low. His internal polling station continues to flee and continues to look appalling. And although face-to-face polls have limited value at the start of the match, he seems to be losing against all Democratic candidates in a possible confrontation by 2020.

The current democratic primary vote 2020, briefly explained

FiveThirtyEight's national poll, taken from Nate Silver, suggests at least four to five-thirds of the 2020 Democrat candidates. Here they are, with their national polling averages from Real Clear Politics:

1. Joe Biden (31.5%). He is alone and still holds a considerable lead in national inquiries and in most early state elections.
2. Bernie Sanders (15.8%) and Elizabeth Warren (12.8%). At present, Sanders is still Biden's main rival, but Warren regularly ranks second or third in national and national surveys.
3. Pete Buttigieg (7.8%) and Kamala Harris (7.3%). They held up after Harris's strong start and Buttigieg's surprising rise in power.
4. Former representative Beto O'Rourke (3.5%) and Senator Cory Booker (2.3%). We cut the hair in four, but this pair tends to get at least a few percentage points of support in a given poll, which puts them one step above the dozen other candidates.
5. Everybody. No other candidate exceeds 2% in national polls, although Senator Amy Klobuchar (1.3%) and entrepreneur Andrew Yang (1.3%) are currently ranked first.

Democrats national surveys are only useful as a general indicator of support. But the survey of the first primary states reveals essentially the same story. CBS and YouGov conducted a poll of voters in the top 18 states on the main calendar and found the following results:

• Biden: 31 percent
• Warren: 17%
• Sanders: 16 percent
• Harris: 10%
• Buttigieg: 8 percent
• O'Rourke: 5%
• Booker: 2 percent
• Klobuchar: 2 percent

The stands resist. The same could be said of the new polls in South Carolina (Biden, 37%, Warren, 17%, Buttigieg, 11%, Sanders and Harris, 9%) and California (Biden, 22%, Warren, 18%, Sanders 17%, Harris 13%, Buttigieg 10%). CBS / YouGov's latest Iowa survey showed Biden leading at 30%, Sanders second at 22%, Warren a little further third at 12%, then Buttigieg at 11% and Harris at 5%.

You get the point.

To look at the primary from a different angle, a new Wall Street Journal / NBC News poll asked Democrat primary voters they were excited about a given candidate, comfortable with they had reservations about them or they were very uncomfortable. with the candidate. Biden and Sanders lost ground, while Warren grew in the estimation of Democratic voters.

We have such a long way to go; the first big moment of the 2020 election finally announces next week when candidates will run for the Democratic open primary debate. But this is the state of affairs that is coming in this decisive moment: Biden and Sanders at the top, but barely escaping from the field, with Elizabeth Warren the heels.

Donald Trump continues to vote badly in hypothetical confrontations in 2020

Now to the president. As Vox's Matt Yglesias pointed out last week, Trump's chances of re-election certainly look bleak, according to hypothetical face-to-face confrontations with top Democratic contenders in 2020:

If you look at Donald Trump's polls lately, you have the impression that he has problems getting re-elected.

A quinnipiac poll on June 11 showed that Trump was losing 40-53 to Joe Biden. He also went down 51-42 to Bernie Sanders, 41-49 to Kamala Harris, 42-49 to Elizabeth Warren, 42-47 to Pete Buttigieg and 42-47 to Cory Booker.

All plausible candidates at this time may be aware that only 40-42% of the population feels they are voting for Trump's reelection. Most people say that they want to vote for any Democrat, and the strongest trend to date indicates that better-known Democrats are doing better than the more obscure ones.

None of this means that Trump is a sure bet to losing the election in 2020 – public opinion can change quickly and there is nothing particularly predictive about such a remote ballot – but it's a pretty clear snapshot of public opinion at the moment.

The internal polls of the Trump 2020 campaign also continue to leak political journalists and that does not look good:

(The Trump campaign said these numbers were out of date and that Trump had disavowed them on Twitter, and it was reported that he had fired several of his investigators about leaks.)

Now, as a wise and experienced monitor of campaign polls, you might think that it is ridiculous to hold clashes for the November 2020 general election in June 2019 before the first Democratic primary debates and you, dear reader, have reason to think that. But some of the other indicators of Trump's reelection are equally dismal.

Trump is still really unpopular. It is generally quite unpopular in the most important states of the electoral battlefield. Here are the rough numbers for Trump in the states that should be competitive in the 2020 election, according to the latest Morning Consult data:

• New Hampshire: 39% approval, 58% disapproval
• Wisconsin: 42% approval, 55% disapproval
• Michigan: 42% approval, 54% disapproval
• Iowa: 42% approval, 54% disapproval
• Arizona: 45% approval, 51% disapproval
• Pennsylvania approval at 45%, disapproval of 52%
• Ohio: 46% approval, 50% disapproval
• North Carolina: 46% approval, 50% disapproval
• Florida: 48% approval, 48% disapproval
• Indiana: 49% approval, 46% disapproval

It's a dark picture. Wisconsin and Michigan were critical pieces of Trump's Electoral College puzzle in the American Midwest. He is now deeply unpopular in both states. Pennsylvania was perhaps his most surprising victory in 2016 and there are now 7 points under the water. Trump may be consoling himself for his Florida rankings, but it is the only state in which the president looks as strong as the day of the 2016 elections. Elsewhere, his support is strong. is damaged.

The most striking finding is perhaps in Iowa, where Trump beat Hillary Clinton by almost 10 points. Iowans disapproves of his professional performance by a margin of 12 points now, in an agricultural state hit hard by Trump's trade war. This would suggest that the president's personality cult will not totally inoculate him with the unpopular elements of his political agenda.

We still have a year and a half before the 2020 elections. These approval numbers are not identical to those of a face-to-face match with a specific Democratic candidate (although they have not been very encouraging. for Trump either). But they indicate the unusual weakness of the president in his reelection campaign.