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Nevertheless, we can look for trends early in the poll to determine what determines voter preferences. Specifically, are the early trends for this election similar to 2016, the year Trump managed to win a substantial portion of voters who did not like him? Or is it more like 2018, when Trump's approval rating was highly predictive of the vote choice for home runs?
Our CNN poll suggests that, at least against Joe Biden, the best-known and most likely Democrat candidate, he looks like 2018. In other words, feelings towards Trump are strongly correlated their voting preferences.
And that means a potential disaster for Trump.
Voter selection in the Biden / Trump match is almost perfectly predicted by Trump's approval. Of those who approve Trump, Trump leads 92% to 5%. Among those who disapprove of Trump, Biden is 95% ahead at 3%.
The result of this breakdown is identical to that of almost every other poll: Biden is currently leading Trump.
Indeed, the approval rating of Trump is only 44%, against 53% of disapproval among voters. To win in 2020, Trump can not have the election of a referendum on him if his approval rate is so low. He must win a substantial share of those who disapprove him. Until now, this does not happen.
We saw this same paradigm at the mid-point in 2018. Candidates at the House of Democracy won 90% of the disapproval of Trump's performance, while Republicans won 88% of the vote. Combining these statistics with the fact that Trump's approval rating (45%) was 9 points lower than his disapproval rating (55%), Republicans lost control of the House.
To win the victory in 2020, given his current approval rating, Trump needs voters' mood to be the same as in 2016. In this election, Trump had a low favorable rating of 38 %, against 60% of unfavorable. But he was able to beat Hillary Clinton because he won 95% of the votes, while only 77% of those who did not see it were successful.
Why is this same pattern not happening now? An important factor is that, at least against Biden, Trump does not benefit from an unpopular opponent, as he did in 2016. Biden currently has a favorable rating (51%), an additional 10 points than its unfavorable rating (41%).
At the end of the 2016 campaign, Clinton's favorable score (43%) at the end of 2016 was 12 points lower than its unfavorable rating (55%). A large number of voters (18%) do not like Clinton nor Trump and he won the election thanks to them.
Our poll confirms a simple notion: Trump will not win in 2020 unless his approval rate jumps or he does not face an unpopular opponent, as he did in 2016.
If neither of them happens, 2020 will be a referendum on Trump – like 2018 – and he will lose.
These numbers are why it should not be surprising to see Trump switch to Biden. He tries to create an unpopular opponent. We will see if it will work in the coming months. This could be the case, as Biden's favorable rating has already fallen on his return to the political scene.
Of course, even if Biden's personal notes diminish, it may not be so good for Trump. Biden still has a long way to go before winning the nomination. Democrats value eligibility more than ever, and if they feel that Biden is weak on this front, they will probably choose another candidate.
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