2020 presidential polls: Trump is late on Biden and all the demos

Daily polls show that President Donald Trump is lagging behind all Democrats in the 2020 general election, both nationally and in some states, even in Texas.

Democratic voters could rejoice at these signs that Trump will be a president with a mandate. Hillary Clinton regularly led Trump 10 points or more a year before the 2016 election. Polls conducted 14 months before an election are simply not predictive. Too many things can happen and feelings can change when the race becomes a Democrat in particular against a Republican.

Nor should we read too much, say the pollsters and the political handicappers, the differences in the way Democrats differentiate themselves from Trump in these polls. Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders could take advantage of the largest margins simply because they have the highest name identity among the Democrats of 2020. That does not necessarily mean that they were trump while Kamala Harris or Pete Buttigieg would have a hard time getting by. This could simply mean that fewer Americans have heard from them.

But we can still learn something from these surveys. Their message is quite simple: Trump seems weak. The president lags behind in the 40s in the lead, which is consistent with his stubbornly low popularity ratings. Many Americans seem to be totally engaged or are actively considering voting for someone else. This is not where the incumbent, after three years of activity, should be if he wants a second term.

The last hypothetical poll on the 2020 general election that you should know

Even in Texas, a long election dream for Democrats that is suddenly taken more seriously as a potential target for challengers, a new poll reveals that Trump not only questions Joe Biden (who is usually the best against him). Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Cory Booker and Kamala Harris also.

These were the latest figures in Texas from Latino Decisions, North Star Opinion Research and the University of Houston:

• Joe Biden 47%, Donald Trump 43%
• Bernie Sanders 48%, Donald Trump 42%
• Elizabeth Warren 44%, Donald Trump 42%
• Kamala Harris 45%, Donald Trump 44%
• Cory Booker 43%, Donald Trump 41%
• Julián Castro 44%, Donald Trump 41%

The real story is in the second half of the column, with Donald Trump stuck between 41 and 44% in Texas. The polls of the Washington Post and ABC News, just released, tell a similar story at the national level among registered voters:

• Joe Biden 55%, Donald Trump 40%
• Bernie Sanders 52%, Donald Trump 43%
• Elizabeth Warren 51%, Donald Trump 44%
• Kamala Harris 50%, Donald Trump 43%
• Pete Buttigieg 47%, Donald Trump 43%

Once again, the president does not break even 45% against any of his potential Democratic opponents.

It would be tempting to look at this survey and try to analyze the meaning of the marginal differences between the Democratic candidates. Are Biden and Sanders the most elective or the best known? Does Harris have the most complex case of face-to-face viability against Trump?

What these polls really tell us: Trump is in a weak position

The Democratic primary has been focused on the idea of ​​eligibility, but several different pollsters and handicappers – Democrats and unaffiliated – have said not to re-read the differences between the way different candidates are positioning themselves against Trump in these polls.

"The results tell us much more about the vulnerability of Trump than the strength of the different Democratic candidates against each other," said an investigator working with a 2020 campaign.

Trump has time to go back, but he does not seem as well placed as the last two presidents who won the second term.

There are other warnings if you look a little further than face-to-face numbers.

"Trump is sometimes slightly behind its approval rating in some of these polls, which is a worrying sign for a president who depended so much on the voters who loved him at the time and that Clinton was supporting "Kyle Kondik, editor at Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Policy Center," said.

Presidential approval notes have always been closely linked to voting behavior. Here is the average popularity rating of RealClearPolitics President, from the beginning of his presidency until now:

A real clear policy

Trump has always been unpopular during his first two years. Until now, at his best, he was 7 points more unpopular than popular. A recent rise quickly eroded. And as Vox's Ezra Klein wrote last summer, it's in defiance of a relatively solid economy:

"The number of Trump polls is probably 20 points lower than a president where consumer sentiment is as high as today," said John Sides, a political scientist at George Washington University, who analyzed approval of economic indicators by presidential approval.

Here is what we can say: judging by the economy, which is the traditional engine of presidential approval, the number of polls Donald Trump should be much, much higher than today. Far from finding a winning strategy, he seems to have found a loser despite a winning hand.

And that's the key to Trump and why his presence with voters seems so dangerous. Trump beat Clinton among voters who do not like the two candidates with a stark margin: 50% of those voters supported Trump versus 39% going to Clinton, according to CNN. But he can not count on the same chance this time, while the election is more likely to serve as a referendum to his first term.

If Trump does not win people, then his path to victory becomes incredibly narrow. His low approval rate associated with this poor performance in hypothetical face-to-face meetings suggests that he is not.