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by Mark Murray
WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump faces formidable obstacles in his bid for re-election, according to the latest NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll.
Just four in 10 voters say they would re-elect him next year; 58 percent do not think he's been honest and truthful about the Russia probe; and 60 percent disapprove of a recent national emergency declaration to build a border wall.
But Democrats who want to defeat Trump have hurdles of their own. The president's job rating remains stable with nearly 90 percent of Republicans approving of his job. And a majority of Americans remain confident in the economy, believing that there will be a recession in the next year.
Add it up, and say the Democratic and Republican pollsters who led the NBC / WSJ survey.
"It's a 45-55 against the president at this stage of the game," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart.
Bill McInturff, a GOP pollster, added, "As long as these economic numbers look like this, that always keeps an incumbent president in the race.
And Fred Yang, another Democratic pollster, argues that the contours of the race will change to an official Democratic opponent to Trump.
"Another lesson we are having, is that elections are a choice between candidates and a referendum on one candidate," he said.
The NBC / WSJ poll – conducted Sunday Feb. 24 to Wednesday Feb. Trump's presidency, highlighted by the congressional testimony by his lawyer and Michael Cohen's, failed nuclear negotiations between the United States and North Korea, and the Democratic-led House of Representatives voting to reverse Trump's emergency declaration on the border.
Still, attitudes about the president remain steady, with 46 percent of Americans.
The top groups of Trump: Republicans (88 percent), rural residents (60 percent), whites without college degrees (60 percent), men (54 percent) and whites overall (54 percent).
The top groups disapproved: African Americans (88 percent), Latinos (64 percent), women (61 percent), those ages 18-34 (57 percent), whites with college degrees (55 percent) and independents (51 percent).
Forty-one percent of registered voters say they will "definitely" or "probably" vote for Trump in 2020, versus 48 percent who say they will "definitely" or "probably" vote for the Democratic candidate.
These numbers are worse than what Barack Obama faced at this time when they said they would vote for him, while 40 percent would vote for the Republican opponent.
But they're on the table with Bill Clinton's numbers in January 1995, when 38 percent said they'd vote for Clinton, versus 42 percent who said they'd pick the generic Republican candidate.
Both Obama and Clinton won their re-election contests.
The most popular (and unpopular) presidential characteristics
The NBC / WSJ also tested 11 different presidential characteristics.
The most popular: An African American (a combined 87 percent of all voters say they are "enthusiastic" or "comfortable" with that characteristic), a white man (86 percent), a woman (84 percent), and someone who is gay or lesbian (68 percent – up from 43 percent in 2006).
The least popular: A Muslim (49 percent are enthusiastic or comfortable – up from 32 percent in 2015), someone over the age of 75 (37 percent) and a socialist (25 percent).
And about socialism, just 18 percent of Americans say they view the term positively, versus 50 percent who see it in a negative light.
The numbers for capitalism are almost the opposite: 50 percent positive, 19 percent negative.
Democratic voters pick boldness over pragmatism
With the first Democratic presidential contests a place from now, 55 percent of Democratic primary voters say they prefer a nominee who proposes policies that could bring major change (despite their cost and difficulty passing into law), as opposed to 42 percent who say they would rather support someone whose policies might bring less change.
What 's more, 56 percent of Democratic primary voters say they want to get away from it, but 40 percent say they prefer someone who gives the party the best chance to defeat Trump in 2020.
"I think we're getting early signals from the Democratic Republic of the United States that they're looking for bigger and better people on the policy," said McInturff, the Republican pollster.
Also when it comes to the 2020 election, a minority of Americans – 38 percent – say the two-party system is seriously broken and the country needs a third party. But that's the highest percentage on this issue dating back to 1995.
And when it comes to the Republican Party, 37 percent of GOP primary voters say they 'd like to see another Republican challenge Trump for the party' s presidential nomination, while 59 percent say they 're opposed.
Nearly 60 percent say Trump has not been honest
Only 37 percent of all Americans say they believe in the election, while 58 percent say they disagree.
75% of Republican respondents say they believe Trump has been honest and truthful, versus 27% of independents and 6% of Democrats.
Forty-eight percent of all respondents say special counsel Robert Trump's presidency, compared with 47 percent who say it's given them no more doubts.
And two-thirds of Americans – 66 percent – say they want Mueller's findings to be released to the public.
Optimism and pessimism about the economy
As for views on the economy, 53 percent of Americans say they believe the United States will be in recession in the next 12 months, compared with 33 percent who disagree.
But when asked about their own economic situation, 59 percent say 2019 will be a year to hold back and save because they are ahead, while 34 percent think it will be a time of expansion and opportunity.
The NBC / WSJ poll was conducted Sunday Feb. 24 to Wednesday Feb. 3.3 percentage points. 3.3 percentage points.
The survey also measured registered voters (plus-minus 3.7 percentage points), 247 Democratic primary voters (plus-minus 6.3 percentage points) and 210 Republican primary voters (plus-minus 6.8 percentage points).
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