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According to a new poll by the Des Moines Register / CNN, former Vice President Joe Biden's candidacy as a race favorite is not as certain as some other polls suggest.
The survey – led by Ann Selzer, a Des Moines-based pollster, widely recognized as the leading pollster in this key state – brought together nearly 600 likely participants from the Democratic caucus. It is true that Biden remains in the lead, but a number of challengers are gaining ground.
According to the survey, support for Biden would be 24%. Senator Bernie Sanders is at 16%, Senator Elizabeth Warren at 15%, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 14% and Senator Kamala Harris at 7%. No other candidate has more than 2% support. The current Mayor of New York City, Bill de Blasio, had a particularly depressing result: he did not receive the support of any of the respondents – not just zero percent, but he did not receive the support one respondent.
Although Biden is still leading the rankings, his campaign may have reasons to be worried. In December, the same survey found that his support was 32%. then in March, it had fallen to 27%; and now he is at 24% – still in first place, but more in a clearly dominant position.
It is important to keep in mind that in caucus states, the second (or even third) choice of voters can be taken into account in the final result. If a candidate does not meet the minimum threshold of 15% support in a local venue, each supporter has the opportunity to transfer support to another candidate. With a field as large as the one that currently exists, it is quite possible that some caucus members will be forced to choose another candidate to support. For this reason, the Iowa survey gave respondents the opportunity to give three levels of support possible to each candidate: first choice, second choice or "actively consider".
When the three levels of support (by those who planned to vote in person) were added, Biden once again surpassed the list of candidates, with 61% support possible. However, Warren matched him exactly, with 61% support possible. Three other candidates manage to obtain a potential support of more than 50%: Sanders at 56% and Buttigieg and Harris, who each held 52%.
Elizabeth Warren is one of the main beneficiaries of this survey: she was only at 8% in December and then at 9% in March. But she has now reached the support of 15% overall, in a dry heat with Sanders for second place behind Biden.
"It's a good performance for Elizabeth Warren," said Selzer at register. "I think all the advertising lately and all the polls are so heavy weight that for it to have a metric that shows equal (with him) … he tells me that there are people who pay attention . Again, in such an important area, this is the first step. First, you must attract people's attention. "
Harris also appears to be a potential candidate in Iowa, despite her current 5th place. Although the Californian senator was not the first choice of many voters, the same number of people mentioned it, as well as Elizabeth Warren, as a second choice (14%) and as a candidates, they "actively considered" (32%). Harris did not quite have the same name in the state as Biden, Warren or Sanders, with 23% of respondents saying they did not know exactly what they thought of her. . While she continues to campaign in Iowa, her status could improve in much the same way as Warren.
Bernie Sanders seems to be stuck on the spot. In the December elections, his support was 19%, then 25% in March, but he has now returned to 16% among teenagers. These figures mark a clear retreat from the 2016 election cycle, when he had almost competed with Hillary Clinton in the Iowa caucuses, and show that he has a lot of work to do in a divided domain.
Beto O'Rourke, however, did not stagnate; his support has decreased considerably. In December, the poll showed that the former Texas congressman got 11% support from supporters of the Iowa Democratic Caucus. This declined to just 5% support in the next survey in March. And this latest poll of the same pollster sees its base to be reduced to only 2%.
Pete Buttigieg knew the opposite trend. In March, he enjoyed only 1% support. (He was not included in the December poll.) He is now at 14%, almost equal to Warren. Although he seems to have won supporters, one could argue that he must be on guard and work to ensure that he does not suffer the same recessionary cycle as O'Rourke's.
The effect of the virtual caucus
In previous election cycles, participation in the caucus was limited to those physically present at the local caucus sites. This campaign cycle, however, will allow the party to participate online or by telephone in what is called a "virtual caucus". Those who participate in the virtual caucus will decide 10% of the delegates rewarded, while 90% of the delegates will be chosen. by the participants in person.
The survey found that potential voters in the virtual caucus currently had a lower level of education than potential voters in person: 49% of potential virtual voters had a four-year college diploma, compared to 63% of those who did. expected person. However, potential members of the virtual caucus are also younger than the participants in person and can be enrolled in the school. Their support for candidates also seemed more moderate than potential voters in person.
At the moment, expected virtual voters have levels of support that are different from the overall average: Joe Biden is at 33%, Bernie Sanders at 10%, Kamala Harris at 10%, and Pete Buttigieg at 9%. Elizabeth Warren is the only leading candidate to benefit from virtually equal support from both groups, with 14% of potential virtual voters.
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