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The Baseball Hall of Fame will announce its 2021 promotion on Tuesday night. Notable names like Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling and Scott Rolen are among the players on this year’s ballot, but it is possible that no player will be voted this year. The full 2021 bulletin can be viewed here.
The rules: A player can be registered on the ballot after five years of retirement. Players who obtain at least 75% of the ballots returned by qualified BBWAA voters advance to the Hall of Fame. Those who get less than five percent fall out of the ballot. Those between five and 75 percent can stay on the ballot for up to 10 years. BBWAA members who are active and in good standing and have been for at least 10 years can vote for 0 to 10 players each year.
And here are the details of the selection show:
2021 Baseball Hall of Fame Class Announcement
- Time6 p.m. ET
- Dated: Tuesday January 26
- TV channel: MLB Network (coverage begins at 3 p.m. ET)
- Direct: fuboTV (try for free)
Below are six scenarios to watch out for when the vote totals are released on Tuesday night.
(NOTE: When I say “early returns,” I’m usually referring to the indispensable Vote Tracker of Ryan Thibodaux and his team.)
1. Penultimate chance for a trio of big names
Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds are the top three candidates in the poll this year. Summaries from the field, in terms of stats, indicate that Clemens and Bonds are some of the best players to ever play while Schilling is a legitimate Hall of Fame member.
And yet, here we are.
Bonds and Clemens are both linked to the use of performance-enhancing drugs in addition to being accused of serious off-screen indiscretions. Schilling got less support during his early years on the ballot, and as things persisted, he made his road incredibly difficult with inflammatory rhetoric.
Last year Schilling got 70% of the vote while Clemens was at 61 and Bonds at 60.7.
The modest gains of Clemens and bonds over the past few years suggest that they will again be insufficient. Schilling has already shown losses this time around from people voting for him.
The best bet is that none of the three succeeds, judging by the early returns.
This is the ninth time on the ballot for the three, preparing them for a final round on the 2021 ballot.
If they are missing, chances are no one will …
2. It could be an empty class
It is rare to have a ballot where the BBWAA does not elect anyone, but it is not without precedent. The last time no player voted using this method was in 2013. This also happened, in reverse chronology, in 1996, 1971, 1965, 1960, 1958, 1950 and 1945.
This election has a very good chance of joining this group without any player getting 75% of the vote.
Take note that this would not mean a totally empty ceremony at Cooperstown this summer, assuming the COVID-19 situation is under control enough to have one. That’s because the 2020 ceremony was canceled last July and this class has Derek Jeter, Larry Walker, Ted Simmons, and the late Marvin Miller still enshrined this year.
Yet, if there is no BBWAA class for 2021, it would be the first totally empty class since 1960. I’ve already developed the story behind this here.
3. Will the novices survive?
Keep in mind that it’s incredibly difficult to enter the Hall of Fame ballot before soaking up the sentence I’m about to write. A player must be in the majors for 10 years and even then he is not guaranteed to be successful. Dan Uggla, CJ Wilson and Adam LaRoche were among the eligible players in this ballot who were excluded. Again, keep this in mind when I say the following:
This freshman class was one of the weakest we’ve seen recently. It is possible that each newcomer will become unique.
Early feedback suggests there is a chance Mark Buehrle will surpass 5%, although he has little hope of reaching 75% even though he’s 10 years old. He’s probably the only one with a chance to stick around for a second year and even he could miss the cup.
Torii Hunter and Tim Hudson also saw enough early support to get them to hit the five percent mark, although the smart money was way below.
Aramis Ramirez, Shane Victorino, AJ Burnett, Barry Zito, Nick Swisher, Dan Haren, Michael Cuddyer and LaTroy Hawkins will certainly miss their chance. To repeat, this is far from an insult. It is a great compliment to their admirable careers to stand at the polls.
4. Who has the momentum?
We are now past the fail and fall guys part and move on to what the returns mean for years to come. For Hall of Fame junkies like me, this is the fun part.
It is possible that the following players have enough momentum to believe that Cooperstown is within reach.
- Scott Rolen is in his fourth year on the ballot and it looks like he will break 50 percent after his debut with just 10.2 percent. He had a throw of over 35% last year and a move to over 50 with six years left means he’s a good bet to get there eventually.
- Todd helton went 16.5 percent, then 29.2 percent in its first two years. Especially with Walker now and hopefully the Coors Field stigma starts to wear off a bit, look for another big leap. If it goes over 50 or even just 40%, the chances of success soon would be great. I doubt he needs the 10 years, but always keep an eye on his percentage.
- In his first three chances, Billy Wagner was between 10.2 and 11.1 percent. Then it went to 16.7 and 31.7. This is his sixth try, so it will still be a tall order, but another big win on the percentage front would give Wagner a real shot here with four years left. Again, keep an eye out for this one. I would say he needs to see at least 40 and probably even closer to 45% to feel optimistic about the dedication.
- Gary Sheffield went through five voting cycles without even getting 14% of the vote, but rose to 30.5% last year. He’s only got three chances left, so it’s still an uphill battle, but getting up in the mid-40s would be reason to hope – and we all know “hope is a good thing”, like Red learned it one day.
- Andruw JonesThe first two years showed 7.3 and then 7.5%, but he jumped to 19.4% last year and it looks like he’s ready to take another significant jump. With six years left and a possibly rising vote percentage, seeing anything 30-35% here would lead me to believe he’s on the right track.
- Andy Pettitte went from 9.9% to 11.3% and needs a much bigger boost than advancing for a shot. He’s more of an “old school” candidate than others here and that means he could end up showing himself much higher than what we’ve seen on the public ballots so far. If he reaches 20% here, he is a legitimate candidate to move forward.
- Bobby Abreu only got 5.5% of the vote on his first try last year, but there seems to be a bit more movement towards him. Keep an eye out here. Could it go to almost 15%? If so, the odds shift to realistic territory.
5. Who is losing speed?
On the flip side, Omar Vizquel appears to be losing what looked like a Hall of Fame trajectory in voting. In just three years, Vizquel has gone from 37 to 42.8 to 52.6%, but he has a decent number of lost votes so far. Vizquel is currently under investigation by Major League Baseball into allegations of domestic violence.
6. And who is stagnating?
The following players appear to be on the water until their 10 years on the ballot are up.
- Manny Ramirez has two suspensions related to PED from his playing days and on four occasions on the ballot only increased his percentage from 23.8 to 28.2. There seems to be a plateau for players connected to DEPs and given that he is the only one on this poll with a DEP suspension, chances are this thing is playing out just as a formality. If it goes up more than 35%, I’ll be more careful.
- Jeff Kent through six cycles never cracked 18.1 percent, but rose to 27.5 percent last year. Early returns suggest he won’t make another big dent, however, and he’s only two years away after this one.
- Sammy Sosa is in its ninth ballot and topped last year at just 13.9%. It could go up, but it does not come close to the necessary 75%.
Here. You are now ready to see the full results of Tuesday night’s vote with a good idea of what it all means after the rudimentary “who’s and who’s missing?” We will have full fallout coverage after the vote is released.
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