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The possibilities for the Detroit Lions with the seventh pick overall in the 2021 NFL Draft are almost endless. They could add their quarterback from the future. They could find a receiver to fill the urgent need. There’s also a good chance Detroit has a chance against the top defensive back in the draft, whether it’s Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons or whoever you think is this year’s best defensive lineman in the class.
But Athletic’s Dane Brugler takes an entirely different path in his latest simulation project. With the top three quarters off the board – Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars), Zach Wilson (Jets) and Justin Fields (Panthers via trade) – the Lions would be in a pivotal position throughout the draft.
Trey Lance is still on the board, and many see him as the last top quarterback in this class. So Brugler picked up the Lions’ phone, and they ended up going to 19. But here’s what they get from the quarterback-hungry Washington football team.
Washington receives
- Lions first round pick (# 7 overall)
Lions receive:
- Washington first round pick (19th overall)
- Washington third round pick (82nd overall)
- Washington’s 2022 first-round pick
The 12-spot loss is significant, and that likely means Detroit would put itself out of the way for a top-notch player in this class. However, the feedback here is important. Detroit picks up a third round pick, giving them three in this round to go with their own original (72nd) and the Rams (89th). Trade also adds another First-round pick in 2022, which would mean Detroit would have five first-round picks in the 2022 and 2023 drafts combined. I’m already sweating.
By consulting the table of exchanges, here are the values of these choices:
Washington: 7th overall = 1500 points
Detroit:
- 19th overall = 875 points
- 82nd overall = 180 points
- First round pick in 2022 =?
Total points = 1055 + first round pick in 2022
For that trade to be even, the first-round pick received from Washington next year must be worth 445 points, which is equivalent to the 45th overall pick, roughly midway through the second round. So if the Lions are eyeing a first-round pick for next year with about the same value as a similar pick this year, that trade is strongly in their favor. However, it’s common practice in the NFL to narrow down a pick next year as a round later in this year’s draft. So it makes sense to have that first round pick in 2022 with the value of a second round in the middle of that year.
What could the Lions actually do with this draft? Brugler gives Notre Dame Lions linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah the 19th overall pick. Owusu-Koramoah is the tweener linebacker / safety combo that has become all the rage in the NFL today, where speed is required at all levels of defense. In just two years with the Fighting Irish, Owusu-Koramoah has grown into a huge playmaker, totaling 24.5 tackles for loss, 7.0 sacks and seven assists defended in 25 games.
Chris Burke of Athletic picked up where Brugler left off and finished the Lions simulation to see what the whole race would look like. With the additional third round pick, Burke selects UCLA defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa to go along with a slew of defensive selections along with Detroit’s other picks.
It’s a tempting combo simulation project, because we know the Lions take a long-term view of this franchise. It may hurt to miss a top player, but if Detroit is truly committed to building a strong, young foundation, it’s a scenario GM Brad Holmes must seriously consider.
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