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If the numbers don’t lie, Mac Jones is an elite quarterback. Right? He completed 77.4% of his passes at a phenomenal 11.2 yards per attempt with 41 touchdowns, four interceptions and just 10 sacks all season in Alabama’s perfect 13-0 campaign.
After watching his movie, I can tell you with confidence – this is not an elite hope. But before we explain the reasons why, let’s not get anything twisted. I respect Jones for the job he did taking over from an injured Tua Tagovailoa in 2019, and there is no doubt he deserves praise for the season he has compiled on the most offense. explosive Alabama show in program history en route to a national title.
He belongs somewhere relatively early in the 2021 draft. His film is littered with impressive and accurate throws at every level of the pitch, and every once in a while one of those throws happens after getting through the chaos in the field well. poached. Jones has pocket-sized precision and drift skills going for him, and those are important traits to have in the toolbox when a quarterback enters the NFL.
The question with Jones is – what time should he be picked? First half of the first round? On the first round at all? Day 2? I would lean towards the latter. Let me explain why.
The numbers can lie and the context is the polygraph test.
Of Jones’ 424 attempts this season, 145 of them have been thrown at catchers at or behind the line of scrimmage, good for a 34.1% rate. It is high. Really high.
Here’s how the chosen first-round quarterbacks in the last two iters stack up in this statistical category:
- Joe burrow (LSU ’19) – 16.6%
- Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama ’19) – 31.7%
- Justin herbert (Oregon ’19) – 28.9%
- Jordan love (State of Utah ’19) – 28.5%
- Kyler murray (Oklahoma ’18) – 31.2%
- Daniel Jones (Duke ’18) – 22.1%
- Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State ’18) – 25.7%
It was impossible not to marvel at the skill position talent in Alabama this season – and really over the last five or so years – skill position talent that has steadily taken a two yard drag route and the turned into a 50 yard road. hit or blew the cover of the man on the sideline for field flipping gain.
Of Jones’ 4,500 passing yards, more than half (53.5%) was from yards after the catch. And absolutely, sometimes YAC can be helped by a super-precise pass or a quarterback thrown to the right receiver in rhythm. Jones did these things in 2020 for the Crimson Tide. But check out how his YAC percentage of 53.5 compares to that same group of recent first-round passers-by:
- Joe burrow (LSU ’19) – 45.6%
- Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama ’19) – 60.7%
- Justin herbert (Oregon ’19) – 52.7%
- Jordan love (State of Utah ’19) – 43.7%
- Kyler murray (Oklahoma ’18) – 48.3%
- Daniel Jones (Duke ’18) – 50.4%
- Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State ’18) – 51.5%
Alabama quarterbacks Jones and Tagovailoa, with the highest rates, suggest it’s a ploy. And it certainly is. But I don’t feel as good about Tagovailoa’s future after what he showed as a rookie than I felt before the 2020 draft. His perfect environment with the Crimson Tide, slightly above athleticism average and limited arm talent were my biggest concerns with Tagovailoa as a prospect, although I liked his precision, anticipation and decision making.
And who describe many of these concerns?
Jones. I actually think he put more high-caliber pocket drifts on the film than Tagovailoa before his injury last season, but he’s not as athletic and his arm skill isn’t as impressive.
In 2020, only 11.3% of Jones’ passing attempts were made from the pocket – again, diagram – but that low number indicates his lack of playing ability, an increasingly important skill for the quarterback. modern rear. For comparison, Justin Fields, who many rightly criticize for some awkward improvisations, threw 21.5% of his passes outside of pocket friendly limits this season.
Could Jones land in a good team at the end of the first round, sit for a season and ultimately become a successful passer? Yes. But he’s going to need a lot of assets around him. A robust offensive line, a deep and dynamic receiving group and an innovative offensive coordinator that won’t require Jones to make too many narrow window shots and accentuate screen and RPO games. Remove any of these and Jones is at risk of falling apart due to his lack of Supreme Physical Traits.
Now to me that doesn’t describe a quarterback I want to pick in the first round. Round 2 or Round 3? It seems fair. But, after Jones’ season and career, there’s a good chance he’ll be selected as a top 32 pick at the end of April.
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