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As the 2021 Players’ Championship draws near, the key question everyone is asking is the same in the world of golf: who do you pick to win at TPC Sawgrass? With formidable, star-studded terrain – and just a month away from the Masters – the first big event of 2021 is set to be an epic race starting in the first round on Thursday.
There are plenty of intrigues this week and the last player to win on this course – Rory McIlroy in 2019 – leads them. McIlroy hasn’t won since fall 2019, and in recent weeks he’s lamented a game that isn’t sharp enough. He was at the epicenter of the 2019 players (for his victory) and the 2020 version (for his leadership through the stop of COVID-19). Will it be again this year?
Joining McIlroy is Jordan Spieth (three top five in four events) and last week’s champion (and winner of three of his last 15 events), Bryson DeChambeau. We could go on for hours on end on the rest of the storylines, but these are three that appear with Players on Bridge.
So what’s going to happen this week at TPC Sawgrass? Let’s take a look at a full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts, as well as a full list of 2021 Players’ Championship odds. All odds via William Hill Sportsbook.
2021 Players’ Championship Expert Picks & Predictions
Kyle Porter, golf writer
Winner – Patrick Cantlay (22-1): If you look at the hits won, he was the best player in the world in 2021. Much like his Presidents Cup partner Xander Sc Chaudele, Cantlay doesn’t have a hole in the game. It opened with 67 last year before the whole thing was canceled. I’ve been ready to choose him for this event for about six weeks now.
Sleeper – Corey Conners (80-1): What’s not to like here? He’s been a better start for the green this year than Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau, and just came narrowly last week at Bay Hill. You could also tell me about Sergio Garcia at 70-1 or Joaquin Niemann at 50-1, but I like Conners more at this number.
Top 10 lock – Jon Rahm (16-1 to win): There is no lock in the top 10 at TPC Sawgrass, but Rahm scores the top 10 as often as anyone in the world (58 official starts out of 114 worldwide, 51%). He is seventh in the world this year in strokes won from tee to green and is going a bit under the radar (for him).
Star Who Definitely Won’t Win- Rory McIlroy: No one has ever defended successfully here, and every winner since 2004 (except Tiger Woods in 2013) was a first-time champion. Combine that with his weird, mediocre turn, and I don’t think the game is sharp enough to allow him to catch a second player in a row.
Top 5 in order: Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama
Surprise prediction: Jordan Spieth will miss the cup. It wouldn’t normally be a surprise prediction, but Spieth has finished in the top five in three of his last four events and is truly one of the best irons in the world right now. However, he doesn’t normally play TPC Sawgrass well – even when he was playing the best golf of his life – and has missed four of his last five player cups.
Lowest round: 64 (-8)
Winning score: 271 (-17)
Sunday winner’s score: 69 (-3)
Jacob Hallex, producer
Winner – Viktor Hovland (25-1): The winners of The Players tend to be random and do not fit a particular mold. It’s a tough tournament to predict, so let’s take some time with the picks to win. Why not Hovland? The Norwegian has finished in the top 5 on four of his last six starts on the PGA Tour. This includes a victory at the Mayakoba Classic just before the holidays. The blow against Hovland is his shock. Aside from the atrocious quad in the second round of WGC Workday, his game hasn’t been so bad. I’ll take the 23-year-old ball forward for his third PGA Tour win.
Sleeper – Cameron Smith (50-1): He has so far landed a top five trio for the season. Smith burst into my eyes with a T2 finish at the rescheduled Masters in November. He was in the WGC-Workday Championship contention last month before a disastrous 77 on Saturday killed any hope of winning. Prior to the collapse at Concession, he finished T4 at the Genesis Invitational earning 10 green tee shots for the week. Not too bad. If the young Australian avoids a lot, I think he will finish near the top of the standings.
Top 10 Lock – Tony Finau (25-1 to win): One of these days, Finau will take his second victory on the PGA Tour. It probably won’t be this week. But lately, if he brings him to heel, he’s likely to finish in the top 10, as he has in five of his last seven world starts. Let’s avoid any disappointment with another “close but no cigar” finish by collecting a top 10 ticket this week instead.
Star who sure won’t win – Rory McIlroy: It almost looks like cheating. Rory may have gotten lost in the woods helping to find Jordan Spieth. Something a lot of people missed over the past week was that McIlroy didn’t make the top 10 in the official world golf rankings for the first time since 2018. Rory is looking for a spark. He remarked after Sunday’s API tour: “I need something and I just don’t seem to have it.” He might be the defending champion, but I’m not buying any McIlroy stock this week.
Top 5 in order: Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau, Tyrrell Hatton, Dustin Johnson, Will Zalatoris
Surprise prediction – Jordan Spieth misses the cup: I bet Spieth will miss the cut last week, and I’ll be doing the same again this week. What is the definition of insanity? Jordan “is back” … but I’m still going to make him disappear on a course where he didn’t have a big story. A Q4 in 2014 is his only top 40 at this event. He didn’t perform well here during the peak years and he looked lost in the depths. Temper expectations and don’t be surprised if Spieth misses the cup for the fifth time in his career with The Players
Lowest round: 65 (-7)
Winning score: 273 (-15)
Sunday winner’s score: 69 (-3)
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Adam Silverstein, Associate Editor
Winner – Justin Thomas (20-1): Apart from a missed cut at the Genesis Invitational two weeks ago, Thomas has been on a roll since the start of the season in September. He hasn’t finished worse than 15th in any event he’s played with three top five. This is the time of year when Thomas teases you into believing that he is a good choice to win the Masters with a victory in an important upstream event. Looking for his 14th PGA Tour win and his first since last August, there’s good value here on JT
Sleeper – Billy Horschel (70-1): One of the toughest golfers on the PGA Tour, Horschel succeeds in lumps. And although he fell out of favor last week, missing the cup at Bay Hill after finishing T2 in the WGC-Workday Championship, Horschel has finished four top 10 since early December. He likes to be tested on difficult courses, and given that he lives about 15 minutes from TPC Sawgrass, he is quite familiar with this course. Great odds for a growing golfer with an advantage on the home course.
Top 10 lock – Tony Finau (25-1 to win): Look, we all know the deal with Finau at this point. He has five top-five classifications in his last seven events. He might win this stuff, but he probably won’t. But if I put lockdown status on a guy to finish in the top 10, there just isn’t a better choice right now.
Star Who Definitely Won’t Win- Rory McIlroy: I hate to make this category a sweep, but it’s the obvious choice given its declining play. McIlroy stating that he needs to find himself is a clear indication that something is wrong, either physically, mentally or both. Unlike my compatriots, here I give you a bonus if you are looking for a change of pace: Hideki Matsuyama.
Top 5 in order: Justin Thomas, Xander Sc Chaudele, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Billy Horschel
Surprise Prediction – Rickie Fowler Will Be In restraint: It might only be for a round or most of a day, but Fowler has taken so many body hits for his game lately, that I think he’s going to find a lot of external motivation to at least try. Once. these four towers. Fowler is 125-1 to win the players over, so don’t go give him anything, but it’s a course he’s familiar with. Just when you count Fowler, maybe he will surprise you a bit.
Lowest round: 64 (-8)
Winning score: 272 (-16)
Sunday winner’s score: 69 (-3)
Who will win the players’ championship and what long strokes will amaze the golf world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected standings and top bets, all from the model that nailed six golf majors and is up over $ 11,000 since the reboot to find out.
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