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Among the films leading the charge are “Da 5 Bloods”, “A Night in Miami”, “Minari” and “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”.
Forget about high level critic groups. They’re influential, but the Screen Actors Guild Awards are more a reflection of the direction Academy actors are taking. SAG and the Oscars don’t always line up, which is a matter of timing: Last-minute films often aren’t seen by enough members of the SAG Nominating Committee. SAG voters tend to be more ordinary and younger than the mainstream branch of the Academy, not to mention a greater number: each year the SAG selects a new nominating committee of 2,500 members, i.e. approximately double the voters of the Academy.
Last year, Best Picture nominees “The Irishman” and “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” won four nominations each, including Cast in a Motion Picture and Stunt Ensemble, while Greta Gerwig’s “Little Women” was excluded. Do you remember Bryan Cranston’s shock for “Trumbo”? This SAG candidate ended up with an Oscar nomination. SAG actors love Jay Roach; Last year, the #MeToo drama “Bombshell” had four nominations, including a coveted Cast slot set, which often portends a Best Picture nomination. That SAG love hasn’t transferred to the wider field of Academy voters: Charlize Theron and Margot Robbie landed nods at the Oscars, but Nicole Kidman didn’t.
But when Bong Joon Ho’s “Parasite” arrived at Ensemble, it was suddenly possible for Neon to get into an Oscar contender for Best Picture. It was a sign that the film was mainstream enough to go through with it.
Here are our intrepid predictions of SAG Awards nominations, ranked in order of likelihood of landing slots. Check back February 4 for my review of the finalists.
Movie Set
“The Chicago 7 Trial” (Paramount / Netflix)
“Ma Rainey’s Black Background” (Netflix)
“One night in Miami” (Amazon Studios)
“Minari” (A24)
“Da 5 Bloods” (Netflix)
Black Horse: “Mank” (Netflix)
In a perfect world: “Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros.)
Three popular films with sprawling castings (“Chicago 7”, “Ma Rainey” and “Miami”) are locks for this category. The question is which of the two Netflix films will occupy the remaining slots: David Fincher’s “Mank,” which has two powerful actors who should easily land nominations (Gary Oldman and Amanda Seyfried), or Spike Lee’s “Da 5 Bloods”. , which is suspended on fort despite its release earlier this year. He has a stunning ensemble, from the mighty conductor Delroy Lindo (nominated as part of “The Cider House Rules” two decades ago) to Clarke Peters (part of the nominated ensemble “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri ), The great late Chadwick Boseman (who is part of the ensemble named “Black Panther”), Jonathan Majors and Isiah Whitlock, Jr .. They can prove to be irresistible.
Don’t be surprised if SAG takes another look at diversity this year, including the heavy cast of Lee Isaac Chung’s American fable from the heart, “Minari,” directed by Steven Yeun. Shaka King’s “Judas and the Black Messiah” is coming in force with great reviews, but it may have been screened too late.
Where is alleged Oscar favorite “Nomadland?” Due to its innovative hybrid pro and non-pro cast, it probably won’t land on Ensemble.
“Ma Rainey’s black background”
Netflix
Movie actress
Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Background”)
Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”)
Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”)
Carey Mulligan (“Young Promising Woman”)
Zendaya (“Malcolm and Marie”)
Black Horse: Amy Adams (“Hillbilly Elegy”)
In a perfect world: Kate Winslet (“Ammonite”)
Oscar-winning Davis and McDormand lead the pack, young players nipping at their heels. Netflix has put on SAG screenings for Venice actress winner “Pieces of a Woman,” “Hillbilly Elegy” (which actors admire more than critics) and last-minute “Malcolm & Marie”. Burning “Euphoria” Emmy winner Zendaya needs the Oscar nomination to qualify, but Carey Mulligan has created momentum in “Promising Young Woman”.
Kate Winslet, with eight nods at the movies, two Ensemble Cast (“Titanic”, “Sense and Sensibility”) and two wins (“Sense and Sensibility” and “The Reader”) is an eternal SAG; Don’t underestimate the ability of the “Parasite” Neon Dispenser to get “Ammonite” across the finish line.
Actor
Chadwick Boseman (“My Rainey’s Black Background”)
Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”)
Delroy Lindo (“Da 5 Bloods”)
Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”)
Gary Oldman (“Mank”)
Black Horse: Steven Yeun (“Minari”)
In a perfect world: Mads Mikkelsen (“Another Round”)
There was a time during the fall film festivals where Sir Anthony led the pack for his father-daughter argument with Olivia Colman, but Boseman’s explosive performance as trumpeter Levee in August Wilson’s play is on. the point of achieving a well-deserved posthumous victory. . Boseman could also be included in Ensemble Cast and film supporting actor for “Da 5 Bloods”, and Lindo is expected to be recognized for the film in this category. Riz Ahmed will not be denied his place as a deaf drummer in “Sound of Metal”.
Oldman, who won the SAG Award for “Darkest Hour” on his way to the Oscars and is charming as alcoholic screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz in “Mank,” may be vulnerable if SAG actors want to make room for someone. ‘one again. The Danish Oscar submission “Another Round” is clearly a long-term plan, but both the film and the actor are loved.
Film supporting actress
Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”)
Olivia Colman (“The Father”)
Ellen Burstyn (“Pieces of a Woman”)
Maria Bakalova (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”)
Youn Yuh-Jung (“Minari”)
Black Horse: Glenn Close (“Hillbilly Elegy”)
In a perfect world: Helena Zengel (“News from the World”)
Seyfried delivers more than anyone expecting Marion Davies to do in “Mank,” which often leads to serious kudos. Veterans Colman (winner for “The Favorite”) and Burstyn (SAG nominated for “Requiem for a Dream”) are stable as they go, with Korean movie star Youn Yuh-Jung as the charming grandmother of “Minari”, and unlikely Bulgarian newcomer Maria Bakalova as Borat’s daughter in “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”. The actors love Close, who plays a chewy character role in “Hillbilly Elegy”; she is an eternal SAG and won for “The Wife”, beating eventual Oscar winner Olivia Colman (“The Favorite”).
Movie Support Actor
Leslie Odom, Jr. (“One Night in Miami”)
Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Chicago Trial 7”)
Chadwick Boseman (“Da 5 Bloods”)
Paul Raci (“Sound of Metal”)
Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)
Black Horse: Mark Rylance (“The Chicago Trial 7”)
In a perfect world: Clarke Peters (“Da 5 Bloods”)
This overcrowded category favors the actor who leaves the ensemble. In this case, with “Hamilton” behind him, Broadway star Odom, Jr. stars as pop star Sam Cooke in “One Night in Miami”. Likewise, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” star Baron Cohen gets extra points for his “Borat” sequel, which could bolster her credibility as Yippie Abbie Hoffman who, like the actor, is a happy joker with very serious goals. If Boseman lands a supporting actor spot, the rest of the superb throws from “Da 5 Bloods,” “Miami” and “Chicago” will likely turn around.
With veteran actor Raci’s role as a deaf advisor in “Sound of Metal” comes a compelling tale: Raised to sign by deaf parents, English was his second language. And assuming voters saw “Judas and the Black Messiah” in time, British actor Kaluuya impressively channels the young and powerful Chicago Black Panther, Fred Hampton, who was shrunk far too young by the FBI.
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