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by Brad Brevet
June 13, 2019
While the last two weeks have been marked by several new struggles and the weekend does not seem to be different, the summer season is up 12.6% over last year and currently ranks the second largest summer season of all time. June 12th. However, this is largely due to Disney and Marvel Avengers: End of the game and it looks like Disney and Pixar Toy Story 4 will have to serve as a film that modifies the current struggles that the new releases of the season undergo. Regarding the new versions of this weekend, neither Sony Men in black international neither WB Tree seek to provide big dollars and, depending on the circumstances, there might be a race to the 1st place of the weekend chart.
Things get interesting at the top of the box office like Universal and Illumination The secret life of pets 2 would like to return to first place despite a disappointing start to $ 46.6 million last weekend, but the Men in black international is an early favorite to take the place, even though it might be a debate.
Work for him, Men in black debuted in 4,224 places, more than 400 more than previously expected. The studio anticipates a start of about $ 30 million, which is not really aggressive or impressive given MIB 3 Opened with $ 54.5 million in May 2012. However, as we have shown in recent weeks, the market has been saturated with franchise movies recently and many have been performing poorly. Like last week's novelties, critics for Men in black are well below those of its predecessors – including poorly received countries Men in black ii – and a look at the IMDb page viewing data continues the trend with the film behind the disappointment of last weekend Dark Phoenix.
All in all, we find it hard to find much reason to expect an opening of more than $ 30 million apart from the fact that the film opens in more than 4,200 locations. For the moment, we are planning an opening around $ 28 millionwhich in itself seems high, because we would not be surprised to see it approaching 25 to 26 million dollars Sunday.
At the international level, it is there that it will have to hope that it works well, Men in black will debut on 92% of the international market, including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Spain, Russia, China, Japan, Korea, Australia, Brazil and Mexico. The main markets that do not open this weekend are the Middle East, Indonesia, Belgium, the Netherlands and Italy.
Seeking to thwart Men in blackThe offer for an opening # 1 is that of Universal and Illumination The secret life of animals 2, who had difficulties last weekend, opening with less than half of the $ 104 million debut of the original 2016, which dropped 51% on its second weekend. What he's doing Animals 2 can improve the fall of the original will decide if he can challenge MIB for this place n ° 1.
The question is what type of word of mouth does the film receive? He dominated the box office daily all week and received an "A-" CinemaScore from the audiences of the first day, the same as that of the first film. And while critics were down on the movie, the audience score for the sequel is 91% on RottenTomates, versus 62% for the original and the IMDb score of the sequel is just a fraction in below where the original was at the same point in the release cycle. Can the sequel then enhance the second weekend immersion of the original? We are currently expecting a -47% drop and a second weekend $ 25 million, but a drop closer to -40% would put the weekend performance around $ 28 million, which could be enough for a repeat in the first row while the film is close to $ 95 million in the domestic market.
Third, look for Disney Aladdin to continue his decent run as he recently passed MaleficentThe national race is expected to end around $ 262 million by the end of the weekend. We are currently forecasting a drop of -37% as the film begins its fourth weekend of release and a performance of about three days $ 15-16 million.
The publication by the World Bank of Tree hopes to have a fourth place in his debut and his critics are not very worthy of interest. The film will debut at nearly 3,000 theaters and the studio plans an opening of about $ 15 million. The review of IMDb page visualization data is however not at all promising. The film is moving well behind the star Samuel L. JacksonThe hit of 2017 The bodyguard of Hitman ($ 21.3 million opening) and is even far behind the likes of The nice guys ($ 11.2 million opening) and even Keanu (Opening $ 9.4 million). That said, we expect the brand's notoriety to carry the film to some extent, pushing it somewhere $ 14 million for the weekend, but going higher is a difficult task.
Search Fox Dark Phoenix to complete the top five after a disappointing start last weekend. As a basis of comparison, X-Men: Apocalypse crater of over 65% during its second weekend in 2016. Of course, apocalypse made its debut over a long holiday weekend, which has pushed its opening higher and therefore justifies a larger decline. As for Dark PhoenixAlthough she did not open during a holiday weekend, she suffered not only the worst criticism of the franchise, but also the worst opening of more than 20 million dollars. So, waiting for a big fall would hardly be revolutionary. At the present time, we expect a drop of -60% and a three-day performance around $ 13 million, which would put the gross national film right around $ 58 million by the end of the weekend.
Outside the top five, we find the release of Amazon Studios by Late at night. The movie with Emma Thompson and Mindy Kaling was bought by Amazon at Sundance for a record $ 13 million and debuted in four locations last weekend with a solid average of $ 61,576 per theater. This weekend, it expands to over 1,500 sites and industry expectations range from $ 5 million to $ 9 million. The low end of this range seems a reasonable expectation for this film, which has received much criticism from critics and which should, at the very least, allow for national expansion. $ 5-6 million with the expectations of the basement closer to 3-4 million dollars.
In a limited version, Focus will publish Jim Jarmuschthe starry zombie comedy The dead do not die in 613 locations. If the film was outperforming, it could possibly be in the top 10, but for now, we expect a start. $ 2 million or so, ending up outside looking in.
Finally, Roadside will publish American woman starring Sienna Miller, Christina Hendricks and Aaron Paul in 117 different locations.
The forecast for this weekend is directly below. This article will be updated on Friday morning with the results of Thursday night's preview followed by Friday's estimates on Saturday morning and a full weekend's recap on Sunday morning.
- Men in black international (4,224 theaters) – $ 28.0 million
- The secret life of pets 2 (4,564 theaters) – $ 25.0 million
- Aladdin (3,556 theaters) – $ 15.6 million
- Tree (2,952 screens) – $ 14.0 million
- Dark Phoenix (3,721 rooms) – $ 13.1 million
- Godzilla: the king of monsters (3,207 theaters) – $ 7.4 million
- Rocketman (3,052 rooms) – $ 7.3 million
- Late at night (1,500 theaters) – $ 5.5 million
- John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum (2,033 screens) – $ 4.5 million
- My (1,782 screens) – $ 3.2 million
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