the Final Final 2019 is near. Virginia, Auburn, Michigan State and Texas Tech went down to Minneapolis. Waiting for March madnessThe year-end is almost over.
With Saturday games – No. 1 Virginia vs. No. 5 Auburn (6:09 ET, CBS), State of Michigan No. 2 vs. Texas Tech No. 3 (8:49 am ET, CBS) – As we approach, Yahoo Sports' academic basketball writers have come together to answer the four most intriguing questions that will be asked this weekend – two per game.
1. Can Auburn speed up Virginia? (Or will he even try?)
Saturday's first match is a stylistic clash. Virginia is the slowest team in college basketball. His games have an average of 60.6 possessions per team. His standard offensive run lasts almost 21 seconds. These marks are respectively 353rd and 352nd out of 353 Division I teams. Auburn, meanwhile, scored his biggest surprise of the tournament with 97 points out of 75 possessions against North Carolina. His typical offensive run is only 16.5 seconds. He only played part of the season at a lower than average Cavs pace.
So, in theory, a tempo contest would suit Auburn. Attack Virginia's stifling defense before she's ready, they think. Accelerate the methodical and precise offensive of the seed of the head. Push Virginia out of her comfort zone, in a track competition, where Jared Harper and Bryce Brown will prosper.
However … there are equally compelling reasons why Auburn could be perfectly happy with a grind. First, the macro view: it is an outsider of 5.5 points. It's the lower team. The easier it is for a superior enemy to exercise this superiority, the better.
This is especially true without Chuma Okeke, injured. Tigers are outnumbered. Harper and Brown may need 40 minutes each, which will lead to an Elite Eight win over Kentucky. Head coach Bruce Pearl even admitted that his strategy in the second half was to "spread the ball, pass the ball to Jared or Bryce." It's probably his best bet again – if Harper and Brown have legs. They scored 35 of 47 points scored by Auburn on 47 seconds and overtime on the last lap in a game played at a 62-point possession rate. They also need six minutes of rest each. Could they be as prolific without breath, and / or at a faster pace?
Related: Auburn removes the # 1 UNC:
11PICTURES
The # 5 Auburn upset the # 1 UNC in Sweet 16
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KANSAS CITY, MONTHS – MARCH 29: Coby White, No. 2 in the North Carolina Tar Heels, defends against the Auburn Tigers in the third round of the 2017 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, held at the Sprint Center on March 29, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo of Ben Solomon / NCAA Photos via Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – MARCH 29: Luke Maye # 32 of the North Carolina Tar Heels manages the ball against the Auburn Tigers during the NCAA 2019 Basketball Tournament at the Midwest Regional held at Sprint Center on March 29, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo of Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MO – MARCH 29: Garrison Brooks, No. 15 in the North Carolina Tar Heels, battles Anfernee McLemore, No. 24 Auburn Tigers in the third round of the 2017 Men's Basketball Tournament. the NCAA, held at the Sprint Center on March 29, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo of Ben Solomon / NCAA Photos via Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – MARCH 29: JV Von McCormick, No. 12 of the Aubig Tigers, leads to the basket against the North Carolina Tar Heels at the NCAA Basketball Tournament in the Midwest Regional 2019 at Sprint Center, March 29, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – MARCH 29: Seventh Woods No. 0 North Carolina Tar Heels fights for a lost ball with Bryce Brown No. 2 Auburn Tigers at the NCAA Basketball Tournament in the Midwest Regional 2019 at Sprint Center on March 29, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – MARCH 29: Cameron Johnson # 13 of the North Carolina Tar Heels fights for the ball against the Auburn Tigers at the Midwest Regional NCAA 2019 basketball tournament held at Sprint Center on March 29, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
Auburn's Chuma Okeke screams in pain after being injured during the second half of a college basketball semi-final match organized by the NCAA against North Carolina vs. North Carolina, Friday, March 29, 2019 in Kansas City (Photo AP / Charlie Riedel)
In North Carolina, Coby White (2) faces Horace Spencer (0) from Auburn (0) in the semifinal of an NCAA men's tournament in the Midwest Regional semifinal on Friday. , March 29, 2019, in Kansas City (Photo / Charlie Riedel))
Samir Doughty of Auburn celebrates in the second half of a Midwest Regional semifinal match against North Carolina, as part of an NCAA tournament, against Carolina's North, Friday, March 29, 2019, in Kansas City, Missouri (AP Photo / Orlin Wagner)
North Carolina head coach Roy Williams screams from the touchline in the Midwest Regional semifinal against Auburn on Friday, March 29, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (AP Photo / Charlie Riedel)
Bryce Brown of Auburn applauds in the second half of a Midwest Regional semifinal match against North Carolina held in the NCAA against North Carolina, Friday, March 29, 2019, in Kansas City, Missouri (AP Photo / Charlie Riedel)
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So, the question of rhythm turns into: Can Auburn make the best of both worlds? Can he use the tempo to occasionally create space for Harper and Brown, but do it selectively to keep it cool? Can he disrupt Virginia's offensive but not be carried away by the feeling that he must destabilize the game to win?
The answer will come from a showdown between the best defense of the nation and one of its safest offenses. The selective increase in Auburn's tempo depends on its forced rotation rate. The Tigers overthrow their opponents with 24.9% of their belongings. The Cavs only managed 14.7% of theirs. This differential will be the widest of all the D-I games of the season. Something must give. It does not matter which team will play again on Monday night. – Henry Bushnell
2. Will Virginia match Auburn's strength or attack her weakness?
In the aftermath of the Auburn Round of 16 triumph, Okeke's sideline presence was celebrated as an emotional catalyst. If Kentucky had won, however, his absence on the court would have been history. P.J. Washington and Reid Travis combined for 37 points in 23 field goal attempts (and seven missed free throws).
Without Okeke, Auburn is under-treated at the front. And although Virginia's frontline has no scorer with a weak spot with Washington's talent, he has the size to defeat the Tigers. The question is whether Tony Bennett will allow it.
Bennett's rotation fluctuated depending on the situation. His core of three players (Ty Jerome, Kyle Guy, De'Andre Hunter) will rarely be seated. For the rest, there is little certainty. Here are their minutes against Gardner-Webb, Oklahoma, Oregon and Purdue (OT *), respectively:
Mamadi Diakite (6 feet 9 feet): 27, 28, 35, 42 *
Kihei Clark (5 feet-9 G): 36, 33, 37, 24 *
Jack Salt (6 feet 10 C): 5, 2, 3, 34 *
Braxton Key (6 feet 8 feet): 11, 21, 7, 2 *
Jay Huff (7 feet-1 C): 5, 9, 1, 0 *
Bennett can play a not really true alignment that goes 5-9, 6-2, 6-5, 6-7, 6-8. He can also deploy a range of two players that go 6-2, 6-5, 6-7, 6-9, 6-10.
Diakite has been imposed in a territory of almost 40 minutes in the last two weeks. But Salt, a senior with brute force, is a telling example. He barely saw the ground through three rounds, then was excellent in his supporting role against Purdue.
If Bennett returns in the Hunter-Diakite-Salt training against Auburn, the Tigers do not really have a marker. They are already a bad rebound team on the defensive. As long as Virginia can take her first steps, the underdogs will be in trouble.
See the chances of each remaining team to win everything:
4PICTURES
Championship Odds for Final Four March Madness Teams
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No. 5 Auburn: 7/1 rating
Via Vegas Insider
(AP Photo / Charlie Riedel)
# 3 Texas Tech: 4/1 rating
Via Vegas Insider
(AP Photo / Marcio Jose Sanchez)
State of Michigan # 2: 7/4 odds
Via Vegas Insider
(AP Photo / Patrick Semansky)
Virginia n ° 1: 8/5 chances
Via Vegas Insider
(AP Photo / Michael Conroy)
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But does Bennett have confidence in this wide range to hold Harper and Brown? Clark is probably the most appropriate partner for Harper. And the Purdue game was an anomaly related to Carsen Edwards. Recently, only opponents with big guards drove Clark to the bench. He should fit in perfectly with Saturday's match.
If Clark is on the field, Salt probably will not be.
Auburn's best hope is a new Brown-Harper explosion. Bennett will probably mix and match the queues primarily to prevent this explosion. Which could mean that Virginia can not take full advantage of Auburn's weakened front line. It will be Bennett's turn to manage the mutual concessions. – Henry Bushnell
3. Will Michigan State be able to handle the ball against Texas Tech?
A problem has emerged in many of the losses suffered by the state of Michigan in recent years. Too often, Spartans have trouble dealing with basketball.
Michigan State overturns the ball on 18.5% of its possessions this year, an improvement over the last two seasons but still below the national average. In the six defeats of the Spartans this season, they committed 15.8 turnovers per game, against 10.4 per game in 32 wins.
Taking care of the ball should be especially important against an aggressive Texas Tech defense that produces takeaway. The Red Raiders require turnovers thanks to the fast hands of balloon keeper Matt Mooney, the long arms of the Jarrett Culver, and the instinct and timing of the Tariq Owens and Norense Odiase blockers.
Three keys for any Texas Tech opponent are to limit turnovers, score points in transition before the Red Raiders' vaunted defense, and generate additional possessions via offensive shots when defenders help get out of their position rebound. The state of Michigan State track is solid in these last two areas, but the way the Spartans adapt to the hands of Texas Tech will always be essential. – Jeff Eisenberg
36PICTURES
The best photos and moments of March Madness 2019
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Buffalo's Jeremy Harris pursues after a loose ball during the second half of a men's basketball game in the first round against Arizona State at the NCAA Tournament, on Friday, March 22, 2019, in Tulsa, USA. # 39; Oklahoma. (AP Photo / Charlie Riedel)
Wisconsin goaltender D & # 039; Mitrik Trice holds the ball under Oregon goalkeeper Ehab Amin in the first half of a first round match of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament , Friday, March 22, 2019, in San Jose, California (AP Photo / Chris Carlson)
Dontay Caruthers, of Buffalo, celebrates the basket of his teammates during the first half of a men's basketball game of the first round against Arizona State at the NCAA Tournament on Friday, March 22, 2019, in Tulsa, in the United States. # 39; Oklin. (AP Photo / Charlie Riedel)
MOONS, IOWA – MARCH 21: Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo glares at Aaron Henry, # 11, after a play played in the first round of the NCAA basketball tournament against the Bradley Braves at the Wells Fargo Arena on March 21, 2019 in Des Moines, Iowa. (Photo of Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH – MARCH 21: Jared Harper, the No. 1 Aubig Tigers, drops after bringing his basket to the first half against New Mexico State Aggies in the first round of the 2017 Men's Basketball Tournament. NCAA at Vivint Smart Home Arena March 21, 2019 in Salt Lake City, Utah. (Photo by Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
Kansas State Guard, Shaun Neal-Williams (1), loses the ball between UC Irvine goaltender, Spencer Rivers, left, and guard Evan Leonard in the first half of a match men's basketball tournament in the first round of the NCAA tournament, Friday, March 22, 2019, in San Jose, California. (AP Photo / Chris Carlson)
Striker Xavier Tillman (23) of Michigan State wins rebound against Ja? Shon Henry (22), Bradley goalkeeper, in a men's basketball first round match of the NCAA Tournament, Thursday, March 21, 2019, in Des Moines, Iowa. (AP Photo / Charlie Neibergall)
In the center, Belmont's Dylan Windler goes to the trash between Bruno Fernando of Maryland, left, and Darryl Morsell, 11, of the second half of the NCAA tournament's first round of the NCAA tournament in Jacksonville. Florida, Thursday, March 21, 2019. (AP Photo / Stephen B. Morton)
Wisconsin goaltender Khalil Iverson, left, faces Oregon striker Paul White in the first half of a men's basketball game in the first round of the NCAA tournament on Friday. March 22, 2019, San Jose, California. (AP Photo / Ben Margot)
DeJon Jarreau of Houston hits the ball during the first half of a men's basketball game in the first round against Georgia State at the NCAA Tournament on Friday, March 22, 2019, in Tulsa, Oklahoma . (AP Photo / Jeff Roberson)
Mississippi State Guard, Lamar Peters, is watching the second half of the game against Liberty in the first round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament on Friday, March 22, 2019, in San Jose, California. (AP Photo / Jeff Chiu)
LSU players celebrate their victory after defeating Maryland 69-67 in a second-round match of the NCAA men's basketball tournament in Jacksonville, Florida, on Saturday, March 23, 2019. (AP Photo / John Raoux)
Gonzaga's Josh Perkins (13) targets Corey Kispert (24) after Kispert's score against Baylor in the second half of a second-round match of the NCAA men's men's basketball tournament on Saturday, March 23, 2019, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo / Rick Bowmer)
Striker Gonzaga Corey Kispert, left, seems to pass for goaltender Mario Kegler during the second half of a second-round match of the NCAA men's basketball tournament on Saturday, March 23, 2019, in Salt. Lake City. (AP Photo / Jeff Swinger)
Texas Tech's Jarrett Culver (23) defeated Nick Perkins (33) of Buffalo in the second half of a men's basketball game in the second round of the NCAA University Tournament on Sunday, March 24, 2019, in Tulsa , Ok so. (AP Photo / Charlie Riedel)
Oregon striker Louis King celebrates after scoring against UC Irvine during the second half of a second-round match of the NCAA men's basketball tournament on Sunday 24th. March 2019, San Jose, California (Photo AP / Jeff Chiu)
Florida State Guard, Trent Forrest, left, blocks a shot from Gonzaga goalkeeper Zach Norvell Jr. during the second half of a semifinal of the NCAA West Men's Basketball Tournament Region, on Thursday, March 28, 2019, in Anaheim, California (AP Photo / Jae C.). Hong)
LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY – MARCH 28: Matt Haarms, # 32 of the Purdue Boilermakers, reacts against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half of the 2019 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament hosted by South Regional at KFC YUM ! Center on March 28, 2019 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
Texas guard Matt Coleman III (2) screams after being picked up by a Colorado player at an NCAA college basketball game in the NIT quarter-final on Wednesday, March 27, 2019 in Austin, Texas . (Nick Wagner / Austin American-American via AP)
Michigan guard Charles Matthews, left, and guard Jordan Poole leave the field after the team's loss to Texas Tech in a Western Region semi-final of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament on Thursday, March 28, 2019, in Anaheim, California. (AP Photo / Jae C. Hong)
Anahim, Calif. – March 30: Brandon Clarke # 15 and Rui Hachimura # 21 Bulldogs Gonzaga vying for the ball against Norense Odiase # 32 Texas Tech Red Raiders in the first half of the 2017 Men's Basketball Tournament of the NCAA, West Regional at Honda Center on March 30, 2019 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)
Texas Tech striker, Tariq Owens, celebrates after scoring against Michigan in the semifinal of a men's basketball tournament in the NCAA, in the Western Region on Thursday, March 28, 2019, at Anaheim, California. (AP Photo / Marcio Jose Sanchez)
Auburn's Chuma Okeke (5) grabbed his leg while he lost control of the ball while he was heading towards the basket, while Cameron Johnson (13) and North Carolina (Brandon Robinson), left, defend during the second half of a men's basketball game at the Midwest Regional Midwest NCAA Friday, March 29, 2019 in Kansas City, Mo. Okeke s 39 is injured in the game. (AP Photo / Charlie Riedel)
Striker Xavier Tillman (23) of Michigan State beats LSU forward Darius Days (22) for the lost ball in the first half of a semifinal of the East Region of the tournament NCAA men's basketball tournament, Friday, March 29, 2019 in Washington. (AP Photo / Alex Brandon)
North Carolina's Seventh Woods, left, and Kenny Williams mark a break towards the end of an NCAA basketball semifinal against Auburn on Friday, March 29, 2019, in Kansas City, in Missouri (AP Photo / Charlie Riedel)
WASHINGTON, DC – MARCH 29: Virginia Tech Hokies # 13 Ahmed Hill reacts after missing a layup against the Duke Blue Devils at the end of the second half of the East Region Basketball Tournament match 2017 Men's NCAA at Capital One Arena on March 29, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr / Getty Images)
The duke's guard, Tre Jones (3), reacts after scoring against Virginia Tech in the second half of a semifinal of the NCAA East Region men's basketball tournament in Washington, DC, Friday, March 29, 2019 (AP Photo / Patrick Semansky)
Striker Gonzaga Rui Hachimura scores against Texas Tech in the first half of a university basketball final match in the NCAA West region on Saturday, March 30, 2019, in Anaheim, California. (AP Photo / Marcio Jose Sanchez)
From & # 039; Andre Hunter, of Virginia, dribbles Grady Eifert (24) from Purdue during the first half of the final match of the NCAA Southern College Basketball on Saturday, March 30, 2019, at Louisville, Kentucky (Photo AP / Michael Conroy)
Trevion Williams (50) of Purdue scores against Virginia's Jack Salt (33) in the second half of the NCAA University Tournament South-North Final on Saturday, March 30, 2019 in Louisville. in Kentucky. (AP Photo / Michael Conroy)
Mamadi Diakite of Virginia, center, reacts with teammates Kyle Guy and 33-year-old Jack Salt after firing a shot at overtime in the South Regional final of the NCAA tournament against Purdue, Saturday, March 30, 2019, in Louisville. , Ky. (AP Photo / Michael Conroy)
Anfernee McLemore (24) of Auburn and Reid Travis (22) from Kentucky attempt to bounce back in the first half of the Midwest Regional final in the NCAA men's basketball tournament on Sunday, March 31, 2019, in Kansas City (Photo: AP Photo / Charlie Riedel)
Jared Harper, of Auburn, left, takes it ahead of Reid Travis of Kentucky in the first half of the Midwest Regional final in the NCAA men's basketball tournament on Sunday, March 31, 2019, at Kansas City, Missouri (AP Photo / Charlie Riedel)
WASHINGTON, DC – MARCH 31: Tre Jones, # 3 in the Duke Blue Devils, reacts after his team's 68-67 loss to the Michigan State Spartans at the East Regional 2017 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Capital One Arena on March 31, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
Cassius Winston, Michigan State Guard, right, celebrates with teammates Matt McQuaid (20), Nick Ward (44) and Gabe Brown (13) after defeating Duke at a basketball game NCAA East Regional Men's Final Ball in Washington, DC, March 31, 2019 (Photo AP / Patrick Semansky)
WASHINGTON, DC – MARCH 31: Zion Williamson, No. 1 Duke Blue Devils, reacts in the locker room after his team's 68-67 loss to the Michigan State Spartans at the East Regional 2017 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Capital One Arena March 31, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
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4. Can Texas Tech get enough score to keep the state of Michigan in transition?
The airtight defense has been Texas Tech's hallmark this season, but the Red Raiders' late-season jump, from very good to elite, coincided with the improvement in their attack. They went from outside the top 100 in adjusted offensive efficiency at the beginning of February to take off from the top 30 two months later.
Although Culver went from being a role player to All-American because of his ability to generate his own dribbling shot, the Texas Tech offense only became explosive when his secondary cast started to relieve him. Mooney creates scoring opportunities for him and his teammates, Davide Moretti is an elite shooter and Brandone Francis, Deshawn Corprew and Kyler Edwards can also shoot shots.
The Michigan State top 10 defense will be one of the best Texas Tech has ever faced, although the Spartans are not aggressive enough to take advantage of the Red Raiders' lack of a true playmaker. Texas Tech has scored at least 1 point per possession in each of its last 14 games, but Michigan State will play a solid defense, will rise by force, and will offer little chance of second chance.
For Texas Tech, making baskets will be essential for more than just obvious reasons. The Red Raiders need to score points to keep Michigan out of the transition and force the Spartans to attack a defense. – Jeff Eisenberg
