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I want to see why the 49ers gave up three first-round picks for Trey Lance as much as the next person. There wasn’t a single person who watched the first quarter of Sunday’s game and said something like, “Lance can’t do it. this? “
It’s the emotional part of watching football. This is normal, and I would go so far as to say that it is necessary. This may be true while also understanding why Lance played four snaps in two games, all coming against the Lions.
First of all, you have to put yourself in Kyle Shanahan’s shoes.
Shanahan has made it clear that Jimmy Garoppolo is the starter. However, on a conference call Monday, Shanahan was asked if he gets on when people suggest taking Lance out into the field for development reasons down the line. Here is what he said:
“Yeah, I understand all the angles people want to take with that. But I also understand that we’re an NFL team and we try to win every game and we have a starting quarterback, which usually makes it pretty simple things.
But when your backup quarterback has a skill set that can bring different things to the game, that’s what gives him an option for us to do that. He has something that someone has to cook week after week. And I think it’s a great club that we have in our bag that we can use anytime. “
What’s interesting here is that Shanahan recognizes that teams need to be prepared for Lance at all times. However, it doesn’t look like we’ll see an increase in Lance usage based on what Shanahan had to say next:
“But you don’t really make decisions based on your team to just put a guy totally fair for what he is in the future. I think that would be irresponsible to everyone in the room.
You do this if you think it gives you a chance based on what’s going on in this game, this game only. In the meantime, yes, it’s good for a guy to go out. But if it wasn’t because he brought in a different element that we thought might help us with something we’re going against, there’s no other reason we would.
Against Detroit, Shanahan felt the best time to use Lance was in the red zone. We haven’t seen the rookie quarterback against Philadelphia for several reasons.
Why not Lance?
The Eagles have one of the best and deepest defensive lines in the league. On first possession, their defensive tackle jumped the snap, and it was a three-yard loss before Alex Mack or Daniel Brunskill could break out of their positions.
The Eagles punched Garoppolo on his first two setbacks, which sent the throws sailing. Jimmy G’s pitching time was 2.44 seconds, according to NextGenStats, which was the fourth-lowest in the league.
By design, the 49ers’ offense was to get the ball out of Garoppolo’s hands faster. Lance’s first exposure doesn’t need to come up against a defensive line consisting of Josh Sweat, Derek Barnett, Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham on the pitch at the same time on the road when you’re down.
Shanahan relied on the “quick play” passing attack after three three-and-outs to start the game. But, if you remember, going back to the preseason there were times when Lance wouldn’t pitch to an open catcher in quick play, whether during practice or in games.
Also, I would be surprised if Lance gets a max of 15% reps during training. He is not the starter. Why would he do it?
Shanahan had to adjust his game strategy and game plan. That’s what good coaches do. Shanahan is hoping Garoppolo knows where to go with the ball in the quick play. This season, Garoppoolo added the advantage of avoiding sacks and running out of pressure, which led to some positive results. The decision making is there. Shanahan builds on this as opposed to the alternate outcome.
Look around the NFL. Have you noticed a trend among rookie quarterbacks? Many turnovers, uncertain under pressure, with scattered games. That’s what you get with rookie quarterbacks: growing pains.
The last thing Shanahan wants to do when he’s forced to throw his game plan out the window after three trips in the car is live with growing pains. The 49ers know what they have with Garoppolo, for better or for worse.
Shanahan insisted that his main goal is to win and that Jimmy is giving the 49ers the best chance of winning. Think about what happens when Garoppolo is playing. The team wins.
There are times when the team wears Jimmy G (through 1.5 quarterback on Sunday), and there are times when you just need to thread the needle on a pass before half time is up to give trust the team and remind everyone, “oh yeah, we’re pretty good at it.
After that shot and the pre-half touchdown, the 49ers defense forced the Eagles to kick on their next three shots while the offense scored on two of their next three shots. This Garoppolo throw was the turning point of the game.
The enigma at QB
The 49ers have a conundrum at quarterback. Garoppolo is incredibly inconsistent. There was a two-game streak on Sunday which is a prime example. Garoppolo misses Trent Sherfield on a concept of “sailing” in the first game – he was taking a corner path to the sideline – which should be a layup pitch for any NFL quarterback. Instead, it was a glaring lack.
In the next game, Garoppolo manipulates the linebacker below while looking to the right side. Then, once he’s reached the top of his fall, Jimmy pulls to the left with great impatience for an intermediate completion. He even let the control lane that was open in front of him pass.
For now, it looks like Shanahan is leaving with the inconsistent veteran he knows he can win with, as opposed to the wild card rookie whose cap rivals any rookie coming out of the draft over the past two seasons.
When you haven’t played for two years, mistakes are inevitable. Trevor Lawrence started the four years in a powerhouse and faced some of the best defenses in the country. He faded into the red zone on Sunday.
At one point, Jets quarterback Zach Wilson provided five assists to his team and four assists to the Patriots. From 1950 to 2016, the team that wins the NFL turnover battle wins the game.
I’m not saying Lance will come out of the gate and be a turnover machine, nor am I inferring that Garoppolo isn’t doing his fair share of turnover-worthy throws. But, in a profitable business, Shanahan, for now, prefers the veteran.
Here’s why San Francisco is in a puzzle. In two games, Garoppoloo attempted two passes over 20 yards. One of them was Deebo Samuel’s touchdown. Here is what his passage table looks like:
When it’s not 2nd and 20th, the defenses shrink the pitch. They want to Jimmy to throw the ball deep.
When the ball hits, one of the Eagles’ safeties flies off and creates a loaded box. This means that the running and throwing lanes are smaller and the windows close faster.
That’s why the 12-play, 97-yard touchdown to end the halftime was impressive. On the first two games, the 49ers came up against a box of nine and eight men. Garoppolo found Deebo on a contested course below to convert a 3rd and a 3.
The next first down was a run with a screen pass to George Kittle after – who broke a tackle to pick up another first. The next four games were throws to JaMycal Hasty and a scrum from Garoppolo before he landed a first try on a stealth quarterback in 3rd and 1. The offense had to fight tooth and nail to get 40 yards. before Samuel’s explosive play.
To give you an idea of how teams are shrinking the pitch, 36% of Elijah Mitchell’s races have run into an eight-man box. It is fourth in the NFL among backstrokes with at least 30 runs. It’s hard to be successful on the pitch when there’s an extra defender to consider.
Even when it’s 8v8, you eliminate all double teams in your zone running game, and now everyone is going 1v1. As a defense, after a free runner, a 1v1 is best. thing for you to do.
Lance’s hour will come soon enough
Trey Lance is not Lamar Jackson. I want this to be clear. Jackson makes professional athletes look like cartoon characters as they move.
However, Baltimore is in a similar predicament as the 49ers. The majority of their running backs are injured and the teams charge the box to stop the race. An easy way to counter this is to rely on the quarterback’s run.
Now you have an extra player to account for the added defender in the box. Lance was not successful on quarterback runs designed on a small, limited sample. You can attribute this to the time it takes for games to develop, and everyone in the stadium knows they’re leading the ball.
With Lance under the center, the defenses must respect the shooting game on the field as well as his legs. This means that on the third tries you will not get the same types of pressure as with Garoppolo. But, equally important, you would see more area coverage for fear of Lance’s jamming.
Before he can get there, Lance must prove he can perform in the fast paced game, learn the playbook, and handle the pressure. The latter will be difficult to understand in practice. The timing of developing Lance and letting him play won’t be any easier, especially if the 49ers continue to win.
In a business where end results trump everything, it’s obvious we haven’t seen Lance yet. If Garoppolo remains inconsistent as the racing game struggles, Lance could respond to any potential future wrestling on offense.
A quarterback transition isn’t something that happens overnight, which is why the 49ers quarterback conundrum isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
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