5 deliveries of the trend of contract extension

As we saw daily in the spring, the 2019-2020 free agent category is becoming an endangered species. Chris Sale joined the fight on Friday, while the star player seven times was coming closer to an extra time to stay with the Red Sox until 2024.

The craze for extension has already had an impact on the free agent market next year in a number of areas, since Sale joins Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Aaron Hicks, Miles Mikolas and Ryan Pressly as imminent free agents to withdraw from this list.

How else could the extension of Sale change things around the Majors? Here are five excerpts from the latest mega-extension of the majors:

The extensions become the new free agency
Since the end of the World Series, clubs have awarded contract extensions totaling $ 1,337,875,000 to 19 players, including 16 since the start of spring training. These extensions range from the smallest ($ 3.25 million for Jose Martinez) to the impressive ($ 68 million for Mikolas and $ 70 million for Hicks) to the gigantic ($ 234 million for Arenado and $ 360 million for Mike Trout).

The Sale transaction, which is expected to last five years to nearly $ 150 million, would bring this amount to nearly $ 1.5 billion, representing 96 years of contract for 20 players. For those who score at home, this averages about $ 15.5 million a year.

Some extensions have been granted to players who are still independent of player substitution, replacing years of wage arbitration and, in some cases, a year or more of the player's potential to become a free player. For young stars such as Alex Bregman, Luis Severino, Aaron Nola and Blake Snell, these agreements have brought them (as well as their teams) a certainty for the next few years, thus removing any risk of arbitration.

For players who were heading to free agency next winter, the impetus to sign an extension is totally different. Given the deliberate pace of the last two free agent markets, many actors opted for the extension method by sparing them the process of the free agents process while guaranteeing them financial security for life.

Of course, you have to be two to dance one of these extensions, so the club must be willing to give one just as the player must have the desire to stay with the team. This will not be the case for all imminent free agents, so some players will naturally continue to enter the free market.

The high-end launchers are still paid
Despite all that has been said in a declining market, this has certainly not been the case for front-line beginners. After Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, the three biggest contracts this season have been won by novice pitchers: Patrick Corbin ($ 140 million over six years), Nathan Eovaldi ($ 68 million) and Yusei Kikuchi ($ 56 million). dollars).

Of the 13 players who earned at least $ 30 million in guaranteed money this season, six were starting pitchers. Corbin, Eovaldi and Kikuchi are still in their twenties, although even J.A., 36 years old. Happ (two years, $ 34 million), Lance Lynn, age 31 (three years, $ 30 million), and Charlie Morton, age 35 (age 30, $ 30 million), cashed their winnings at during the off season.

Dallas Keuchel seems to be the last in this field, but for 2019-2020 free agents – including Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Justin Verlander and Zack Wheeler – the prospect of embarking on the free market should be less scary than it could be be the case for player position.

Could Wheeler be Eovaldi or Corbin next season?
Prior to 2018, Eovaldi had on his resume a 38-46 record with a 4.21 MMP – and two Tommy John surgeries. Corbin was 45-47 with an average of 4.12 test points and a Tommy John procedure until 2017, scoring 139 career games (121 starts) compared to 134 in 127/127 starts for Eovaldi.

Corbin produced a better 2018 season, averaging 3.15 in ERA over 200 innings, which is good for a fifth place in the Cy Young National League votes. For his efforts, he received $ 140 million from the Nationals, while Eovaldi – who scored an average of points against 3.81 in just 111 innings of the regular season for the Rays and Red Sox – has transformed the month of October in a contract of $ 68 million. come before last season.

Wheeler (who also underwent surgery at Tommy John's) begins his year of walking with a record of 33-30 in 95 career starts, having missed two full seasons after his surgery. But the 28-year-old right-hander had a huge second half of the season last season (9-1, 1.68 ERA in 11 starts after the All-Star break), giving him plenty of momentum for 2019.

With Sale on the market, Cole is widely seen as the best starter available next winter, followed by Bumgarner and Verlander, although the sector is seriously convinced that he could sign an extension of his contract to stay in Houston.

Two years ago, it was absurd to think that Corbin would receive more money than Keuchel or that Eovaldi would win the second-biggest pitcher's contract of the dead season, but both took place. A great season of Wheeler could push him into these conversations next winter.

Betts and Bogaerts seem to be free will
Boston's decision to lock Sale was not a surprise, especially as other members of the class of 19/20 free agents began creating their own extensions. Does their willingness to extend Dirty is the sign that Mookie Betts and / or Xander Bogaerts could be next? Do not count on it.

Betts seems destined to test the free agent market, especially now that Trout has broken the salary cap with its $ 360 million extension over 10 years. For the Red Sox to sign, the club would probably need to spend more than the $ 330 million Phillies awarded to Bryce Harper – and for under 13 years.

Bogaerts is represented by Scott Boras, who usually likes to bring his clients into an independent agency, especially at a season of the year. Despite the proliferation of extensions in recent weeks, it would be somewhat surprising that Bogaerts join the party.

An interesting note: the deal with Sale will include deferred funds that could help the Red Sox retain their luxury tax number in the coming years, giving them more flexibility to keep their stars.

2019 could be a great season for middle-level starters as free agents
There is no doubt that Cole, Bumgarner and Verlander will earn a lot of money when they reach free will, but as we have seen with beginners such as Wade Miley, Clay Buchholz, Gio Gonzalez , Drew Pomeranz and Jeremy Hellickson, all do not start. eight-digit offers.

That said, with off-market sales, the high end of the pitching market is fading away. While Eovaldi was dramatically increasing his value with a huge October month, players like Matt Harvey, Michael Pineda, Jake Odorizzi and Alex Wood could see their value skyrocket if they were able to achieve strong seasons.