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WASHINGTON (AP) – Arguments begin Tuesday in impeachment trial by Donald Trump on claims he incited the violent mob that stormed the U.S. Capitol on January 6.
A look at five key questions about what to expect when senators hear the case against the former president in the very chamber besieged by insurgents:
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WILL TRUMP BE CONVIDED?
It’s unlikely. While many Republicans harshly criticized Trump for telling his supporters to “fight like hell” and go to Capitol Hill, their criticism has since softened.
The change was evident in a test vote on January 26. Only five Republican senators voted against a motion to dismiss the lawsuit.
It will take a two-thirds vote of the 100 Senate members to convict Trump of the impeachment charge, which is an “incitement to insurgency.” If all 50 Democrats voted to condemn him, 17 Republicans would have to join them to reach that threshold.
Most Republicans avoided defending Trump’s actions on the day of the riot. Instead, lawmakers argued the lawsuit was unconstitutional because Trump was no longer in office. Democrats and many jurists disagree.
After the test vote in January, many Republicans indicated that Trump’s acquittal was a given.
“Do the math,” said Maine Senator Susan Collins, one of five Republicans who voted to go ahead with the trial. Senator Lindsey Graham, RS.C., said he believed the vote was a “floor, not a ceiling” of Republican support for the acquittal.
Still, some Republicans have said they are waiting to hear arguments at trial. Ohio Senator Rob Portman voted for the rejection effort, but said constitutionality “is a whole different matter” than whether Trump is guilty of incitement.
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HOW DO TRUMP LAWYERS DEFENSE WITHOUT BONDING THE SENATE?
It is a difficult needle to thread. Trump’s team will likely try to remove emotion from the case and focus on legal and practical arguments against the conviction.
In their first request for a trial, his lawyers made it clear that they would challenge the constitutionality of the trial now that Trump has left the White House. This could give a boost to Republican senators who are inclined to acquit the former president without forgiving his behavior.
The defense could also argue that the trial is unnecessary, as Trump is no longer president, because impeachment is the automatic sanction of an impeachment conviction. Democrats note that after a conviction, the Senate could also bar Trump from holding public office in the future.
As defense lawyers are forced to grapple head-on against the violence and chaos of January 6, they will likely concede the horror of that day, but blame it on the rioters who stormed the city. Capitol. Trump’s lawyers say Trump never instigated an insurgency.
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HOW DO THE HOUSE TIE-IN RESPONSIBILITIES GET TO THE SEPTIC REPUBLICS?
It won’t be easy. The bottom line for prosecutors is that the riot wouldn’t have happened without Trump, so he must be held accountable.
It’s a straightforward case that Democrats say doesn’t need to be overstated, especially since five people have died amid the chaos and the senators themselves have been victims. The Senate quickly evacuated as the insurgents pushed up the stairs near the chamber. After the senators left, rioters broke in and searched lawmakers’ offices.
In a brief filed last week on their arguments, House impeachment officials used stark images and emotional appeals to argue Trump’s guilt.
Their file said the senators were “a stone’s throw away” from the swarming rioters, and noted that those outside “wearing Trump’s paraphernalia pushed and punched Capitol Hill cops, gouged out their eyes, assaulted them with pepper spray and projectiles ”.
In the House, impeachment officials wrote: “Terrified members have been trapped in the House; they prayed and tried to build makeshift defenses as rioters destroyed the entrance … some members called relatives out for fear they would not survive President Trump’s insurgent mob onslaught.
These scenes will come to life during the trial. Prosecutors are expected to watch a video of the attack during their presentations.
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Will we hear from TRUMP?
It doesn’t seem likely. He rejected through his lawyers a request for the testimony of those responsible for the indictment. A subpoena to compel his testimony is not expected at this stage.
Trump also no longer has access to Twitter, which he relied heavily on during his first impeachment trial last year to attack the case against him and to retweet posts, videos and other messages from Republicans haranguing Democrats.
With Trump at his Florida resort, his lawyers will be left to argue on his behalf. Democrats have vowed to restrain Trump’s reluctance to testify against him at trial, but the argument may not resonate. It’s not clear that Republican senators – even those likely to acquit him – really want to hear him.
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WHAT HAPPENS IF TRUMP IS ACQUIRED?
The likelihood of Trump’s acquittal worries some senators, who fear the consequences for the country. Some have raised the possibility of censoring Trump after the trial to ensure he is somehow punished for the riot.
But there may be another way Congress can stop Trump from taking a future job.
In an opinion piece published last month in the Washington Post, Yale law professor Bruce Ackerman and Indiana University law professor Gerard Magliocca suggested that Congress could look to a provision of the 14th Amendment which seeks to prevent individuals from holding federal office if they are found to have “engaged in an insurrection or rebellion against” the Constitution.
The professors wrote that if a majority vote from both houses agreed that Trump had engaged in an act of “insurgency or rebellion,” then he would be banned from running for the White House again. Only a two-thirds vote from each chamber of Congress in the future could reverse this result.
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