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The best I can say, 10 of the 15 teams in the league in LA still consider themselves "in the running", while apparently only the Giants and Marlins are, at this point, put on creators before the deadline.
At 28-32 and five games from last place in the Wild Card, the Mets are currently part of the NHL teams on the fence. To hit 90 wins, which is usually necessary to reach the playoffs, the Mets will play baseball .560, which is not impossible. If that happens, start now, especially this week playing against the Giants and the Rockies at home.
This is not going to be easy, however, especially with several underperforming key players, badly treated or on the injured list. In the best case, the Mets are slightly above .500 and are within reach of the Wild Card by winning or dividing each series by the end of July. Hope this level of success would make buyers.
However, if they play sideways or less well in the next few weeks, they will undoubtedly be sellers seeking to evolve pitchers and bench players.
In the event that General Manager Brodie Van Wagenen decides to become a seller, here are five players on his list that will generate interest before the deadline of July 31, followed by teams likely to interest him.
Seth Lugo
Lugo was activated last week after spending time on the list of injured to recover from tendonitis in the right shoulder. To date, he has been one of the best pitchers on the team. His 2.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 35 strikeouts in 28.1 innings impressed teams needing help in the market.
In addition, with 168 innings in his career as a starting pitcher against 126 innings as a replacement, he adds value to a new team by adding depth to the rotation.
Lugo is expected to earn about $ 300,000 by the end of the season, which will make him a bargain compared to the $ 4 to $ 5 million war value that he is supposed to provide by FanGraphs at during this period. He is eligible for refereeing next season for the first time in his career and will not be a free agent until the 2022 season, by which time he will be 32 years old.
Mets may be reluctant to treat it because of its value over the next few seasons, but that is precisely why it has significant commercial value.
Lugo is perfect for the Braves, who need a starting pitcher and a reliever. However, I presume that Van Wagenen would be reluctant to face him in Atlanta if he is convinced that he can compete with them for the division in the coming seasons.
That said, rumors say that the Twins, A, Cubs and Dodgers would all be on the market for versatile and very effective help, but I would bet that this list also includes 10 to 12 other teams.
Robert Gsellman
Almost everything I've just written about Lugo can apply here at Gsellman, including salary, years of officiating, and starting pitcher and respite experience.
Gsellman is a few years younger than Lugo, but he was much more inconsistent and a little less efficient. That said, he proved he could be an effective striker thanks to his sink and his ability to quickly get endless balls on the ground. Following the trading of Mets Jeurys Familia Last summer, Gsellman took on the closest role and blocked nine stops in the second half. The problem is that when this toad does not work, it tends to be hit hard and get deeper shots.
I think any team interested in Lugo will also be interested in Gsellman, which puts Van Wagenen in an interesting position. He could count on his internal stats, scouts and player development officials to determine who he should keep and who he should be looking after. Or he can keep or exchange the two players. The problem is that by having two pitchers earning little money each with a three-year check and the ability to play multiple roles, Van Wagenen has options in a part of the market where many teams will buy.
Noah Syndergaard
The market for beginner pitchers will be busy and will not materialize until the end of July, but I think the giants will relocate Madison Bumgarner as soon as they met with an attractive agreement.
It's early, but I hear the cardinals, astros, braves, pirates, brewers, padres, rockies and angels are already turning to the teams to set the stage in July.
At the same time, some of these organizations expect Nationals, Rangers, Blue Jays and, of course, Mets to have the opportunity to sell, especially Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler.
I know, I know, you have heard everything and read everything before: Syndergaard has a market value, he is wanted by several teams, the reports indicate that Van Wagenen is open to the exchange, the Mets deny all that has been reported and, inevitably, Syndergaard stays away. .
I think the same thing will happen again in July. However, if the Mets have to handle it, this summer may be the best time to do it.
Syndergaard is 26 years old and is expected to earn between $ 3 and $ 4 million the rest of the season. He will then again be eligible for arbitration and will become a free agent after 2021. At the same time, he has a good season. Or, I should say that it's not the dominant season, similar to Thor's, expected from him.
He is about to launch 210 runs and about 3.5-4.0 WAR, according to FanGraphs. This is disappointing for Syndergaard, but would be a significant addition to any team needing a pitcher. In addition, the acquisition team has it for two more seasons.
In the past, whether under Van Wagenen or his predecessor, Sandy Alderson, it was said that the Mets demanded elite prospects and one or two big players in a contract with Syndergaard.
The Mets generally had offers of Jacob deGrom at the same time. With DeGrom inked now on a long-term extension, the focus will be on Noah, whom Van Wagenen has certainly considered worthy of his long-term contract.
Van Wagenen could still keep Syndergaard, determine the likelihood of the Mets competing in 2020 and looking to sell his pitcher number 2 this winter. The risk of the Mets keeping Syndergaard, however, is a potential injury, making it almost impossible to treat now or this winter. It also risks delaying contract negotiations next year.
It seems the other teams are looking at it the same way.
"At the present time, we see him as one of the top 20 throwers in the National League, and not among the top 10," said one AL talent evaluator. "To be honest, I would prefer to sacrifice less for Wheeler and get a man for this season only, because I still see a risk associated with Syndergaard, considering how he launches baseball."
Zack Wheeler
The demand for him will be less than Syndergaard, yet Wheeler has a little less mileage on his arm, he has the best of both seasons and he is also about to launch 200 innings.
In addition, unlike Syndergaard, Wheeler is expected to become a free agent this fall, which will likely drive him past the last two months of the year.
It was difficult to get an idea of the commercial value of Wheeler, because it will probably make three or even more than four more starts before legitimate trade rumors come up. However, I would like to know what the Giants have for Bumgarner to know who might have an interest in Wheeler and what they will be willing to pay.
Edwin Diaz
It will be very interesting to see how Van Wagenen manages Diaz, especially since up to six teams will be on the market for an established family.
In addition to having a ton of talent, a proven track record and an additional three years under contract, Diaz was an important part of Van Wagenen's brand swap last winter with the Mariners. If Diaz is distributed and Robinson Cano continues to underperform, trade with Seattle will prove to be a colossal collapse.
Cano's contribution over the next few years is needed, but Diaz as a high-end picker provides Van Wagenen with a unique value, especially since Diaz is only 25 years old and the only one in the world is the same. Arbitration is eligible for the first time this winter.
"It has had its ups and downs, but still has a very good year compared to other types of servers available," said the same evaluator mentioned above. "I can think of some teams that will almost certainly ask me for news."
Matthew Cerrone (Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | Contact) is the main author of MetsBlog.com, which he created in 2003. He also hosts the podcast MetsBlog, which you can subscribe here. His new book, The Bucket List of New York Mets fans details 44 things every Mets fan should experience in their lifetime. To check it, click here!
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