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So far this week we have evaluated the priority waiver thread adds and players to trade against before week 1. Today the focus is on the players we want to offload before the start of the season.
These are the players who are most likely to lose value once real game action follows. So by thinking strategically to stay ahead of the game, we can maximize our returns.
The use of ADP is an excellent indicator of current public opinion. Since we have focused on players with ADP above 170 for waivers, we will focus on an average ADP of 170 or below (based on FantasyPros PPR data) for trading purposes.
Remember, the goal is to get value for these players before they perform poorly against their current ADP. Not all business opportunities are created equal – you will need the right business partner. Negotiate from deep areas – where it makes sense – and target teams with excess talent in your area of need.
Finally, make sure you understand the rules of your league. List formats are crucial in determining strategy. For example, don’t trade flexible starting players for saves somewhere else. The PFF Fantasy Football table of exchanges can help you assess different scenarios, especially if you are playing in a standard scoring league, as this article focuses more on the PPR and half-PPR.
For this exercise, we have left aside authentic handcuffs games that are 100% dependent on a teammate’s injury. Let’s start with the more expensive ADP types and move on to the less expensive ones.
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RB David Montgomery, Chicago Bear | ADP: 31
I exposed the case for Montgomery fades at ADP earlier this week, and the same logic applies to why we want to proactively move it. To summarize:
- He’s not an explosive playmaker
- He has competition for carries and targets
- Justin Fields will eventually add additional competition
If you started your draft with a lot of weight and Montgomery is your third or fourth fullback, target a Level 3 or 4 receiver in a direct agreement with a wealthy manager in this position. The PFF Fantasy Football commercial board is full of names from those levels that come close to Montgomery’s current value.
If you are thinner at the back, consider targeting someone from Level 5 Where Level 6 and hang on Trey’s sermon. Ian Hartitz has Online Sermon for 45% of Niners Rush Attack in Week 1, and I agree with him. Sermon’s role could also grow as the season progresses, giving you pop potential for the playoff push. As a result, the Ohio State rookie is my most scored return with an ADP in the top 85.
RB Miles sanders, Philadelphia Eagles | ADP 38
I also limited my exposure to Sanders. My approach was not as extreme as my approach with Montgomery because Sanders was more explosive. I expect the Eagles’ offensive line to improve significantly after an injury-ridden season.
However, Nick Sirianni has a habit of deploying a multi-back attack that ironically stems from his time under the leadership of former Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich. Running backs coach James Singleton echoed those sentiments this preseason:
“You need a first and second runner with that really elite ability. You need a guy who can pass protection on the third try and have a short distance. You need a back that can travel roads, and you can put it on empty. It’s really a combination of that. I think back in the days of “it’s a rock-solid back” it’s a bit skewed these days because of the speed, because of the contact.
With the Eagles carry two talented receivers into the season in Boston Scott and Kenneth GainwellSanders appears to be the back at the start and perhaps the main option in the five. However, Jalen hurts will provide competition for touches whenever the team is within striking distance.
All signs point to a feared committee situation that will devalue Sanders’ actions once confirmed, giving time to act now.
Ian Hartitz Week 1 Projected Volume:
Consider a plan similar to the one presented above for Montgomery to maximize your returns.
RB Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | PAD: 83
How Fournette supported this ADP is unfathomable to me. The only bright spot for the Tampa backfield is the power of that offense. Unfortunately, we are looking at the barrel of a three-way committee with the addition of Giovani Bernard, which drastically impacts Fournette.
Last season, 45% of Fournette’s fantastic value came from passing play. As of week 7, it took over as a two-minute primary attack, handling 84% of snaps. This role most likely belongs to Bernard this season.
The most likely role for Fournette in 2021 is to provide Ronald jones ii a break every three sets on the first downs and the snipers wear inside the five. He might have an occasional hot breakout week, but good luck predicting when that will happen.
If you could move Big Lenny into a starving team, I’d be willing to do that for almost anything in return. Jaylen waddles, Mark Callaway, Sony michel and Marshall Jr Terrace. are all below Fournette in ADP and are much better options.
WR Brandin cooks, Houston Texans | PAD: 89
Last season, Cooks was a solid value as an investment in either Round 7 or Round 8 with Deshaun Watson at the helm and Will Fuller V in front to draw in opposing defenders. Now Cooks will be the focal point of every defensive coordinator as he attempts to catch passes from Tyrod Taylor.
It’s a huge difference, and the market has under-reacted. Despite the lack of competition for Taylors ‘affection, I don’t expect Cooks’ target share to move much, if at all. Historically he’s been a good but not a great player, and the target rate of 18% to 21% per road seems to be at home.
When you combine that number with the implications of Watson’s loss, you can see 1150 yards turn into 800 and the touchdowns go from six to three or four. The underlying usage metrics will be good on this one after week 1, but the effectiveness will go down.
Corey davis currently has an ADP similar to Cooks, but if for some reason it went later in your draft I would my priority target. Unfortunately, this is probably not a job you can do, given their proximity to ADP. You can, however, realistically attack several other pass capture options such as Elie Moore and Jakobi Meyers in Level 9 and level 10. All of these rank above Cooks, who land at level 11.
WR Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers | PAD: 122
I recently stated my reasons for Williams fading. Anyway, I think he is what he is, and I’m not buying the hype around the “X” role in the Joe Lombardi attack. Williams failed to eclipse a 17% road goal rate in four seasons as a top-seven pick in the draft.
Expect Keenan Allen to continue to dominate targets as he works inside the roads in the short and middle areas of the terrain. Oh yeah, these are the domains Michael thomas attacked from position X in New Orleans. So despite the Z or Y designation based on the roster, Allen will continue to win in those areas, meaning Williams will have to attack other spaces frequently.
Sell those headlines as the hype behind an effort to offload Williams to a fancy bad manager in your league. I prefer all of the options described above under Fournette.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
RB Myles Gaskin, Miami dolphins | ADP 50
Gaskin, like the other full-backs mentioned above, faces a potentially lousy committee situation. He profiles himself as a player with disappointing explosiveness and Needs substantial transmission volume to support its current ADP.
Additionally, the Dolphins have significantly upgraded their weapons this offseason, which creates another hurdle to overcome for the return of low-circulation capital. Seeing a path to a 15% target share and 70 receptions requires stronger glasses than my current prescription, which makes him a disappear/ sell play for me.
QB Justin herbert, Los Angeles Chargers | ADP 62
I love Herbert, but he has just enough red flags in the current ADP to make him a player to trade. He could take a step forward in 2021, but he will need to correct several underlying sticky data points for his game to break even:
- 25e 32 in clean pocket grade
- 27e 32 in negative throws
- 25e as an elusive percentage of success
Finally, expect a more balanced attack with the new coaching staff and potential growing pains for the new attack. This all adds up to a lower ceiling and floor, which means Herbert is likely at his peak for 2021 right now.
Its ADP should be closer to Ryan tannehill, Matthew Stafford and lower Tom brady and Jalen hurts. If you can move Herbert to Brady or Hurts and grab some extra roster components, do that.
WR Michael thomas, Saints of New Orleans | ADP 77
Thomas is a questionable option for the roster as his value technically can’t go down once the season has started – he is expected to rise every week, we’re closer to a comeback. However, I placed him here because we might have some bad news about his recovery or his relationship with the team. If you can find a value within 20 points of its ADP, strongly consider taking a step.
RB Melvin Gordon III, Denver Broncos | ADP 79
Gordon is a good RB2 / 3 filler early in the season if needed, but his value could dip in Week 1 if Javonte Williams gets more work than expected or makes a few big plays. Sure, he would get a big bump if Williams got injured, but we can tell for any RBBC backfield.
TO Robert tonyan, Green Bay Packers | ADP 89
The chances of Tonyan repeating his 11 TD season are unlikely. These scores represented 37% of his fantastic production, catapulting him to first place in points compared to expectations (52.2 points). If you can fit it into a package that gives you the player you want, then take a step and replace it with Cole Kmet out of the waiver thread.
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