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“However, we are seeing steady increases and that is a concern,” he said. “And the other thing that’s a huge concern is that if the new strain takes hold here, it can really spread really, really quickly.
Epidemiologists are reluctant to call for new immediate lockdowns. Instead, for now, they are calling for targeted measures to try to reduce infection rates, such as a push for more testing in the most affected and among the most vulnerable zip codes.
Conversely, the parts of the city with the lowest rates of the virus – wealthy zip codes in Manhattan and Brooklyn – tend to have the highest test rates, according to city data. That should change, Dr Frieden said, with more testing in the hardest hit areas.
Patrick Gallahue, a spokesperson for the city’s health department, said the city was already focusing its testing resources in hard-hit areas. Additional restrictions on businesses or gatherings, he said, should be adopted by the state.
But to turn the tide in New York City before a vaccine takes effect will likely require more drastic measures, such as a lockdown, several experts have said.
City officials need state clearance before proceeding with citywide closures, except schools. Mr Cuomo suggested that schools should only close if the infection rate inside school buildings is higher than in the community. As of midweek, the city-wide positive test rate in schools was much lower, at 0.49%.
Dr Nash said other red lines and metrics should be set to guide stop decisions, such as one regarding mortality: How many deaths per day will we accept before locking in? He also called for more attention to local conditions, such as virus levels in neighborhoods with overwhelmed intensive care units, and the speed of transmission of the virus, a measure known as R0, which no is not regularly published by the state. State officials say they are tracking these numbers internally.
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