8 things to know about Sunday’s NJ Nor’easter

3.) Where is the snow bubble?

The keys to the success of this forecast are to determine:
1.) Who will receive a winter mix or direct rain, and how long will it last?
2.) Who will see the heaviest snow bands?

My most recent snow map (above) is my guess at how these two factors will play out.

– The Sweet Spot … It looks like the NJ Turnpike Corridor through the interior of southern and central New Jersey will see the heaviest snowfall and 4-6 inches and more of snow accumulation. (Behind the scenes, I debated labeling this area 4-8 “ or even a straight line ~ 6 “. I wouldn’t exclude 8 “of snow in places – there are even outliers of up to 10” or 12 “- but I think the mixing problem and band uncertainty make 6” a very good estimate. more likely for widespread snowfall.)

—Too hot at the coast … While our initial snow forecast looked encouraging for snow enthusiasts along the Jersey Shore, it’s now pretty clear that the rain and winter mix will eventually crush those winter dreams. I would expect the green area of ​​the map to see mostly rain and / or a mixture of slush from early until around noon on Sunday, missing most of the storm’s “weight”. There is a chance for all snow in the afternoon, with limited accumulations possible given the low intensity of snowfall and wet ground at this time.

—North Jersey Too Far … The far north of New Jersey will be spared the worst of this storm on the coast. You will still see snow, in the range of 2 to 4 inches. But the heaviest snow should stay south – that’s no guarantee, but that’s where the model consensus points.

4.) What about the agitation factor?

No forecast is complete without a confidence measure, a statement of how “locked in” the predicted scenario is.

In this case, I would say that trust is high that we will see moderate to heavy snowfall over much of New Jersey. The storm would have to move a lot for it to be completely missed.

Trust is way that the snow totals will reflect the map I drew above. If large mesoscale snow bands establish 25 miles in either direction, that will obviously affect who sees the most snow. If temperatures (surface or aloft) are just a few degrees from expectations, we might see more (or less) mixing along the coastal areas.

The forecasts are therefore clearer than they had been, that’s for sure. And the fact remains that the snow spread of 6 inches will always have significant winter impacts. But let’s also remember that this forecast is still very sensitive to the exact trajectory of the storm, which is indeed still subject to tremors.

5.) What warnings and advisories have been issued?

The National Weather Service issued a Winter storm warning for the following times and counties:
—4 am Sunday to 7 pm Sunday … northwest of Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, West Monmouth, Morris, Salem and Somerset counties.
—Sunday 6 am to 9 pm Sunday … Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Eastern Passaic and Union counties.

A less serious, less urgent, less dangerous Winter weather warning is posted for:
—4 am Sunday to 7 pm Sunday … Atlantic, South East Burlington, Cape May, Cumberland, Coastal Counties of Monmouth, Ocean, Sussex and Warren.
—6 am Sunday to 9 pm Sunday … West Passaic County.

6.) Winds or coastal flooding?

Nope.

Wind gusts can approach 30 mph, in particular after storm like arctic air gushes from the northwest.

The storm will move so quickly that it will not have the opportunity to move our ocean upstream. A storm surge of a few centimeters should not cause any coastal flooding problems. (Especially since our astronomical tide is relatively low right now, due to a waning crescent moon.)

7.) What is the bottom line?

It’s going to snow. This is a rapid storm system, entering and exiting in about 12 hours. Expect wintry weather early Sunday morning for part of the afternoon. This snow will be heavy for a while, away from the coast. Certainly peelable for most states. Probably arable.

Travel will be difficult during the height of the storm, due to poor visibility and poor traction. Hopefully the crews will have enough time to clear the snow by Monday morning’s ride. (Keep in mind that snow removal operations will take much longer in areas with a foot of snow already on the ground from Monday’s storm.)

I suspect that affected schools would lean more towards a delayed opening situation (or virtual learning day), if applicable, rather than a simple “snow day” closure. (Sorry for the kids.) For all of the decision makers reading this, you should make this call at the last minute possible, depending on your own local conditions and policies on Sunday evening and / or Monday morning.

8.) What’s the next step?

For the third consecutive weekend, I return to the weather center for the weekend. (It’s the season!) I can’t wait to bring you the latest forecast before and during this winter storm, on the 14 stations that make up Townsquare New Jersey’s weather network.