[ad_1]
The $ 1.5 trillion tax cuts and the increase in Trump's public spending spurred wage and employment gains, bringing the economic growth rate to nearly 3%. 2018. Economic factors such as income, wage bill and GDP are widely used to predict election results. improvement since Trump took office, Goldman said.
"A strong economy should contribute to the president's chances of re-election.Polecologists have developed over the years a number of electoral models based primarily on economic variables to predict the bipartisan popular vote," Hatzius said.
In addition, candidates coming out of their party's first term received a larger share of the two-party vote than candidates whose party has already been controlling the White House for two or more terms, according to Goldman. This "important" historical model would give Trump a "narrow advantage," said Hatzius.
While Trump's approval rate is only 40%, according to an average calculated by the FiveThirtyEight website, the number is not so low contextualized, the Goldman economist pointed out. In fact, Hatzius said that Trump could still win the fight for re-election, even with a general negative opinion.
"We note that while President Trump maintains his net approval rating of -9.6 percentage points, combining this approach with our economic forecasts suggests that he would win the bipartisan popular vote with a small margin" said Hatzius.
Goldman's view also appears to be in line with the Wall Street consensus, as more than 70% of market insiders expect Trump to be re-elected in 2020, according to a poll conducted by RBC in April.
[ad_2]
Source link