Trump's fundraising figures show his campaign is in the Democrats' field

The latest statistics from President Donald Trump on fundraisers indicate that he will be a formidable opponent for all Democrats emerging from an overcrowded primary field facing him in the general election next year. .

Trump raised $ 30.3 million in the first quarter of this year, roughly the same figure as the two largest fundraising democrats, Bernie Sanders ($ 18.2 million) and Kamala Harris (12 millions of dollars).

In an unusual move, Trump officially announced his re-election campaign just days after its inauguration, and this is reflected in his fundraising figures. According to the New York Times, at this point in the 2012 presidential election cycle, Barack Obama – who launched his re-election campaign on April 4, 2011 – had less than $ 2 million. Trump, on the contrary, currently has a $ 41 million war chest.

Trump's strong fundraising is also reflected in the figures of the National Republican Committee, which raised $ 45.8 million in the first quarter. The National Democratic Committee lagged far behind this pace and had $ 4.6 million in debt at the end of January. When Trump's fundraising is combined with RNC's efforts for Trump, it totals $ 82 million.

In his campaign launch speech in June 2015, Trump swore: "I'm using my own money. I do not use lobbyists. I do not use donors. I'm mad. I am really rich. While he has kept his promise to fund his campaign on his own, the latest fundraising figures show how much Trump is taking things seriously for the second time.

Trump has the small investors that Democrats have tried to cultivate

According to the Trump campaign, nearly 99% of donations received in the first quarter of this year were $ 200 or less, with donors donating an average of just over $ 34. Democrats have also targeted modest funders. Tara Golshan of Vox and Theodore Schleifer of Recode explained:

Here is the conventional gold standard: what percentage of the total money collected comes from investments below $ 200? We know the sum of these donations from the line that shares the total number of "unitized" contributions in the FEC reports. Be wary of campaigns that absorb the percentage of their contributions less than $ 200 – which is not the same statistic (for example, if 50 people donated $ 1 but only one donor gave $ 2,800?) The "average contribution" figure, sometimes self-reported, can also tell you something.

In all respects, Trump already meets this standard. And unlike the Democrats, who have made various promises to reject corporate money for the CAP and large donations, Trump has done no such thing. This means that the president already has local power and support from Republican megadoners, who could step in at any time.

Trump has two main things for him

Although Trump was the underdog in the last election, there were two things that had boosted him in addition to fundraising: the strength of the economy (assuming it remains strong) and seniority.

As Vox's Dylan Scott explains, "the link between the economy and the presidential approval has become" increasingly detached ", but political scientists still view it as a major factor in Presidential election of 2020. It is also a trend line on which Trump can not necessarily rely:

In general, GDP grew a little faster under Trump than at the end of the Obama presidency. To leave alone if the president deserves any credit for this improvement, it augurs well for his chances of re-election if it continues.

The question is whether it's okay. The Federal Reserve recently revised down its GDP growth forecast for 2019 from 2.3% to 2.1% and for 2020 to 1.9%. This is not a guarantee, but these projections are a warning sign for the president.

The other important factor – seat occupancy – is also nothing to sneeze. Matt Yglesias of Vox said simply:

[I]Outgoing Presidents are usually re-elected. The same goes for the titular members of Congress. The extraordinarily high rate of re-election of members of the House has of course to do with gerrymandering, but studies have shown that the effects of room occupancy are very real. Bob Corker's decision not to run again in the 2018 elections is good news for the Democrats, not because Tennessee is a particularly promising ground for a Democratic party, but because an open seat is intrinsically easier to win than that of a holder.

Trump has three goals: fundraising, president nomination, and a strong economy for him.

But Trump also has a major problem: he is unpopular.

Trump's approval rating, though increasing over the last two years, remains stubbornly underwater – that is, more people disapprove of it than approve it. And perhaps alarmingly for a president who likes to talk endlessly about his victory at the Electoral College, he is actually much more unpopular in the key states that have rocked him above his goals.

Morning Consult, who follows Trump's approval ratings, shows him diving underwater in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio – all states that played a crucial role in Trump's victory.

Morning Consult

That's what made the Democrats' biggest victory in the House in 2018. They capitalized on some of Trump's most unpopular policies: health care and its tax bill.

He still has a lot of time to improve. After all, the latest Gallup poll indicates that its approval rate is 45%, which equates to the high water mark of its entire presidency.

It is still very early

While Obama only had $ 2 million at the bank at this stage of his re-election campaign in 2012, he has finally raised more than a billion dollars. It's still very early in the cycle.

But the latest figures on fundraising are the most recent proof that Trump, despite his still low approval ratings and his barely painted sectarianism, will be hard to beat next year. And while Democrats spend the next year trying to outdo themselves in primary, his campaign will focus on continuing the growth of his war chest.

---

The new advance quickly. To stay up to date, follow Aaron Rupar on Twitter, and read more Political and political coverage of Vox.