2020 elections: Democrats in search of economic argument to counter Trump

LAS VEGAS – Republicans have long thought that if the only blow lasted the economy, President Donald Trump could win a second term.

Following a new wave of positive economic news – and without a consistent economic message – many Democrats are beginning to worry that this is the case.

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Left-wing anxiety hit new highs last week as the government reported that the country's economy had grown surprisingly fast in the first quarter of the year. While Trump felt the economy was booming, the Democratic presidential candidates plunged into the Mueller report and discussed whether incarcerated criminals should be allowed to vote.

On Thursday, under the impulse of former Vice President Joe Biden, they were returning to violence at a White Supremacy rally in 2017 in Charlottesville, Virginia. In his own campaign ad video, Biden did not explicitly mention jobs or the economy.

"We do not really have a strong national message yet" on the economy, said Celinda Lake, a leading Democratic strategist and pollster. "We will tend to talk about things like paid time off and pay equity – and these things are all very popular policies. But they do not add to an economic message strong enough to win the presidency and beat Donald Trump, who speaks of a very robust economic policy. "

She said, "You can accept or not, but you know what [his message] is. And the Democrats, you do not know what that is. And it's a recipe for a disaster in 2020. "

Mary Kay Henry, President of the Service Employees International Union, told a forum Saturday on wages and workers that "good specific ideas have been advanced for some sectors of the economy," for a global response "Democrats on the economy.

In part, the inability of Democrats to deliver a focused message on the issue depends on the breadth of the main field – a condition that is presumably curable once the party has chosen a candidate. Every senior Democratic candidate frequently talks about important parts of the economy, ranging from income inequality to the cost of health care and higher education. And most progressive Democrats argue these concerns as part of a broader call for a fairer economy. But with its diffuse voices, the party has not yet all tied into a disciplined and specific economic argument aimed at countering Trump..

"Our economy does not work for workers," said Senator Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) At the Las Vegas Labor Forum. Or, as Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) Said, "let the zillionaires pay a fair share."

he It is unclear which variant of this message will remain – or what policies may be needed to support this message. During the forum day organized by the SEIU and the Center for the American Progress Action Fund, Warren, Harris and four other presidential candidates deplored inequalities in the country's economic system and the challenges faced by low-income workers. salary and the middle class. Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-Min.) Presented her infrastructure spending plan as an economic measure, while Harris called for the banning of "right to work" legislation and praised it $ 6,000 tax break proposed by her to families earning up to $ 100,000. annually.

The former Colorado governor, John Hickenlooper, presented a plan for a national minimum wage of $ 15, the salary being gradually increased and indexed to the cost of living of a region in order to obtain higher minimums in the provinces. regions of the country where costs are high. Former Texas representative, Beto O 'Rourke, has promised to repair the "worst excesses" of tax cuts adopted by Republicans, and his compatriot, former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, has called for the extension of the income tax credit and investment in affordable housing. housing.

In his own campaign, Castro applauded, he even pays $ 15 an hour to his trainees.

"We have to go back to an America where everybody counts in this country," said Castro. "We must change our president, and we will be on a better path."

The challenge for Democrats, Henry said, is "to reveal that the economy works for a few", while "the overwhelming majority of Americans work two or three jobs without being able to make ends meet" .

In the absence of economic downturn, however, Trump still enjoys the lowest numbers that Democrats are struggling to undermine. The unemployment rate remains low, the economy is growing and the stock market indices of the S & P 500 and Nasdaq reached unprecedented highs on Friday.

According to a recent CNN survey, 71% of Americans favorably consider the country's economic conditions. On a matter of genuine concern to voters, Trump's otherwise sad public approval rate exceeds 50 percent.

"Our view is that it would be very wise for Democrats to recognize just how steep the mountain economy is," said Matt Bennett of the left-wing Third Way group. "There are some very popular things in this economy: a low unemployment rate, a lot of jobs, there has been a real increase in wages. We attribute zero, zero percent of this to a good Trump policy … But it will claim credit, as it does for sunrise and all the rest, and we must be aware that it could be powerful. "

"That means we need a very clear economic narrative that resonates deeply for the voters we need to win, and we'd better not be caught up in our own blue bubble world."

In some respects, Democrats are today in exactly the same rhetorical stance that Trump held in 2016. In that year's presidential election, Hillary Clinton pointed out that unemployment and the growth of Wages were proof of the strength of the economy with Democrat Barack Obama's White House – and Trump discounting favorable economic data.

Experts do not agree on the effect of economic anxiety – as opposed to racial or cultural turmoil – on the 2016 election. But economically, Trump actually painted at the margin, saying that despite his general state of health, the country's economic system did not work for those whom he persuaded to vote for him.

Now, it's Trump citing statistics that he's already considered fraudulent, while Democrats argue that economic indicators do not fully describe the state of the economy.

After the growth report released Friday by the Commerce Department, Trump said he's excited about what he's called an "unbelievable number" and an economy that, he says, "is doing well. ". At the same time, former Democratic Senate Leader Harry Reid of Nevada is disputed during a conference call with "It's amazing to see that we have the lowest unemployment rate." since the 1960s, but we still have people who can not find jobs. "

Sara Nelson, International President of the Flight Attendant Association (CWA), said the Democrats' challenge for 2020 is to focus on "what people really live in".

If the Democrats can do it, she said, "then people will change their minds about how they connect Trump to this economy."

Nelson is optimistic that party presidential candidates can craft a winning message on this issue.

However, she said, "I do not think we are here."