Polls show that Democrats should not try to prevent Trump.



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President Donald Trump listens to an event from Roosevelt Hall at the White House on Thursday.

President Donald Trump listens to an event from Roosevelt Hall at the White House on Thursday.

Alex Wong / Getty Images

Should the Democrats dismiss President Donald Trump? They have the votes in the House to do that, and Trump, with his subpoena challenge, is getting them to try. Some Democrats argue that even if destitution harms them politically and results in the acquittal of the Senate, they have a duty to oppose a deceitful president. But dismissal is not the only way to hold Trump accountable. There are better ways to go about it and Democrats can draw on the dozen national polls that have taken place since the release of Special Advocate Robert Mueller's report on April 18. Here are some lessons from these polls.

1. Do not be scared by the exoneration trick. Republicans say Mueller has exonerated Trump and the case is over, but the public does not buy it. Less than 40% of Americans said the investigation had "laundered" the president. In most polls, a majority said the investigation did not allow Trump to be eliminated. Even a large fraction of Republicans – 16% to 25%, depending on the question – said that the investigation had not been clarified by the president. And 60% of the public says that he lied about the cases under investigation. They do not trust him.

2. Do not start an impeachment. Since the publication of Mueller's report, seven national pollsters have asked whether Congress should initiate a recall procedure against Trump. In each sample, a strong majority – and in most cases, a majority – said no. The percentage of respondents who say yes has never reached the age of 40. And when respondents are asked about a hypothetical congressional candidate who supports impeachment, more of them say they would have voted against than for such a candidate. Something about the word Accused– Perhaps the impression that this reflects an agenda rather than an open evaluation of the facts – discourages people.

3. Continue the investigation. Some polls offer three options: terminate the investigation, continue the investigation, or begin impeachment. Only 1 in 6 people choose impeachment, but 2 out of 6 choose the middle option: continue the search. Together, pro-impeachment and search factions are a group representing approximately 50% of the hearings that could lead to an indictment. They agree, according to the questions, that the Congress should "continue its investigation of possible wrongdoings", "hold hearings to deepen" what Mueller has discovered, or "pursue his investigation to see if he Sufficient evidence exists to hold imputation hearings in the future. "

4. Summon Mueller. This is obvious. In a report of more than 2 to 1, the Americans think that the special council should testify before the Congress. Among the Democrats and the independents, the margins are overwhelming. Even Republicans, who support Trump on other issues, are divided on this one.

5. Concentrate on the obstruction and not on the collusion. Several polls have asked whether Trump "had plotted with Russia", "worked with Russia to influence" the 2016 elections, or "tried to coordinate with Russia to take advantage of his presidential campaign". In none of these surveys did a plurality answer yes. But the pluralities think that Trump has "committed an obstruction of justice," "tried to obstruct the investigation," "tried to obstruct or obstruct," "tried to derail or obstruct it, "and" tried to interfere in the investigation of Russia this amounts to an obstruction of justice. By a margin of 10 to 20 percentage points, they agree that Congress should "hold hearings" to "investigate whether Donald Trump has obstructed justice."

Something about the word AccusedMay give the impression that it reflects an agenda rather than an open assessment of the facts of.

6. Expand control. Most Americans regard Trump as corrupt. A two-to-one majority believes he committed crimes before being president. Half think that he has committed crimes as president, and a slim majority think that it is very or rather likely that "Russia has compromising information" about him. A Politico / Morning Consult poll asked voters a series of questions about whether Congress should consider various topics: Trump's tax returns, his "interests and trade arrangements," "the process by which Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump obtained a security clearance "and" Expenditure of Cabinet Secretaries, including travel and office furniture costs ". On each question, the percentage of respondents who said that the survey on such issues should be a major or important priority far exceeded the percentage who said the survey was not important or should not be continued.

7. Highlight Trump's challenge. Democrats will face headwinds as they move forward. Most voters believe that Trump's investigations "divert Congress from other national issues," and in a CNN poll, 44 percent of Americans said the Democrats "were doing too much … to investigate Donald Trump." But on a different issue in the same CNN poll, 54 percent said Trump was "too little … cooperating with Congressional Democrats who are investigating him". The key is to draw attention to Trump 's behavior towards Congress, rather than his behavior towards Trump. Two-thirds of Americans agree, for example, that the president should "publish his tax returns for public scrutiny". Democrats must constantly ask why he does not do it.

8. The election is the dismissal. A formal indictment would take months. The Republicans acquitted Trump in the Senate and he used this fight to rally his base, accusing the congressional Liberals of wanting to overthrow the election. Why play in his hands when you could instead investigate him as part of the normal monitoring process, present your hearings and conclusions to voters and invite them to vote on him in a year's time?

Mueller's investigation has already hurt Trump. In a Politico / Morning Consult poll, 30% of voters said the survey allowed them to see the president more favorably, but 47% said the opposite. Fifteen percent said they were more likely to vote for Trump as a result of the survey, but 23 percent said they were less likely. In a poll published by the Washington Post / ABC News, 14 percent of respondents said Mueller's findings made them more likely to support Trump's candidacy for re-election, but 36 percent said the findings further encouraged them. to oppose him. In both surveys, Democrats resisted the president, while 10 percent of Republicans expressed some disenchantment with him.

To eliminate Trump by impeachment, Democrats should get 67% of the vote in a Republican Senate at 53%. To overthrow him normally, it would be enough for them to win the majority of votes in a republican country between 25% and 30%. By controlling the House, Democrats have the power to investigate Trump and present their findings to the supreme jury: the people of the United States. It's a better court where to fight and an easier affair to win.

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