And if Joe Biden runs away with this thing?

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But there is another under-radar story that is emerging: Joe Biden is very far ahead of the rest of the giant field.

According to the national ballot average of Real Clear Politics, Biden now has a 23.5 points lead over Bernie Sanders (and the rest of the group). It's been a huge leap for Biden in just a few weeks, when his lead was only 6 points on Sanders in the RCP. Biden is also leading in Iowa (+4 on average RCP), in New Hampshire (+13 in RCP) and South Carolina (+ 23.5%). (Nevada, which is one of the first caucuses, did not have enough surveys to produce actual averages.)

Now, Biden's bump is clearly the result of a positive press surrounding his entry into the race after months of hems and irons. The deployment of the former vice president was perfect, with no blunders or negative press coverage hindering his attempt to create momentum in the preparation for the announcement.

The most likely result is that Biden's numbers come back a bit earlier after the initial glow of his announcement. But even "coming back to earth" probably means that Biden 's nationwide advance is in the range – at a minimum – in the range of 10 to 15 points. This remains important, especially if he continues to lead the first key states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

All this suggests an interesting possibility: what if, in this giant field, Biden flees with the appointment? Despite the concentration on the number of riders, the race could actually be completed on February 3, 2020, if Biden crushes the field in the Iowa caucuses.

To be clear: this is not the most likely scenario. Primary voters – in both parties – tend to like competitive races. They do not like coronations. Hillary Clinton, at this stage of the 2016 election, had a much bigger lead over Sanders than Biden today. And this main fight was finally much closer – and lasting much longer – than anyone could have imagined at the time.

But there are three reasons to think that Biden could – focus on could – run away and hide with the appointment.

1) He is widely liked within the party. Biden's advance on his rivals does not result solely from the identification of his higher name. This is also because it is very well perceived by Democrats of all stripes. In CNN's latest poll late last month, more than 8 out of 10 Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of Biden, while only 12% had an unfavorable opinion. It's remarkable, especially for someone who has spent so much time in politics. And Biden's favorability figures are quite consistent among the different demographic groups: whites (79% positive), non-whites (84%), men (76%) and women (86%).
2) He runs very hard with black voters. In 2008 and 2016, African-American voters were the fundamental pillar of the winning coalitions of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in their primary Democrats. And, at the moment, Biden seems to have a similar number of people in this key constituency. As I noted above, it is very well received by non-white voters nationwide. And in the key country of South Carolina, where black voters make up nearly two-thirds of the Democratic primary electorate, Biden is very active. A new primary poll in South Carolina showed that Biden had a total of 46%, far ahead of Sanders, second with 15%. Among the black voters in this poll, Biden was at 58%!

3) There is not much competition for the coat of the establishment. While more than a dozen contestants seek to become the Liberal champion at the primaries, there is little competition for Biden in the centrist / establishment path. Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar is trying to be that kind of candidate, but is starting well behind Biden. Idem Bullock, which starts well behind even Klobuchar. South Bend's mayor, Pete Buttigieg, remains sort of a tabula rasa as to how he positions himself in the race but could, if he chooses, be a potential problem for Biden in the reasonable path of the centrist. But for now, Biden is leading in this space – and with very little obvious competition.

No elector will vote for the president before 265 days. And history suggests that fights for presidential appointments rarely become less competitive as votes get closer. But there is a way for Biden – even if it's narrow – to get to the nomination. The question is how long does it take?

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