Biden shows early strength, but pitfalls in US presidential race

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Former US Vice President Joe Biden has shown surprising strength during the first three weeks of his Democratic presidential nomination campaign, sparking a lingering question: can one stop him?

Biden holds a significant lead in polls on the other 23 Democratic candidates. Republican President Donald Trump treats him as his main threat in 2020.

Biden, 76, has apparently put an end to doubts about his age and ability to raise funds, as well as doubts that he is out of step with the Democratic party.

"The rest of the race now revolves around Joe Biden," said Joe Trippi, a longtime Democratic agent who is not aligned with the campaign.

But traps can be in front of us. The first important opportunity for Biden's competitors to enrich his lead will be next month in the first of a dozen Democratic presidential debates.

Biden could be the main target of attacks, especially from the progressives. It also has a history of gaffes, which could pose a problem in the national spotlight.

"I have been saying for a long time that Joe Biden's best days will be the beginning of this campaign," said Charles Chamberlain, executive director of the progressive advocacy group Democracy for America.

According to Real Clear Politics, Biden is supported by about 40 percent of Democratic voters on average in opinion polls, giving him a lead of more than 20 points over his closest rival, US Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

Experienced presidential strategists told Reuters that while they expect other Democrats to eventually become the main candidates, Biden's strength is likely to be lasting.

They cited two main factors: the vast field of the Democratic Party makes it difficult for any candidate, and voters tend to be reluctant to take risks when they seek a candidate to overthrow a president.

DISTANT

In recent elections, early candidates such as Democrat Al Gore, himself a former vice president in 2000 and Republican Mitt Romney in 2012, have largely limited the candidacy, despite some difficulties.

In 2008, Hillary Clinton, the Democrats' favorite, was overtaken by Barack Obama to get the nomination, but Obama took advantage of relatively small ground to regularly build support as a better alternative to Clinton. When Clinton ran again in 2016, Sanders tried to do the same thing with such a small pitch and was almost successful.

This becomes exponentially more difficult with the 2020 scrum, with more than 20 candidates vying for attention and money. Trippi said more than a dozen Democrats trying to challenge Biden had consulted with Trippi about his strategy.

"I told everyone of them that Joe Biden was going to be more awesome than they thought and that it would be hard for anyone to get out of this area," he said. -he declares.

Biden is also helped by the perception of some voters that it could be a safer choice to face Trump than a lesser known politician.

In 2004, at the time of the primary, long-time Democrat John Kerry, a member of the long-standing party with solid national security experience, used this argument to pull off Howard Dean's candidacy, as did Sanders. , a Vermont Progressive.

Robert Shrum, Kerry's supreme strategist at the time, said the Democrats were beginning to panic at the prospect of running for Dean's leadership against Republican President George W. Bush.

Which candidate could beat Bush became "the decisive question," Shrum said.

AVOID LANDMINES

Shrum warned, however, that the 2020 race could still change. Biden would be the oldest president ever elected, and he will have to "appear vigorous and energetic" during the debates, said Shrum.

"It's a dynamic process," Shrum said. "It is not frozen in amber. It depends a lot on his behavior. "

Biden, who spent 40 years in the US Senate and two terms as Obama's vice-president, must also defend his record with progressive voters who consider him too moderate.

In the past week alone, Biden has been challenged by his position on tackling climate change and his support for the crime bill of the 1990s, which critics see as a massive incarceration. African Americans.

"When we are at this stage of the campaign and the candidates will realize that the only way to increase their market share is to take Biden head-on. This is the real test that begins, "said Kevin Madden, former best-help of Romney.

These tensions within the party could lead to difficult times for Biden, despite his current position. In 2012, Romney was the first favorite, before yielding to challengers such as Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at different times before finally claiming again as a favorite.

Madden said Romney's campaign was made for the hat with the slogan "The Long Slog".

"No one is going to nominate you," he said, "and all the other candidates have a plan to remove you from it."