Heavy thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and in the evening while a strong cold front is blowing through

A strong cold front crossing the region will drop temperatures in the 70 degrees of May this Monday. But, as we approach the arrival and arrival this afternoon and tonight, strong thunderstorms are likely to occur in the area.

A vigil of violent storms was issued until 20 hours. A standby means that the conditions are favorable for strong storms but do not constitute a guarantee of dangerous weather. During a standby, you must remain alert to weather conditions, have a way to receive storm warnings and be prepared to seek shelter, if necessary.

If a severe storm warning is issued for your area, it means that strong storms are imminent and you have to get to the inside.

In addition to heavy rains and lightning, the main risk of storms crossing will be harmful winds and hail. Although unlikely, an isolated tornado can not be excluded either.

There should be more thunderstorms between 5pm and 8pm, but very scattered thunderstorms could develop after 2pm. in our western regions and at 3 pm somewhere else.

Storm dashboard

Approximate time of arrival of the main line of storms (previously widely dispersed storms, beginning between 2 pm and 3 pm):

• 16h to 18h western areas.
• 17h to 19h immediate area, including Capital Beltway.
• 5:30 pm to 7:30 pm areas east of Interstate 95.

Everything is clear: after sunset.

Duration of the storm: approximately 30 to 45 minutes.

Risks of measurable rainfall regardless of location: 60 percent.

Storm movement: from west to east.

Probable storm effects: heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds.

Possible storm effects: wind gusts damaging, hail.

Very small chance of: big hail, brief tornado.

Precipitation potential: very variable. Locally up to an inch or more in the strongest storms.

Discussion

This afternoon and evening, a cold front approaches the region from the northwest, accompanied by an energy wave in the upper atmosphere. These two features will encourage hot, humid air to bubble and form storm clouds later today.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in an area slightly at risk of severe storms, a level 2 out of 5 at its scale for the global storm threat.

Showers and thunderstorms are already erupting over the rugged terrain located to the west of the mainland region. These should gradually merge into larger storm complexes that will then drift east toward the metropolitan area.

The atmosphere is destabilizing, although some mid-level clouds may have slowed down this process a bit. There is enough moisture in the lower atmosphere to withstand heavy showers and convective storms, but overall, the atmosphere is drier than during the violent storms of the past week.

The wind shear, the increase in wind speed with altitude, is also much lower today than last week. This will limit the current tendency of the storm to develop concentrated rotational zones.

Even in this case, the combination of moderate instability and shear will be sufficient for storms that become better organized and stronger than "apparent" storms that disappear after about 30 minutes.

More than one wave of storms can be generated. Very scattered thunderstorms are possible from the mid-end to the end of the afternoon, before a more organized and widespread line or a broken line of storms earlier this evening (between 5 pm and 8 pm).

Stay tuned for updates, which will be posted at the top of this article if necessary.