The 2020 census should be missed again by thousands of young Ohioians; why it's important

CLEVELAND, Ohio – Some 73,600 Ohioians will not appear in the 2020 census, with children under five accounting for more than half of that total, according to a report released Tuesday by the Urban Institute.

The latter is the latest in a series of forecasts of the potential undercoverage of younger Americans. It also raised concerns about whether children's needs would be adequately addressed and whether federal spending on targeted programs would be spent in the right places.

An Ohio child under 5 years of age 18 could be excluded from the census, and one in 16 at the national level, estimates the Urban Institute.

"The census is a key element of our government and society at the national, regional and local levels. Estimates of this magnitude will have real implications for the next decade, including how we fund programs for children and invest in our infrastructure, "said Diana Elliott, Research Associate at the Urban Institute, when the publication of the report.

The Urban Institute, a non-profit research organization based in Washington, DC, wants to let people know that people must complete the census form next April and do it diligently to count all members of each household.

Nationally, nearly 1.3 million children under 4 could be among the 4.1 million people missed, according to the study.

Similarly, the Annie E. Casey Foundation has previously estimated that the number of people under the age of 5 would be underestimated by one million, roughly the same number that was omitted in 2010.

The census every 10 years is the most accurate count of the American population and serves as the basis for most other public and private studies. But this is not correct, as follow-up reports comparing other government files for specific groups show.

For example, low-income people who rent and move are often more likely to be missed. And studies have shown that minorities are more likely than others not to be counted, sometimes for not completing forms.

An analysis conducted following the 1940 census showed that the number of blacks in the repechage was 13% higher than what had been counted, said D'Vera Cohn, senior writer at the Pew Research Center. This gap far exceeded white men.

The Census Bureau itself has recognized the undercoverage of young children. According to a 2015 Census Bureau report, the children most likely to be missed were:

• Grandchildren or other family members living in a home without their parents or when a parent is not considered the owner.
• Hispanic or racial minorities.
• The occupants of the rented houses.
• Those who were born a few months after the census.

On March 12, the Census Bureau will begin sending notices to known addresses, telling one person per household how to complete the census form online or in print. Reminders will be sent when answers are not received.

In the absence of answers after several attempts, an enumerator will eventually go to the indicated address to try to determine the number of people, if any, who reside there. Neighbors can be invited. If these efforts are not successful, the office will look for other government records.

Even if the "commendable performance for 2010" is repeated, more people will probably miss in 2020, predicted Robert Santos, researcher and vice-president of the Urban Institute.

"One factor in itself is that the composition of the American population has evolved over time. By 2020, the US population will be more diverse than it was in 2010, "said Santos, noting that research has shown that minorities have historically been underestimated.

In addition, Santos said the Census Bureau had not done as many pre-tests as before trying to save money, and studies in the office have raised concerns about lower return rates if a citizenship issue is added . The last question is now in the hands of the US Supreme Court.

There are also cases of overconsumption, especially among high-income households, Santos said. This sometimes happens when people fill out census forms received in two homes or when an adult child counted at college is also mistakenly reported to their parents' address.

Here are the projections of the Urban Institute for Ohio:

• Non-Hispanic white: more than 7,700 (0.1%) to 70,600 (0.8%).
• Black: Undercoverage from 40,500 (2.5%) to 60,700 (3.7%).
• Asian: Undercoverage from 2,000 (0.6%) to 5,200 (1.5%).
• Hispanic: undercoverage from 9,700 (2%) to 17,000 (3.6%).
• 0 to 4 years: Undercoverage from 30 100 (4.2%) to 41 100 (5.7%).
• Total statewide: overstaffing from 19,200 (0.2%) to undercoverage of 73,600 (0.6%).

"There is enough time to let people know," said Elliott of the Urban Institute. … make sure people understand that the census is a civic responsibility. … to make sure their community is counted. "

More details Ohio and details for other states are published on this link.

Rich Exner, data analysis editor for cleveland.com, writing about numbers on a variety of topics. Follow on Twitter @RichExner. To follow 2020 census coverage on this link.