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With early debates coming out later this month, the 2020 primary polls are stubbornly stable.
Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a considerable lead and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) fell back to a distant second. Meaning. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Kamala Harris (D-CA) occupy third and fourth places; the order depends on the investigation. In South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former representative Beto O'Rourke (D-TX) and Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) are the only other candidates to receive outstanding support. All others are blocked at 1 or 2%.
Two new national surveys, CNN and Morning Consult, stand out, if only for their similarity and little change in recent months. First, from Morning Consult, a survey of 16,600 registered voters from May 27 to June 2:
- Joe Biden: 38 percent
- Bernie Sanders: 19%
- Elizabeth Warren: 10 percent
- Pete Buttigieg: 7%
- Kamala Harris: 7%
- Beto O'Rourke: 4%
- Cory Booker: 3%
CNN then polled 1,000 voters from May 28th to May 31st:
- Joe Biden: 32 percent
- Bernie Sanders: 18%
- Kamala Harris: 8%
- Elizabeth Warren: 7 percent
- Pete Buttigieg: 5%
- Beto O'Rourke: 5%
- Cory Booker: 3%
- Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): 2%
- Former Secretary of HUD and Mayor of San Antonio, Julián Castro: 2%
Given the margin of error, these polls are fundamentally the same. Biden has been in the running for a month and, despite the skepticism of the media and his competitors that he can keep his lead, he has not really dropped out at all. The debates, putting all candidates on the same stage and attracting a national television audience, could change that.
Biden's lead, however, does not seem discouraging enough in some of the early primary states. The average polls conducted in Iowa by RealClearPolitics gives it a 4-point lead over Sanders (24% vs. 20%). In New Hampshire, he has an average lead of 13 points, but the polls have been volatile, Sanders sometimes taking the lead. Biden seems to have a significant advantage in South Carolina, with an average lead of 24 points.
What explains the persistent lead of Biden? Older people.
The most interesting population of the polls of 2020, explained
In CNN's polls, break down the smallest data sets: How do men, women, whites, non-whites, university graduates, and non-university graduates bend? One trait is more striking than the others: age.
Here's how Democratic voters over the age of 45 divide, according to CNN:
- Joe Biden: 45%
- Bernie Sanders: 10%
- Elizabeth Warren: 8 percent
- Kamala Harris: 7%
And this is how candidates fear Democratic voters under 45:
- Bernie Sanders: 26%
- Joe Biden: 19%
- Kamala Harris: 9%
- Elizabeth Warren: 7 percent
The size of the samples in these polls becomes dangerously small when you start breaking down the respondents based on demographic factors such as age. But CNN finds tracks with what we have seen from other national polls.
A recent Quinnipiac poll showed Biden was ahead of Sanders by 38 points (46% to 8%) among voters over 50, but 23% of voters aged 18 to 49 were tied. support Biden; Sanders was 4% with these voters, while Warren and Harris had 10% and 11% respectively. However, among voters under 50, Biden (26%) and Sanders (25%) were related.
Age is becoming the most important dividing line of the Democratic primary. In the CNN survey, men, women, whites and non-whites all followed roughly the same trends: Biden leading at around 30%, Sanders at about 10 points behind him, then a group of others candidates. Age and, to a much lesser extent, education are the only areas that have significantly moved away from the top line.
It's Biden against the field … for the moment
The Democratic primary is waiting for the moment: Biden is well ahead, then the names behind him continue to scroll, varying from one poll to another, with Sanders usually in second place and Warren and Harris just behind him.
The main debates, which will begin this month, could start to change things when a national television audience will finally have the chance to see the candidates on stage together. We have seen Sanders and Warren begin to take more pointed shots at the leader of the California Democratic Congress this weekend, a sign of the future.
The rest of the Democrats group breaks down into Biden's rivals and substitutes, as Kyle Kondik from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia recently explained to me. Sanders and Warren lead rival Biden; Pete Buttigieg and Beto O'Rourke are clearly replacing. Harris is somewhere in between, a generational contrast to the vice president who endorsed progressive policies such as Medicare-for-all, but who also avoids ferocious ideological rhetoric.
"Biden's rivals are the candidates who hope to become the main alternative to Biden and who can mobilize the support of younger and more liberal voters," Kondik said. "Biden's substitutes are those who seek to supplant Biden as a candidate who can rally the most moderate / old elements of the party."
So we wait and see. As the Washington Post's Dave Weigel reports, the other Democratic campaigns are skeptical about the length of Biden's status as a favorite and voters give them reason to believe that:
Donna Duvall, 70, was still looking for an alternative to Biden, whom she had seen in Dubuque three weeks earlier and left her a little cold.
"He made a great presentation, but I did not feel very energetic and engaged," said Duvall. "I did not think he had a lot of specific proposals; J & # 39; Love [Massachusetts Sen.] Elizabeth Warren a lot, and she made a lot of specific proposals. I loved Joe as a Vice President, but I feel that maybe it's someone whose time has passed. "
The hopes of 21 Democrats – everyone on the ground except Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who are # 1 and # 2 in most polls – lie with voters like Duvall.
This is the reason why so many candidates have entered the campaign: they do not believe that Biden is a favorite. If he hesitates, it becomes an open race that everyone can win.
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