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Where is the problem with Dallas Keuchel? The key word is "think" because the teams and the leftist representative, Scott Boras, do not hold exactly weekly press briefings on the subject:
Even at this late date, money is the key. In a text, Boras said that nothing was urgent on Keuchel because the teams concerned had been sequestered in their newsrooms. But I feel that the Yankees and other clubs will apologize long enough if Keuchel / Boras says yes to what's on the table.
So, what was on the table is probably still not good enough, even after months of free will. Even after Sunday, midnight came and went and a team of signatures would no longer be compensated by signing Keuchel (or Craig Kimbrel).
2. Keuchel and Kimbrel both rejected the qualifying offer, which amounted to $ 17.9 million. So, to save a face, there is at least the perception that you need to at least get the prorated portion of $ 17.9 million. Eliminate Kimbrel from this discussion, as the leaders I spoke to say that the closest one is still trying to sign a multi-year contract and one of its leaders has described it as a priority for the Twins. In addition, none of the New York teams will appear after Kimbrel, while the Yankees are very interested in Keuchel.
I've talked to a few officials who said that Boras had proposed two- or three-year concepts in which Keuchel could retire after this season. But there seems to be a stronger conviction that a one-year deal is much more possible and, for example, that's all the Yankees are willing to do.
3. Why was Keuchel not signed? As the prorated portion of $ 17.9 million still represents $ 11.5 million and, as one team official said, "few teams have budgeted $ 11 million at this time of the year". At this point, most clubs have a good idea of participation. and suites sold, etc., and thus an idea of what can be spent.
The Braves have been strongly associated with Keuchel, but their price makes them uncomfortable. The Phillies and Twins have a budget to do it if they wish, as well as the cardinals. Of course, the same goes for the Yankees, although they are trying to avoid the luxury tax threshold of $ 246 million (Yanks currently anticipate about $ 20 million below that threshold). So, again, why did not one of the eager teams do that?
4. Because all teams are probably really concerned about what they will get. In 2014, Boras' clients, Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales, both rejected the qualifying offer and waited until compensation for the draw to have disappeared in May (draft was earlier) before signing. Both had poor results and were traded during the season.
Another Boras customer, Greg Holland, rejected the qualifying bid after the 2017 campaign and did not sign with St. Louis until the opening of last year's season (for a total of 3, $ 4 million with the qualification offer). He then launched so badly that the Cardinals released him. Another Boras customer, Mike Moustakas, rejected the qualifying bid after the 2017 season, which eventually signed back with the Royals, but for just $ 6.5 million. He has met his usual standards, but has not yet earned what he could have by accepting the offer of qualification.
Teams need to be concerned that not following a normal baseball schedule will leave Keuchel / Kimbrel at a lower level, even if Keuchel launches simulated games every five days.
5. So, I think the teams want to create a contract with a guaranteed base, then that Keuchel earns a certain amount, for example, so that, when he launches the rest of the race, he wins 11.5 millions of dollars or more. It would not be different from the pact of minor leagues that Boras forged with the Yankees during the spring training, during which Gio Gonzalez would get a $ 3 million base in the majors and could then win up to $ 12 million. dollars in regular throws (Gonzalez left the Yankees and Boras to sign with the brewers).
6. Of course, Keuchel's camp wants a base as high as possible. Boras could legitimately claim that it would cost an interested team only money, whereas an exchange against Madison Bumgarner, Marcus Stroman or Trevor Bauer – if that could even be completed – would need prospects and rewards. And may not happen before the deadline of July 31st.
The fact that the Astros, who had problems with depth of rotation, did not work hard to restrain Keuchel, who feared for his health. But Houston manager A.J. Hinch recently told me that he thought Keuchel would be prepared and could help somebody this year. In addition, Keuchel led the majors last year in drummers, and then started another two playoff games.
Nevertheless, the teams became more disciplined to pay according to what they planned to get and not get caught up in the recognition of their name or past performance.
That's why I think Keuchel – even once his severance pay has been withdrawn – unsigned: he still considers himself a starter and industry less than that. Who blinks first – and with what number?
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