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Few business models have emerged. Both teams have almost exactly the same percentage of actual goals expected – 51.9 for Toronto, 51.8 for Golden State – based on the location of each shot and close defenders, per second of follow-up. Warriors seem vulnerable, then inevitable.
Hell, we do not even know the state of health of three All-Stars.
Looking at Oakland, let's start there.
What is the limit of Kawhi Leonard?
Leonard has 57 points, 28 free throw attempts and 22 rebounds in two games, so it's tempting to say he's fine. Kevon Looney bounced back on Leonard as a 1980s workaholic who was trying to embody Andre the Giant. Some of those rebounds were those "from where did he come from?" Flying fragments where Leonard invokes an explosive and icy ferocity, a cold stone look – and honestly a bit alarming.
But he also worked. Draymond Green has roasted for an easy lay-up. Klay Thompson fooled him a few times. His free safety work was not so tight.
Leonard has only recorded seven singles in the second game, his second lowest total in the playoffs, per second. He only posted four times.
It does not sound like a healthy Leonard who takes up his defense:
Leonard was limping noticeably after the second game. Maybe two days off helped.
This clip also shows how the Warriors recalled their help on Leonard in Game 2. They let DeMarcus Cousins install just below the screen. Leonard, Thompson, Andre Iguodala or Alfonzo McKinnie pursued it. Golden State will live with disputed bombs like this one on 3 open shooters supporting the Raptors:
This is probably the right choice if Leonard has less than 100%. Leonard is going to make 3 out of the ordinary. But these are brutally difficult shots, and he will let a lot of it pass to sneak in the range of 2 points.
Wait, wait, who else plays?
The Warriors found something in the second half by placing Thompson on Leonard and passing Iguodala to Pascal Siakam, while Green slid all the way through the positional spectrum on Kyle Lowry.
Thompson is a little more skilled than the mediocre choices of Iguodala. Iguodala is the senior advocate for help by many. Golden State's defense reaches a frenzy level when Iguodala and Green – and their four arms – are in overtaking lanes, instead of having a single fight with Leonard:
It goes through the window if Thompson can not play. If Looney was also absent, there would be everyone on the bridge: over McKinnie, Quinn Cook and Shaun Livingston, and maybe even some great wackadoo formations with Jonas Jerebko, Green and a remaining center. They will need more offensive from the Cousins - after the pass, and maybe even some cross screens to give him an edge on the block. Is James Michael McAdoo available?
Winning a final match without Durant and Thompson (and Looney) – with this complementary cast – would be one of the major successes of the Curry-Green partnership.
Without Thompson, the Raptors could even see this "janky" box-and-one. Gadget tusks have a short life. The warriors will be ready for this. Encouraging them to spend time preparing for it is a victory in itself.
Leonard has the size and strength on Thompson. On a long run, he should understand this game. If Thompson's hamstrings limit him, the Warriors may have to argue. In this case, one of their centers – Andrew Bogut – seemed comfortable keeping Siakam in the stretch of the second match offers intriguing opportunities. Green looked good on Leonard, although it eroded his ability to help elsewhere.
The Raptors can help Leonard by playing the ball in different ways. Coming back to one side and removing Leonard from Marc Gasol's pindown – a play the Warriors will not want to change – is something to revisit:
Ditto for the corner as soon as Gasol holds the ball up, while the Leonard and Toronto point guards sneak up against each other. These have worked well in previous rounds, but the Raptors have not done so well against the Warriors.
Leonard smartly hunts ducks; he can crush Thompson at the post with a good spacing around him. The Raptors can not miss it – as Serge Ibaka did here – when he opens:
Oh yes: the possible return of Kevin Durant at some point obviously changes everything.
Golden State would recover the line of death. Would Toronto face Siakam in the middle, which I had anticipated all season but which Nick Nurse rarely used – and which could have been rendered obsolete with the acquisition of Gasol? The resurfacing of OG Anunoby would be an interesting midfield turnaround.
Even if Durant can only stand and shoot the corner 3, it would be huge. Cook changed game 2; the Warriors have played more queues with three long-term threats (Cousins, only 28 out of 97 in depth this season, do not count for the moment) instead of two or just one. The impact of an extra shooter around Curry and Thompson is exponential.
An example: Golden State likes to have both Green and its center – two non-shooters – define an offbeat screen for Curry:
When Durant is healthy, they push him back to a corner and Thompson in the other. Good luck.
Which Lowry and Gasol show up?
Two related Toronto witnesses: the combined performance of these two first-rate stars and the overall Raptor support rate.
Lowry has only 20 points on 6 out of 20 shots with 11 assists in two games. Charged charges, screens, deviations, and sneaky rebounds are good, and have a big impact on the win, but the Raptors need more good points stats (though no faults).
Toronto must punish cousins in the pick-and-roll. He is naturally pushed. Fred VanVleet was more aggressive than Lowry. I do not mind Lowry taking a step back 2 when Cousins replaces him – any goal scored by a goal is welcome – but there are 3 downs and angles of attack.
Golden State sliding Green on Lowry seemed to get rid of the Raptors. Many of my esteemed colleagues have since written that Lowry was not the kind of cutter capable of exploiting Green's wanderer. I respectfully disagree. Lowry still vibrates. He plays on his toes. He is a smart mover.
For most of his life, Lowry was a recovery and recovery engine. With Leonard, Lowry must be someone who has never had anything. He can be. A smart cut from Lowry in the third quarter of the second game has unlocked an open 3 for VanVleet, himself one of the most agile players in the league. Lowry should use these off-ball displays for Leonard, near the corners, to reduce scores.
Find everything you need to know about the NBA Finals here.
He got up and watched the match too often. Toronto had periods of stagnation and overly challenged riders at the start of the clock. Games at the highest level are so interesting at this point: even big teams can lose their rhythm for no specific reason and not recover it.
Lowry can set stray light screens when Green does not look and hang for offensive rebounds. He could also place ball screens for Leonard, but with Thompson and Green as main defenders, Golden State can simply change the game. The calculation changes a bit if Curry is stuck on Lowry or if Thompson is absent.
(I've somewhat abandoned Leonard-Danny Green's pick-and-roll as a Curry targeting method.) I've never trusted Green's post-ups, and its only impression in the Hakeem Olajuwon's backyard in the second game was mediocre.)
Meanwhile, Gasol found himself behind the Cousins during the second game – a good way to attack Boogie's feet:
Mix tactics is always healthy.
Should Raptors change more often?
Toronto has only changed 17 out of 159 off-ball screens per second of spectrum. (That sounds weak, but it matches the general visual test.) They do not even change the Curry-Draymond Green pick-and-roll – Golden State ran 16 years into the second game after only seven years in the match. Opening – when Leonard is on Green, and the switchability would seem to be the reason behind setting up Leonard on Green.
This is neither bad nor good at first sight. There are certain types of off-ball screens, such as the Golden State Centers for Thompson Selection, that you do not want to swap because of the cascading mismatches. When warriors know you are about to go off-screen, they escape early – and bolt to the edge. Oddly enough, an effective switching system against Golden State is knowing when do not to pass – as shown by Siakam in anticipation of the hard editing of Jerebko:
Siakam was successful in chasing Thompson – a tough match for any powerful striker, even as fast as Siakam:
Discover this subtle flash of Gasol on Looney:
Defending Golden State's non-shooters is almost as stressful as chasing the Splash brothers. Common sense says you should ignore these non-shooters to help them on the real threats, but go too far, and the Warriors make them filtering agents and transfer partners for their superstars. "The defense against the Warriors is totally different," Meyns Leonard of Portland told ESPN.com just days after the Warriors swept the Blazers.
On several occasions, Golden State has pushed Portland's great to help when they should not have and not help when they should have. Toronto did a better job of finding that balance two by two:
There is a lot go on there. Gasol is close enough to Looney to disrupt the transfer of Curry to Curry; he only walks away when Curry cuts the edge, then returns to Looney in case Thompson arrives. At the same time, Leonard ignores Iguodala to patrol the painting:
Leonard is sure to abandon Iguodala because Siakam presses Draymond Green nearby, in case Thompson falls out of a pindown. Siakam eventually switches to Thompson – improvised, it seems – leaving Danny Green on Draymond Green. Danny ignores Draymond to cut off Thompson's training, which exposes for half a second the transfer from Draymond to Curry:
But Danny Green knows what's going to happen and starts sprinting again – a human movement that's really hard to shoot without messing up.
Whenever you make the Warriors work so hard for a long 2, you've done well. Toronto was diligent in tracking Curry's move for 3 seconds – as Lowry does here, after Curry pushed VanVleet, he put the ball back and zoomed in:
(Thompson escaped in the second game and I wonder if Toronto will start using Danny Green, with Siakam on Iguodala and Lowry on Curry.The disadvantage is the lack of Curry size.)
Toronto in general seems reluctant to trade as many Curry shares as most opponents of the Golden State. This could be a way to simplify things. It could be a nurse going against expectations, keeping a card in her pocket. Players may not change as much as Nurse would like.
He occasionally burned Toronto:
(Look again at Gasol yo-yo-ing between helping Looney and squeezing him.)
The Warriors injured Toronto late in Game 2 with inverted Green Curry throwing spikes; Toronto failed to change one, and rushed to change another at the last second – too late.
Golden State in Game 2 has been cut and presented with a little more unpredictability. They even released their game "Cyclone", and of course, he launched Green for a lay-up. The Curry screens have led to four buckets at the height of the game – a statistic that has been much mocked though it illustrates Curry's unprecedented huge off-ball value:
When the Warriors are at full speed, they have the ability to synchronize their actions on the ball and out of the ball – time the pindowns (on the left side below) to hit at the same time as the top of the pick-and-roll :
Curry came into this part in part because the Toronto defense was centered on Thompson taking off a pindown on the right wing:
This thing is mean. This is one way to occupy four defenders at a time. How do you react when you do not know what threat is real – or if all threats are?
When time is of the essence, Golden State is easier to protect. It was a good time for match 2; Golden State scored 106.8 points for 100 possessions in the half-court, miles better than their miserable first-game count – and the best mark of all those who clung to Toronto in the playoffs, according to Clean The Glass.
The selection and off-ball cut hurt Toronto more than Curry's soft-peaks, even though the Warriors relied more heavily on the second game, per second. The off-ball action seemed to confuse the Raptors. Toronto, guardian of Golden State's non-shooters, has lost the balance between helping and staying home; the Raptors began to cling too tightly, allowing lobs and cuts through the back door.
Change is not a trap. The warriors know how to beat him. But Toronto might have watched a movie and concluded that he should do a little more in the third game.
Of course, Durant is (among other things) the Warriors' asset against switching. How far is it? We have between three and five games left in the season – and we are still so unknown.
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