Tesla beats rivals on electric vehicles as May demand surprises analysts

A key sales indicator for Tesla rebounded in the spring after a disappointing first quarter, but the company will need strong, consistent performance to bring its inventory back to levels seen earlier this year.

"More models 3 were recorded in April and May than during the first quarter," wrote JMP Securities analysts Joseph Osha and Hilary Cauley, in a note to investors. JMP has increased its estimate of model 3 shipments for 2019.

JMP has also updated its estimates for the second quarter of Tesla, as well as for the coming year. "It is clear that Tesla's second-quarter volume is expected to rebound sharply from the first quarter," said Osha and Cauley.

Nevertheless, Tesla shares are trading at nearly $ 200, well below the company's stock price of $ 300 and over in early 2019.

The month of May saw Tesla continue "to extend his lead against a still small group of real [electric vehicle] competitors ", wrote Wednesday Wednesday the Morgan Stanley analyst, Adam Jonas Jonah is widely followed on Wall Street for his reflections on both the automotive industry and electric vehicles, especially Tesla.

Jonas' note comes after investors warned that Tesla shareholders should not expect a big tech company to bail out Elon Musk's automaker, even with a drop in prices. more than 40% of the shares this year. During a phone call with investors, Jonas said that "Tesla is not really perceived as a story of growth" and that it looks more like a "history of credit and restructuring in distress".

Nevertheless, Tesla increased its total US sales in May by 73 percent from a year earlier, according to Motor Intelligence data. Meanwhile, competing electric vehicle sales of Audi, BMW, Jaguar, Chevrolet and Nissan rose 39%. Morgan Stanley also noted that Tesla's estimated US total sales of 11,300 vehicles in May were 2.6 times the total competing vehicle offerings of its competitors, up from 2.1 times last year.

Tesla started 2019 with delivery numbers below what the analysts were waiting for. Musk, during the company's first quarter teleconference, explained that logistical issues, as well as seasonality, have hurt Tesla's sales.

Morgan Stanley expects Tesla to deliver between 360,000 and 400,000 vehicles this year, which, according to Jonas, represents "an increase of about 45% to 65% over 2018". At the same time, JMP has reduced its estimate of Tesla's deliveries in 2019 20188 "very slightly, from 379,600 to 378,900", highlighting the steady increase in the volume of the cheaper model 3, along with the decline in high-end vehicles, models S and X.

Morgan Stanley has equal weighting on Tesla shares with a target price of $ 193.60. JMP has a market outperformance rating and lowered its price target on Tesla from $ 369 to $ 347 a share.