Upcoming economic data in the European session

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The decision of the ECB's June monetary policy meeting is expected later today.

Happy Thursday everyone! I hope you're doing well as we try to get things done during the session. Global trade tensions remain the main topic of discussion, as we begin the day with the United States and Mexico who would be unable to reach a compromise after the trade negotiations of yesterday.

This allowed the yen to strengthen a little earlier as Treasury yields began to weaken. For the future, we will have some economic data to get things done, but the ECB meeting will be at the heart of the European morning.

0600 GMT – Factory Order Data for Germany, April

The previous version can be found here. A look at industrial orders in Q2, which should continue to suggest weaker activity from factories compared to a year ago. A minor data point.

07:30 GMT – Germany May construction PMI

The previous version can be found here. Indication of construction activity in the German economy, which has held up relatively well despite the slowdown in the manufacturing sector. The publication here feeds the sentiment surrounding the domestic economic situation.

0900 GMT – Final figures for euro area GDP in the first quarter

The second estimate can be found here. As this is the third and final aspect, it should do little to offer a new perspective to the euro area economy. As such, the reaction to the publication of the data must be muted.

11:30 GMT – USA: May: job cuts and data on Challenger layoffs

The preliminary report can be found here. The data provides information on the number of reported layoffs by sector and region and serves as a general indicator of the labor market.

11:45 GMT – Decision of the ECB monetary policy meeting

The focus is on the session, but I would not expect the statement to present a major element. Markets will pay close attention to TLTRO details and / or interest rate prioritization, as Draghi will only reaffirm some downside risks and possibly a slight deterioration in the ECB's economic forecasts. As regards the main details of the declaration, namely the balance of risks and the forecasts, it is foreseen that they remain unchanged.

ECB President Mario Draghi's press conference at 12.30

Mr Draghi will provide the latest economic forecasts from the central bank and these should be subject to downside risks if global economic conditions continue to slow down. That said, pay attention to what he says about his confidence in the confidence that the economy will bounce back in 2H 2019 and in which direction is heading inflation. This will ultimately determine where the euro is trading, but I do not see how far it could set a different tone from the April monetary policy meeting.

That's all for the upcoming session. I wish you the best of days and good luck in your transactions!
ForexLive

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