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It's easy to lose sight of this reality every day on the trail. Every statement, every new ballot, every campaign rally is analyzed within an inch of his life.
But for the average citizen, the 2020 race for democracy is only just beginning – and what has happened so far is, in general, either totally ignored or neglected.
Witness the fall and rise of Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. She had a disastrous year-end in 2018, because, in the hope of asking questions about her claims about the Native American heritage, she released a video that she hoped would clear up things. It's the opposite.
It has become a striking line for, among others, President Donald Trump. The observers – including us – who had ranked Warren among the two or three people most likely to be the Democratic candidate had withdrawn from the top five.
But Warren realized that the significance of her situation in February 2019 was much less important than she would be in February 2020. She therefore began to develop and implement a series of detailed policy proposals to again the Amerindian wave behind out of the space as the resident policy of the wks race.
Mission accomplished. Warren is again in the top four of this week's CNN 2020 rankings, thanks to a series of solid polls and the growing sense that she is back in this contest.
Below, Warren and the nine other candidates we consider most likely to end up as a Democratic candidate against Trump in the fall of 2020.
10. Andrew Yang: Yes, the man who founded his campaign on the idea of giving $ 1,000 a month to every person aged 18 to 64 in the country is a long shot. A long shot. He will tell you if you ask him. But Yang is now one of 13 candidates to meet both the voting criteria and the criteria for donation to participate in the first two presidential debates. And given his weak donor base, he is well on his way to qualifying for the third debate as well. How many politicians who started the race in positions far superior to Yang can claim this way? (Previous ranking: 10)
9. Steve Bullock: If a candidate is likely to fall out of our list of top 10 candidates next time, it could very well be Bullock. The reason is quite simple: he can not participate in debates at the end of June. According to a CNN analysis, Bullock still has not qualified to participate in a survey or fundraiser. If voters are not able to hear (which we consider to be a strong enough argument) why Bullock should be president, he will not be able to overcome low name recognition. (Previous ranking: 9)
8. Amy Klobuchar: The Senator from Minnesota may have said a little too much when she told an audience in Iowa that the late Senator John McCain (R-Arizona) kept reciting the names of dictators at the time. Swearing of President Donald Trump. The McCain family asked him not to invoke his name in a political context and Klobuchar replied that she had a "deep respect" for the family. It is clear that Klobuchar was trying to come to terms with McCain's centrist legacy and got burned. Not a huge business, but an example of the risks of being a national candidate for the first time. (Previous ranking: 6)
7. Cory Booker: We pushed Booker up for two reasons. The first is that it is pretty clear now that the young senator from New Jersey makes Iowa his decisive state. It's smart because the only way for a candidate to break into this vast field is to succeed in Iowa. Despite the fact that some Democrats want to look beyond Iowa, the first contest in the nation will always be of paramount importance. Secondly, Booker seems to be constantly staying between 2% and 3% in polls. This puts him slightly above Klobuchar. (Previous ranking: 8)
6. Beto O 'Rourke: Here's the good side of the former Texas Congressman: he has not had a good press since almost the minute he entered the 2020 race and he's still in fifth place – with 5% support – in CNN's latest national poll on the 2020 race. The bad side? O 'Rourke did not receive much good press because he simply did not do much to move the needle or shake the impression that it is a full-fledged guy who thinks his destiny is to preside (or at least to be a candidate). (Previous ranking: 7)
5. Pete Buttigieg: Buttigieg has come a long way since the start of the campaign, but it is pretty clear now that he has fainted in the polls. According to the latest CNN survey, it accounted for only 5% nationally, after reaching a very high double digit figure in several surveys. Buttigieg's support is mainly at the expense of Warren, with whom he shares a similar coalition of white voters trained in college. (Previous ranking: 4)
4. Elizabeth Warren: See above. Warren is the strongest candidate in this race – the message for a fault, comfortable in her skin, charismatic – for several months. She is on an ascending trajectory. (Previous ranking: 5)
3. Kamala Harris: The young California senator has been as consistent as in polls. She is regularly polled in the highest numbers since she's peaked after her announcement. We like consistency because it demonstrates a clear base of support within the electorate. Harris probably also has the best chance of forming a primary coalition of white and African-American voters with university education – just like Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Barack Obama in 2008. (Previous ranking: 3)
2. Bernie Sanders: The Vermont senator sits in a strong second place – well behind Biden in national polls but comfortably ahead of all others. (Sanders got 18% in the latest CNN 2020 national survey.) What Sanders may have to face is that among the top four candidates, three – including himself – are competing for the title of the most popular Liberal. Can he beat Warren and Harris in this primary in a primary before taking Biden? (Previous ranking: 2)
1. Joe Biden: At this point, Biden is the only candidate to vote with more than 20% of votes consistently (not to mention more than 30%, which he also does). Mr. Biden is helped by getting the best favorable scores among the general electorate, which is essential in a year in which eligibility is at the forefront of voters' concerns. The question we ask ourselves is whether Biden can resist the attacks that come his way. For example, he came under heavy criticism this week for stating that he still opposed federal funding for abortion – a position that puts him at odds with most of his competitors. (Previous ranking: 1)
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