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Economists surveyed by Refinitiv predict that the Ministry of Labor's employment report on Friday indicates that 185,000 jobs were created in May, with a very low unemployment rate of 3.6% – a steady pace even if slightly less than 218,000 during the past year. The average growth in hourly earnings should be 3.2%, which would be the eighth month above the 3% mark.
Becky Frankiewicz is President of North America at ManpowerGroup, one of the largest recruitment and recruitment firms in the United States. She claims to have witnessed no break in what she calls an "unprecedented" thirst for employers for more workers.
"If we see a decline tomorrow, it's because the job market will only take a very long time before we do not have enough manpower to meet the demand," he said. said Frankiewicz. "We are seeing further tightening in a market that we believe could no longer be tightened."
The job market has had its ups and downs in recent months. In January, 312,000 jobs were created – the month of government closure and a sharp stock market fluctuation – at a surprisingly low 56,000 jobs in February.
The recovery from the Great Recession will become the longest-ever expansion in July, and despite the widespread perception among economists that the economic cycle is coming to an end, employers came back strongly in March and April. The Beige Book of the US Federal Reserve, an anecdotal survey of the country's economic situation, announced in its latest edition published Wednesday a "solidly positive but modest" outlook for the coming months.
This does not mean, however, that everything is fishing in American workplaces. The job cuts have been on the rise, according to the Challenger Gray & Christmas job retraining company, the layoffs having so far surpassed this year last year by 39%. The cuts have been concentrated in the technology and telecommunications sectors, although retail sales, together with the boom in e-commerce, have been the biggest loser of the job so far. .
Manufacturing is another weak point, with pricing and the threat of new fees, giving recruiters a break before hiring new people. IHS Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index, which measures the number of manufacturers who say their business is growing relative to their contraction, has fallen to its lowest level in nearly 10 years this month -this.
ADP, which was working on payroll, said this month was another warning sign, saying the private sector had created only 27,000 jobs in May, resulting in strong job losses. job losses in the construction sector. Although the ADP report is not a perfect guide to the count of the Ministry of Labor, it has still brought some forecasters to reduce their expectations.
Maintaining the health of the labor market is a key factor that the Federal Reserve will take into account at its June 18-19 meeting. Despite President Jay Powell's "patient" attitude, Wall Street analysts have raised their expectations of a 2019 rate cut, given the potential damage of a growing tariff battle between the United States and the United States. United, Mexico and China.
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