A problem of the size of Texas for Trump

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But a new survey from Quinnipiac University suggests that we should perhaps re-evaluate this view.

Former Vice President Joe Biden got 48% of the vote in Texas, compared to 44% for President Donald Trump. And it's not just Biden who's competing with the president in Texas; The Q poll shows that five other potential Democrat candidates – including Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris – arrive far behind Trump, in the poll's error margin.

If it was an isolated result without comparable data, we could – and should probably – reject it. But there is other data that suggests that this could be a real thing.

In particular, Gallup's state-by-state president approval figures for 2018. In Texas, 41% approved the way Trump did his job, while 52% disapproved. Compare that to the approval of Trump's 2018 work in so-called swing states like
  • Ohio (48% approve / 48% disapprove)
  • Iowa (45% / 51%)
  • Florida (43% / 51%)
  • North Carolina (45% / 50%)

So, there is that. And beyond the polls, we have real election results that confirm the possibility that Texas will become an emerging turning state. In 2018, then-Rep. Beto O 'Rourke (D) is within 2.5 points of Sen. Ted Cruz (D). And two years ago, Trump had won only 9 points at Hillary Clinton, far from his 36-point victory in neighboring Oklahoma or even his 28-point margin in Alabama.

This Q survey is then part of a trend. This is not an anomaly. The question for Democrats – or, more specifically, the prospective Democratic candidate for 2020 – is whether it is worth spending the tens of millions you would need to cover Texas TV commercials while this money could to be divided among many other (and less expensive) swing states. This is especially true when it is almost certain that both parties will spend a lot in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and (probably) Ohio – all of which are large states where television is not expensive. .

Point: Texas has never been as Republican as the popular misconceptions suggested in the 2000s. Its large and growing Hispanic population makes it an emerging state. The real question is whether Democrats will follow in 2020 or wait for 2024?

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