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According to a new CNN / Des Moines Register / Mediacom survey conducted by Selzer and Co., Biden is among the leaders who plan to join caucuses in the traditional way, in person, or through a new virtual caucus process.
Overall, 24% of voters say they are in favor of the former Vice President, 16% of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 15% of Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and 14% of the Mayor of South Bend, Indiana , Pete Buttigieg. California Senator Kamala Harris completes the 5 percent to 5 percent with 7 percent support.
Biden has consistently surpassed 30 percent in national polls since being announced in April, with its closest competitor being double-digit. But there has not been a high-quality poll in Iowa since it entered the race.
Behind the top five, the support drops sharply: two candidates (the former Texas Congressman, Beto O 'Rourke and the Minnesota Senator, Amy Klobuchar) arrive at 2%, the others at 1% or less.
The poll is the first from CNN and the Des Moines Register since the Democratic Party of Iowa formally proposed rules for its new virtual caucus. The rules allocate 90% of the state delegate equivalents based on the results among the caucus members in person, while 10% will be based on the results of those practicing the caucus virtually, regardless of the actual number of people who choose to participate in both directions.
According to the survey, 28% of those who say that they will definitely or probably participate at this stage say that they will probably do it virtually. Although Biden scores better among likely virtual participants (33%) than among in-person caucus participants (23%), combining caucus participants' preferences under the new rules does not move numbers in a meaningful way. meaningful for the candidates of what they would have been. if the 90: 10 ratio has not been applied.
But these rules could bring a lot of new members to caucuses next February. Those who say they are likely to participate are more likely to be new members of the caucus (52% versus 17% of those who say they attend in person), they are more likely to register as self-employed (31% compared to 11% among potential participants in person) and they are younger (63% under 45 versus 51% among participants in person).
Beyond Biden's lower overall support, the survey also suggests warning signs for him under these numbers. Its supporters are less likely than others to say they are "extremely enthusiastic" about it (29% versus 39% of all other candidates and 43% of those closest to Sanders, Warren or Buttigieg) . He also remains the best-known candidate in the field, suggesting that he has less room to develop than other candidates that members of Iowa's Democratic constituency groups continue to know.
The tighter competition in Iowa also suggests a tougher challenge for the 2016 finalist, Sanders, than it is located elsewhere. In most national polls, he held second place solo or was competitive with Biden, as he had done in previous polls of Iowa. In this survey, Sanders is better off with people less likely to come to caucus. Among those who say that they will probably attend in person, it is at 20%, while among those who say they are really present, it is at 14%. This scheme is valid for those who plan to attend virtually.
The results are also remarkable for the lack of traction of most of the 23 field-tested candidates. The investigation asked likely caucus members to nominate their first and second choice candidates, then for each of the other candidates, asked if the prospective caucus candidate was "actively considering" this. candidate or not.
Of the actual in-person caucus members, only five candidates were actively considered: Biden (61%), Warren (61%), Sanders (56%), Buttigieg (52%) and Harris (52%). About 4 in 10 were Cory Booker (43%) and O & Rourke (39%). Among potential virtual visitors, the situation is similar.
What is remarkable about virtual and in-person virtual caucus participants is the fact that few people even consider lower-ranking candidates. Thirteen of the 23 tested candidates are under study by less than two out of ten in one or the other group, which includes the two candidates who won the election at the same time. Statewide (Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper, Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock) as well as those who make outside offers. for the nomination (Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, Wayne Messam).
Regardless of candidate preferences, about two-thirds of the likely caucus members, no matter how they plan to participate, say that they would prefer that the winner in Iowa be someone who has likely to beat Trump over a candidate who shares his point of view on major issues.
But when asked to choose from the desirable qualities of a candidate, Electability was ranked fourth on a list of seven for both groups of possible caucus participants. A majority in both groups identified integrity as a major asset (56% for people, 61% for virtual users) and 40% for people who chose intelligence. Just over one-third of each group chose leadership (34% in-person, 36% online) and about one-quarter opted for the election (25% in-person and 23% online).
The Iowa caucus members are probably divided on how congressional Democrats should handle the possibility of an impeachment proceeding for Trump.
About half of the likely Iowa caucus members (48%, regardless of how they participate), feel that they think that Democrats in Congress should continue to investigate the president rather than d & # 39; 39, to now move on to a formal impeachment procedure. Fewer members in each group think they think the congressional Democrats would evade their constitutional duty if they did not proceed with the impeachment process as soon as possible (42% of the representatives in person and 45% among the virtual ones).
The CNN / Des Moines Register / Mediacom survey was conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, June 2-5, on a random sample of 600 likely Democratic Caucus participants on fixed lines. or on mobile phones by a live interviewer. The sample included 433 people who stated that they intended to attend caucuses in person and 167 who stated that they intended to attend meetings virtually. The results of the combined sample of people likely to attend caucuses have a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points; this is 4.7 points for those planning to attend in person, 7.6 points for those who plan to attend virtually.
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