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Seoul, South Korea – The explosions have exploded away from the bustling megacities of Asia, but the attack of two oilmen in the strategic strait of Ormuz this week is touching the heart of the tributary economies of oil imports from this region.
While the violence only directly affected two countries in the region, one of the targeted vessels was operated by a Tokyo-based company; a nearby-operated ship operated by South Korea has helped rescue sailors – it will upset the major economies of all of Asia.
Officials, analysts and media commentators on Friday stressed the importance of the Strait of Ormuz for Asia, calling it a crucial lifeline, and there was a keen interest in more of details about the attack still parsimonious and about what the United States and Iran would do. following.
In the end, whether Asia abandons it, as some analysts predict, or its economies are shaking, the attack highlights the widespread concerns over the extreme dependence of a single water band for oil. which feeds much of the shared resources of the region. progress.
Here is an overview of how Asia is managing the growing tensions in a remote but economically crucial area compiled by PA reporters from around the world:
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WHY ASIA THINKS
Oil, of course.
Japan, South Korea and China do not have enough. This is the case of the Middle East, and much of it passes through the narrow strait of Hormuz.
This could leave Asia vulnerable to supply disruptions due to US-Iran tensions or strait violence.
The attack comes months after Iran threatened to close the strait to retaliate against US economic sanctions, which tightened in April when the Trump government decided to end sanctions exemptions. for the five largest importers of Iranian oil, including China and US allies, South Korea and Japan.
Japan is the world's fourth largest consumer of oil – after the United States, China and India – and depends on the Middle East for 80% of its crude oil supplies. The Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011 resulted in a dramatic reduction in nuclear power generation and increased imports of natural gas, crude oil, fuel oil and coal.
In order to comply with Washington, Japan has declared that it no longer imports Iranian oil. Officials also said that Japanese oil companies are complying with the embargo because they do not want to be punished. But Japan still receives oil from other Middle Eastern countries using the Strait of Ormuz for its transport.
South Korea, the world's fifth largest importer of crude oil, also depends on the Middle East for the vast majority of its supplies.
Last month, South Korea stopped importing Iranian oil after the end of its renouncement of US sanctions against Tehran. It reportedly attempted to increase oil imports from other countries, such as Qatar and the United States.
China, the world's largest importer of Iranian oil, "understands that its growth model is vulnerable to lack of energy sovereignty," according to market analyst Kyle Rodda of IG, an online trading provider, which has been working for several years to diversify its suppliers. This means being interested in Southeast Asia and, increasingly, in some African oil-producing countries.
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GEOGRAPHY AND POLITICS
Asia and the Middle East are linked by a flow of oil, much of which comes from the sea and depends on the Strait of Hormuz, which is the passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
In April, Iran threatened to close the strait. Iran also looks set to break a 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, which US President Donald Trump pulled out of last year. The agreement allowed Tehran to agree to limit its uranium enrichment in exchange for the lifting of crippling sanctions.
For Japan and South Korea, extreme political unrest accompanies economic worries about the violence in the Strait.
The two countries want to maintain their relations with Washington, the main trading partner and military protector. But they must also keep their economies to the bottom, which requires a calming of tensions between Washington and Tehran.
Conservative Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe was in Tehran, seeking to do exactly that, when the attack occurred.
Its limits for regulating simmering animosity, however, were highlighted by both the timing of the attack and by a commentary by Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who told Abe that he had nothing to say to Trump.
In Japan, the world's third largest economy, the attack of a tanker made the headlines.
The Nikkei newspaper, the main Japanese business daily, said that if mines were planted in the Strait of Ormuz, "the oil trade would be paralyzed." The Tokyo Shimbun newspaper described the "vital link" of the Strait of Hormuz in Japan.
Although the Japanese Minister of Economy and Industry said that there would be no immediate effect on the stability of the energy supply, the Tokyo Shimbun stressed "the possibility that the lives of Japanese be affected. "
Concerned by instability in the Middle East, South Korea has been working since the beginning of the energy crisis to diversify its sources of crude oil.
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L & # 39; FUTURE
Analysts said it was highly unlikely that Iran is following up on its threat to close the strait. In fact, a shutdown could also disrupt Iran's own exports to China, which is working with Russia to build pipelines and other infrastructure that can transport oil and gas to China.
For Japan, the attack in the Strait of Ormuz does not pose an imminent threat to Tokyo's oil supply, said Paul Sheldon, senior geopolitical advisor at S & P Global Platts Analytics .
"We think it's not a crisis yet," he said of tensions.
Seo Sang-young, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities, said Seoul would likely be able to withstand a modest rise in oil prices, unless there is a full military confrontation.
"Rising crude prices could have negative consequences for sectors such as airlines, chemicals and shipping, but could also benefit some companies, such as energy companies (including refineries), which produce and export petroleum products like gasoline, "Seo said. the diversity of the industrial scale of South Korea. The South Korean shipbuilding sector could also benefit, as higher oil prices could further stimulate the growing demand for liquefied natural gas, or LNG, which means more orders for giant tankers carrying this gas.
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Authors Yuri Kageyama in Tokyo, Kim Tong-hyung and Hyung-jin Kim in Seoul, Yanan Wang in Beijing, Annabelle Liang in Singapore and Alexandra Olson in Washington contributed to the writing of this report.
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