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The Saturday night Phillies-Mets showdown in eastern NL (Fox at 19:15) gives us the opportunity to update disappointing campaigns for both teams from a market perspective.
Supporters of everyone would be back this season if they supported their favorites each time. Enter the series …
– Philadelphia was down by just over five betting units in 2019. The betting markets were adapting rather quickly to the lack of firepower of the planned divisional dynamo. Frankly, the Phils were more disappointing for their fans than suggested "minus five units".
– The Mets are the National League's worst betting team, losing nearly 17 units after losing the Subway series final to the Yankees. The odds makers and sharps have largely overestimated the chances of this team to qualify for the playoffs. The market is slow to give the team the price of a doormat despite the results obtained.
The recent form has been really ugly. The Mets started the series with a 2-8 record in their last 10 games, 12-21 to 33. Although Philadelphia recently swept a four-game home series of the Mets, the Phils are 4 -15 to 19 all the others.
The Phillies must be saddened not to see the Mets again until the end of August.
Look forward:
- Philadelphia, despite a slower start than expected, is still in the heat of the moment. That's because almost the entire NL is at the heart of the wild-card race. In recent times, all 15 teams on the senior circuit, with the exception of three of them, had a winning percentage of between 0.450 and 0.530.
Bryce Harper continues to be the elephant in the room, but not on the ground, trampling the pitchers. As we have recently documented in this space, it hits well below expectations during a season of high scores. If he finds something closer to the top of his career, the Phillies have plenty of time to become relevant and bettors can make money.
It is important to note that the extreme parity of the National League could help launch the Phils (or any other competitor) to a big second half. Any team that would assemble their pieces in a productive way could surprise the market and suddenly make themselves better than everyone else, with the exception of the Dodgers.
The Mets can rejoice that their recent glove is almost finished. As we discussed before it started, their schedule before the break of the stars is brutal. The Mets are probably not as bad as they seem to be in the recent form.
Their schedule was drastically reduced in the first 25 games after the break, when they played seven games with the Marlins, six with the Pirates, four with the Giants, three with the Padres and three with the White Sox. Two games in Minnesota will be the only ones against a team likely to play in the playoffs of this segment.
There is a chance to run towards .500 against this slighter slate. And if a change in direction helps eliminate a sneaky attitude, there is even a chance for an extreme scenario that would reward investors.
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