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On Sunday, the National Hurricane Center increased by 50% the chances that a system is developing in the Gulf by mid-week. Depending on the computer model of your choice, the system that follows could pose a problem – or worse – between the panhandle of Florida and southern Louisiana.
Although it is still too early to tell if this system will be powerful enough to be named (it would be Barry, by the way), more interesting is "how" all this could happen.
For the most part, meteorologists are vigilantly scrutinizing the Gulf or the Atlantic Ocean from June to November for signs that low-pressure systems are developing and may be strengthening.
To get a tropical system, you need hot water, weak winds in the direction and thunderstorms to form around the low pressure. The three ingredients are present.
At the beginning of the week, a sunken front, along which almost daily thunderstorms form in the southeastern United States, will end up in the Gulf.
The remnants of these storms will help develop a low-pressure system in the very hot waters of Florida's "Big Bend" in the Gulf of Mexico. The temperatures are there in the mid-80s.
A ridge of high pressure keeps the southwest firecracker hot and humid since the holidays and this same characteristic keeps the upper winds.
Under this thermal dome, computer models speculate that the depression will begin to form by Wednesday.
The more aggressive European model is rapidly intensifying the system until it reaches at least the strength of tropical storms and keeps it in the Gulf, flooding the western regions of the Sunshine State with torrential rains on the weekend. Then the system heads west with southern Louisiana in its line of sight.
Do not forget that both models do their best when the low pressure is actually formed and that, in the meantime, their predictions will exhibit large variances. However, at this point, what we are looking for the most is the consistency of trends. Both models indicate the overall low pressure formation scenario in the Gulf, although the specifics and timing vary somewhat.
This is probably one of the reasons why the agency in charge of tracking and forecasting the tropical system has increased its five-day forecast of 20% Saturday to 50-50 Sunday.
So, if you are a resident of the Gulf Coast, what should you do? Nothing now – but stay alert. Check with us that we will follow this system throughout the week.
These types of systems are particularly delicate in relation to, say, a growing and threatening whirlpool, easily identifiable in the ocean and targeting a shoreline. Every tropical threat can bring varying amounts of wind and water, so you have to prepare yourself anyway.
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