"Completely terrifying": a study warns oceans saturated with carbon to a tipping point that could trigger mass extinction

The continued accumulation of carbon dioxide in the world's oceans – which shows no sign of stopping due to the endless consumption of fossil fuels of humanity– is likely to trigger a chemical reaction in the Earth's carbon cycle similar to those that occurred just before the massive extinction events, according to a new study.

Daniel Rothman, professor of geophysics at MIT, released new data on Monday that today's carbon levels could quickly approach a tipping threshold that could trigger extreme acidification of the oceans similar to that which contributed to Permian-Triassic mass extinction occurred about 250 million years ago.

Rothman's new research comes two years after predicting that a mass extinction event could take place at the end of the century. Since 2017, he has been trying to understand how life on Earth could be shattered by the increase in carbon emissions in the oceans.

"If we push the earth system too far, it takes over and determines its own response, and after that time we will not be able to do anything about it."
-Timothy Lenton, University of Exeter

Rothman created a model in which he simulated the addition of carbon dioxide in the oceans, finding that when gas was added to an already stable marine environment, it only produced a temporary acidification.

However, when it continually pumped carbon into the oceans, as humans have been doing at increasing levels since the late eighteenth century, the ocean model has finally reached a threshold that triggered what MIT has called "a cascade of chemical reactions" or "excitation," causing extreme acidification and worsening of carbon-warming effects added to the original.

Over the past 540 million years, these chemical reactions have occurred at different times, Rothman noted.

But the most significant events occurred around four of the five massive extinctions – and the oceans of today absorb carbon much faster than before Permian-Triassic extinction, in which 90% of life on Earth is extinct.

The planet can now be "on the brink of excitement," Rothman said MIT News.

On social media, one critic described the implications of the study on life on Earth as "completely terrifying".

The study, conducted with the help of NASA and the National Science Foundation, also indicates that although humans have only been injecting carbon into the oceans for hundreds of years, it was not until thousands of years before volcanic eruptions occur. on the other extinctions, the result will probably be the same.

"Once we get past the threshold, the way we got there may not matter," Rothman said. MIT News. "Once you have overcome this problem, you must understand how the Earth works and make its own journey."

Other scientists said that the study, which will be published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, represents a clear call for immediate action to significantly reduce the amount of carbon pumped into the world's oceans. Climate action groups and grassroots movements have long called on governments to impose a moratorium on drilling using fossil fuels, which dump about one billion tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere. every year.

"We already know that our CO2-emitting actions will have consequences for millennia," said Timothy Lenton, a professor of climate change science and terrestrial systems at Exeter University. "This study suggests that these consequences could be much more dramatic than expected."

"If we push the Earth system too far," said Lenton, "he will take over and determine his own answer, and after that time we will not be able to do anything about it."