Economic Calendar – Top 5 Things To Watch For This Week By Investing.com

Investing.com – Investors will be alert this week to the US Federal Reserve's response to fears of a recession triggered by the reversal of the Treasury yield curve.

The Fed will hold its annual rally at Jackson Hole towards the end of the week, with President Jerome Powell in front of the forum on Friday. The Fed will release the minutes of its July meeting on Wednesday, during which it lowered interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis.

This, along with the minutes, the economic data and the profits of the European Central Bank, will offer investors a lot to chew for. Here's what you need to know to start your week.

1. Jackson Hole

On Thursday, Fed officials will gather in Wyoming for an annual summit that will be closely scrutinized by investors for any indication of the future trajectory of monetary policy. The highlight of the forum will be a speech by Fed President Jerome Powell on Friday.

Markets have already taken into account a quarter-point interest in September, now that the long-awaited reversal of the two-year / 10-year Treasury yield curve has actually occurred. . However, it is unclear whether the Fed could still be tempted to take stronger action to deal with a possible economic slowdown in the face of rising trade tensions between the US and China.

2. Fed report

The US central bank is expected to publish the minutes of its July meeting on Wednesday, which will reveal the strength of support for its first rate cut for more than a decade. Powell has described it as a "mid-cycle adjustment" rather than the beginning of a major relaxation cycle.

The decision was not unanimous as two FOMC members voted against a rate cut citing signs of strength in the economy, but considering what has happened in the bond and equity markets since that meeting, policy makers could now consider a complete easing cycle.

3. Minutes of the ECB meeting

The ECB will release its July meeting on Thursday. This meeting saw the policy remain unchanged, but the ECB adjusted its forecasts to indicate that rates could fall, paving the way for a cut in September. The ECB also said it could revive its quantitative easing program in the coming months.

Before the minute, investors will be informed about the health of manufacturing and services sectors in the euro area. Data from the German PMI will be closely followed after the contraction of the largest economy in the euro area in the second quarter, fueling fears of a recessionary outlook.

4. Economic data

The US economic calendar is clear this week with reports on (and both backed up by consumer confidence, rising wages and lower mortgage rates) the key releases to watch for.

Canada must publish its reports on Wednesday and before next week.

5. Gains at retail

Retail sales will continue this week with a big box retailer Target (NYSE 🙂 and the renovation chain Home Depot (NYSE 🙂 due to the publication of quarterly results. Lowe's (NYSE :), Kohls (NYSE 🙂 and TJX (NYSE 🙂 are among other retailers that also publish figures that will allow investors to better understand the evolution of consumption.

Last Thursday, industry giant Walmart (NYSE 🙂 raised its earnings guidance for the remainder of the year and announced a sales increase comparable to that of the United States in the second quarter. This fact, combined with an optimistic report on, has eased fears of an economy in recession against a backdrop of trade tensions and slowing growth abroad.

–Reuters contributed to this report