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His most enduring conservative legacy might well be to turn the trade war into an economic wreck such that none of the parties are getting close to tariffs for decades.
In fact, I wonder if Trump's trade policy could become so unpopular by next year that even some like-minded Democrat candidates will have to rush to the center to try to recruit voters who would feel uncomfortable with she. Elizabeth Warren's trade agenda is highly protectionist in its own right and requires, as a precondition for negotiations, that potential trading partners respect certain labor, tax, energy and environmental standards that even US United do not respect for the moment. If the US finds itself in recession and the public concludes that Trump's trade war with China is the prime suspect (a belief that will be strongly encouraged by the media), how aggressive can Warren be in trying to to overturn responsibility away from tariffs and on Wall Street?
Whether or not Trump creates a long-term public consensus for free trade, it is unlikely that an ardent anti-Trumpism among Democrats will create a short-term democratic consensus in his favor.
NBC has not provided any partisan breakdown, but its article notes that "Democrats and Independents are much more supportive than they were four years ago." That's the best scenario for the protectionists here, that is to say that the new love of free trade is pure, stupid opposition to all that Trump does. Even if we avoid the recession and the economy stays healthy next fall, a critical mass of Dems will decide that politics is bad because everything the orange man does is bad.
The worst case scenario for protectionists? Well…
In the National Association for Business Economics survey released Monday, 72% of economists predicted a recession by the end of 2021. This is up from 67% in February and according to data collected by more than 200 people.
The new figure combines the 38% of economists who predict a recession in 2020 with the 34% who say they see a fall on the US economy in 2021. In a survey conducted in February, 42 % said they had witnessed a 2020 crisis, while just 25% expected one in 2021.
Trump already incorporates preventative scapegoats into his speech, insisting that the economy has never been so good while informing the country that if he is wrong, it is certainly not his fault:
… ..The Fed's rate, over a fairly short period, should be reduced by at least 100 basis points, with perhaps some quantitative easing as well. If this happens, our economy would be even better and the world economy would grow stronger and faster, which would be good for everyone!
– Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 19, 2019
Having already adopted tax cuts and alienated the Democrats to the point that no infrastructure stimulus is in sight, it has only limited legislative tools to try to make it flourish. growth in the event of a slowdown in the economy. So we wonder what strange shapes his panic might take if the monthly numbers started to slow down. Would he try to fire Powell? Would he give in to China on the trade in a desperate attempt to reverse the unemployment trends? Would he start talking every day on Twitter about a vast left-wing conspiracy to belittle the economy in hopes of defeating him next fall? In fact, he has already started doing this, notes the Times:
"The Fake News Media are doing everything they can to make the economy grow because they think it will be bad for me and my reelection," Trump tweeted last week. "The problem they have, is that the economy is too strong and we will soon be making big money on trade, and everyone knows it, including China!"
Mr. Trump repeated these claims in private discussions with aides and allies, insisting that his critics were trying to remove what he considered his calling card to be reelected. Trump was agitated in the economy talks and media reports about warnings of a possible recession. He said the forces that did not want his victory exaggerated the damage caused by his trade war, according to people who spoke to him. And several collaborators agree with him that the media highlight economic fears, reinforcing his feeling of being justified, said relatives of the president.
WaPo explains that, behind closed doors, he accused his enemies of producing dummy data to shape public opinion: other forecasters submit biased data to thwart his reelection, according to a Republican close to the US. administration that has been informed of some of the conversations. "I'm going to find a way to pin it on Soros.
By the way, this same poll found that 89% were in favor of universal controls of firearms purchase history and 62%, favoring the ban on assault weapons, which which is consistent with other recent surveys. Is Trump still open to an expanding background check? Twelve days ago he m said"I'm trying to do background checks. I think background checks are important. Yesterday, he seemed more cautious by saying, "We have a lot of background checks right now," and pointed out that mental illness was the main problem to solve. It seems that gun rights advocates have been talking to him since his insta-reaction after the shootings in El Paso and Dayton.
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