How the 2020 candidates are dividing in the polls up to now

Six months into the campaign, Democratic presidential candidates are developing the support base they hope will lead them to the White House. Using data from Morning Consult polls, POLITICO analyzed the results obtained by these candidates among Democratic primary voters of different races, ages, sexes, incomes and levels of education. The data provide insight into how the support of candidates has broken down and evolved according to demographics.

Biden and Sanders fight for Hispanic support

According to the Pew Research Center, 2020 marks the first year in which Hispanic voters are ahead of black voters as the largest group of eligible minority voters.

Among the national vanguards, Bernie Sanders was the favorite of Hispanic voters in the Democratic Republic – the top choice of 40% – before Joe Biden declared his candidacy. Since then, Sanders and Biden are in an extreme deadlock for the vote of this group, without breaking with the fight that led to two Democratic debates.

Black voters still love Biden and Sanders but prefer Harris to Warren

While the Hispanic electoral bloc is growing, these voters are not going to the polls at the same pace as black voters, who have participation rates 10 to 20 points higher than those of Latinos, according to Pew.

The ranking of candidates among black voters corresponds to that of Democratic voters, with one notable exception: Black voters consistently prefer Kamala Harris to Elizabeth Warren. But Biden's lead among this critical population has remained stable and considerable in Morning Consult polls. At his best, Biden gained 29 points more than the closest candidate, Bernie Sanders, the week before the first democratic debate.

Warren leads among the rich and educated, Sanders among the poor and uneducated

In economics, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders read the same hymnal. Both call for a progressive platform that includes the redistribution of first-percent wealth to support programs for low-income Americans. Despite similar political positions, incomes seem to divide their Democratic supporters.

Among the poorest Democratic voters earning less than $ 50,000 a year, Sanders has always defeated Warren by almost 10 points. In contrast to the tax bracket, Warren has made big gains among Americans whose profits exceed six figures, slightly ahead of Sanders since the first Democratic debates in June.

Education has more sharply divided Sanders and Warren. Over the course of the campaign, Warren became the most popular candidate among the most educated Democrats. By mid-May, Warren had overtaken Sanders among voters with a postgraduate degree. Today, the more educated the elector, the more likely he is to support Warren. Sanders keeps a large lead over Americans who have not gone to university and the two are getting closer to those with a bachelor's degree.

Women prefer Warren to Harris, although support varies by race.

Kamala Harris is Elizabeth Warren's closest rival in the Morning Consult survey. Among the Democratic women, Warren took advantage over Harris early April, a month after announcing his candidacy. Harris temporarily jumped on Warren after his first successful fight with Joe Biden, but went just as well.

Harris's struggles for debate did not cost Warren his momentum. She continued to win with women, although women's support for both women and men was divided along racial lines. Black women have always preferred Harris and white women prefer Warren.

Buttigieg overtakes O'Rourke among the oldest, richest and whitest voters; both hurt with black voters

Beto O'Rourke was once a rising star in the field of Democrats from 2020 – until the arrival of Pete Buttigieg. Buttigieg quickly overtook O'Rourke after announcing his candidacy and was in the top five of the Morning Consult survey.

After the announcement, Buttigieg quickly overtook O'Rourke as the preferred candidate, realizing the largest gains among White Democrat voters, those earning over $ 100,000 and voters over the age of 65.

But Buttigieg has overtaken O'Rourke with voters from all income groups, all ages and all white voters. He did not have the same success with black voters, admitting he had trouble attracting support. While O'Rourke's fall from darling media contender to an average candidate continued during the first two debates, the two candidates found themselves in the basement of black support.

In the fight to attract more diverse support, the proportion of Buttigieg's white supporters has been stubbornly stuck well above 80%, often 15 percentage points higher than the percentage of white voters in our poll .

The base of guys Andrew Yang continues

Buttigieg is not the only candidate to have a favorable base for a demographic group. Andrew Yang's supporters are extremely male, making up 70 percent of his base, 25 percentage points higher than the percentage of all male Democratic primary voters.

Yang's strong male support can be linked to the source of his initial popularity: the Internet. Specifically, forums like Reddit with a mostly male user base. Even after successfully completing both stages of the debate, its heavily male-dominated base has not changed much.

Biden and Sanders keep their titles while the rest of the top five face off

Despite the moves between the Democratic electoral blocs, the top line barely moved. Biden and Sanders have retained their grip on the first and second places since the start of the race. The other top five countries have sometimes exchanged positions, but overall, it is too early to say whether a more serious competition for the nomination is yet to come.

Development by Beatrice Jin.