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WASHINGTON – First, it was Kamala Harris. Then Joe Biden. Now, Pete Buttigieg.
All three are showing ads in Iowa, announcing a new, faster pace in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination of 2020 as well as the need, according to Democratic insiders, to check out the terrific match at floor of the Senator of Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren.
"These campaigns need to catch up with Elizabeth Warren in terms of the organization," said Matt Paul, who led the successful Iowa caucus campaign, nominated for the Hillary Clinton party, in 2016.
While former vice president Biden and California senator Harris stand at the opposite of the diamond of the four contenders escaped the top caucus in the nation and at the party's nomination, they both react as race candidates could follow, assess the strengths of the various competitors – including theirs – and prevent one of them from setting too much of a lead.
It's a dynamic that promises to unfold as long as Biden, Harris, Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. – or other candidates, like Buttigieg perhaps – remain competitive. And while Democratic strategists are less likely to talk about Sanders, he still has a solid base of enthusiasts in Iowa and in the country that can be activated, such as Warren's, without the help of television or television. of the radio.
Ed Slaughter, a former political pollster and professional cyclist who ran marathons, said spending on first-time ads – which are broadcast more than four months before Iowans goes to caucus – is a way for candidates to measure up to measure each other.
"There will be waves during the race kilometers where they will test each other to see if the other marathon runners will be able to keep up the pace, testing again and again," Slaughter said. "I'm going to accelerate at a pace that I know I can not maintain until the end of the race, so there is a calculated risk."
Harris is perhaps the simplest example to date. To date, she has spent just under $ 350,000 on in-state commercials, almost all during the first week of her television appearance. Although she still broadcasts spots – avoiding the blow that she removed from the television – it would have been difficult for her to maintain her level of advertising via caucuses in early February. This is true in part because commercial time becomes more expensive because candidates are increasingly solicited to buy it.
There is no doubt that Harris, who also organized a five – day bus tour to Iowa earlier this month, needs a boost in both the US and the United States. State and national level. After a renewed interest following a lively debate in late June, she saw her number of polls dwindle. And if she can not make a good performance in Iowa, say Democratic officials, this could hurt her very badly, not only in the rest of the early states, but also in the eyes of her Californian compatriots, who are starting to vote early on the same day as the caucuses.
According to Los Angeles-based Democratic strategist Dave Jacobson, California has by far the largest number of delegates available for the Democratic convention and its constituents will closely monitor the results in Iowa.
"Time is running out," he said. "She must have good performances in Iowa."
Biden's first purchase, which hung behind Harris's one week or so, was $ 500,000. Like Harris, he does not roll money. She had just over $ 13 million in the bank at the end of June and it was just under $ 11 million.
Both campaigns should have some idea of how their messages behave with Iowa voters – whether ads are running or not – fast enough. The Harris spot echoes Clinton's first advertisement in Iowa in August 2015 in the sense that she stages her mother and Clinton's "3 am" in 2007. Announcement in which it is about Harris's willingness to work at "3 am" so that voters can rest easily. Mr. Biden reminds voters of the topics he has been focusing on since his launch and during the presidential debates: his ties to President Barack Obama and the idea that he is the most democratic eligible.
For Buttigieg, which had close to $ 23 million in the bank at the end of June, the mere fact of showing ads on the radio at the same time that Biden and Harris appeared on television is a sign for the participants in caucus that he is in the leading group, and not back remains of the field. His poll in Iowa places him between these groups – at 7.5% of the Real Clear Politics average he is 6 points behind Harris and 4 points ahead of Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D -Minn.
Biden is 26% of this average, Warren 18% and Sanders 14%.
With Buttigieg money ahead of his support, the play broadcast would seem to be a no-brainer. He is targeting his posts to coincide with his recently released plan for rural America, which is designed to connect to Midwestern roots that set it apart from coastal candidates at the top of Iowa and national surveys.
Although these three candidates are not the only ones to have posted ads in Iowa, several others have done so at different times to reinforce the name identification or to show donors what to do. They do it with the money they've received – the group of high-level competitors who enter at the same time represent a milestone in the 2020 race.
Both Harris and Biden have had difficulty getting the kind of revolving renewable and modest contributions that have fueled Warren and Sanders so far. The initial $ 500,000 purchase from Biden is large enough to show that he is serious but not enough to commit to running his entire treasure in the state.
The challenge for all Iowa candidates, as is left across the country, is that the race is unstable enough to prevent taking issues and moving to more attractive terrain.
"It's clear that Iowa is up for grabs and that no candidate has blocked it," said a Harris aide. "We want to play there, we want to compete to win there, I think you will have to do decently enough in Iowa to continue to compete in the long run."
CLARIFICATION (August 21, 2019, 3:30 pm ET): In an earlier version of this story, a reference to the new advertisement by the mayor of South Bend Mayor, Indiana, seemed to suggest their appearance on television. The story has been updated to clarify that it 's about radio ads.
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